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@cinyc9

Jan 14

@GovDunleavy

AK @GovDunleavy won outright by getting a majority of first preferences. What would have happened had the RCV algorithms been run?

As the gif below shows, @BillWalkerAk would have been eliminated in the penultimate round, and Dunleavy would have beaten @Les_Gara_InAk by about 19

Static precinct winner maps of the hypothetical RCV rounds.

(It's pretty Walker gold outside of Anchorage until the final round - proving once again that land doesn't vote, especially in Alaska.

ICYMI from earlier this week, links to the spreadsheet used to make this map:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

And the Python Script used to generate the RCV csvs that went into converting the CVR to make the csv behind the spreadsheet:
github.com/thecinyc/AK-CVR

Read 4 tweets

cinyc

@cinyc9

Jan 6

I've finally preliminarily parsed the AK US House and Senate CVRs. Things add up, but still may be off at the edges.

Unlike in the special, had Palin been eliminated, Begich would have lost 55.4-44.6%. This is slightly worse than Palin's 55-45% actual performance.

Beigich would have won a head-to-head against Palin 60.6-39.4%.

@ak_elections

Senate parse is here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

House parse here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

5 precincts weren't included in the CVR or final results: Ambler, Kiana, Kobuk, Noorvik and St. George Island.

Is this due to the ballots not arriving to Juneau/Nome on time, @ak_elections?

Read 8 tweets

cinyc

@cinyc9

Dec 7, 2022

@leezeldin

Map of the NYC @leezeldin - 2020 Trump "swing" on the 2022 precinct map. The redder the precinct, the better Zeldin did vs Trump '20.

The reddest areas were in NE Queens, S Brooklyn and the whitest parts of Bronx.

Overall, Zeldin improved on Trump's 2-party PCT by 7.2 points.

Same map, this time using the 7.2 point citywide swing as the dividing line between red and blue, to put things into sharper perspective.

Gif showing the NYC 2022 Gov precinct winner map, 2020 Pres precinct winner on the 2022 precinct map and the two swing maps.

Read 8 tweets

cinyc

@cinyc9

Dec 6, 2022

@LeeZeldin

NYC's results are now official. @LeeZeldin received 30.2% of the citywide vote. Here is the precinct winner map:

Corporate wants you to spot the differences from the election night results map by using this gif:

(No, the Assembly district overlays, graying out Long Island and making NJ the same piss yellow color as their license plates doesn't count.)

Slight correction:

Write ins were ~0.2% of the vote. Zeldin is on 30.2% WITHOUT write-ins/30.1% with write-ins, largely due to rounding. Hochul falls from 69.8% to 69.7% with write-ins.

Read 4 tweets

cinyc

@cinyc9

Nov 11, 2022

My first very rough cut projection of where things will probably land in Alaska after the uncounted absentee, early and questioned votes are counted. This was a very simple calculation assuming the abs and early votes broke as prior ones did or...

1/3

@MikeDunleavyGov

...in the HDs where no absentees have been counted, as the overall vote did. I assumed questioned will vote as overall vote, too, for lack of data thus far (0 have been counted.

@MikeDunleavyGov likely gets over 50% and wins outright; @MaryPeltola comes close, but needs RCV

2/3

@lisamurkowski

.@lisamurkowski likely barely edges out @KellyForAlaska in round 1. Murkowksi likely wins because Democrat Pat Chesbro's votes will break toward her - and there are more of those than Kelley votes.

All very preliminary and subject to change.

3/3

Read 4 tweets

cinyc

@cinyc9

Nov 9, 2022

Now that the dust has settled (sort of) and I’ve caught up in making my interactive precinct maps (again - sort of) here’s a list of the maps I was up to making last night:

Starting with the last - always - Alaska: AK-AL, AK-Sen, AK-Gov by Precinct & HD:

cinycmaps.com/index.php/22-l…

Oklahoma Gov & State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Governor Stitt won big, despite some polls showing a close race (Twitter card is still test data):

cinycmaps.com/index.php/22-l…

North Carolina Senate and both NC Supreme Court races. Rs swept all 3 (again, the Twitter card is test data). There are maps by vote type, too:

cinycmaps.com/index.php/22-l…

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