Good morning, AK!

Thread of the RCV state of some close AK State House races that people have requested over the past few days.

Caveats:
-Data is from Cast Vote Record. It still is missing 61 rural ED precincts. I'll add those back in if possible.
-ABS & Q still outstanding. First, HD-6. One precinct is still missing from the CVR - Seldovia.

Sarah Vance (R) leads Brent Johnson (NON) by about 5 points before and 6 points after RCV, as most Dawson Slaughter (R) votes spoil, but more go to Vance than Johnson.

Missing: ~1,400 ABS, up to 348 Question.

Thread on my AK CVR-reading code, and the AK CVR generally.

The python code available on Github here:


It's split up into two files - AK CVR Marks Convertor dot py, which reads the marks in the CVR and converts them to a more useable csv format, and...github.com/thecinyc/AK-CVR AK CVR Tabulator dot py, which tabulates the marks and sends them to a second csv file.
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Backstory to the code:

Normally, you could use the Universal RCV tabulator to run a CVR. However, back in 2022 we found that it wasn't properly computing AK's CVR, due to skip rules.

AK counted about 36K ballots yesterday. Here's the back-of-the-envelope math on what's likely to happen to BM 2 (RCV Repeal) and AK-AL (spoiler: I'm calling it for @NickforAlaska Begich - and I rarely call anything).

First, RCV repeal.

It's going to be very close.

1/? Yes (repeal RCV) is on track for a narrow 600 vote victory, but all it would take is for an additional 4K or so absentees to show up and break how they're currently breaking for it to fail. (Or if the late counts break differently than the early counts by HD by a little).

2/?

Alaska released its Cast Vote Record today, with the rank choices. I've run my RCV calculator on it.

As of right now - and there are a lot of votes still uncounted - @NickforAlaska Begich is up over @MaryPeltola by roughly 6 after the RCV algorithms are run. The full run by rounds (this is very long):

Honestly, I wasn't ready for the CVR to be released today. I didn't have time to update my script. It seems to be working though.

6PM NYC checkins:

Over 1.1 millioin NYC voters have voted today. Now, Manhattan lags and the Bronx is up - but all turnout rates are within about 2 points of each other. Overall including early vote, Staten Island leads and the Bronx lags. Brooklyn and Queens are about average.

Guam held its primaries today. Here is your 2024 Democratic Guam U.S. House Delegate Town Winner map.

@gingercruz leads Amanda @sheltonforguam 41-34%. Former delegate @GuamCongressman (Michael San Nicolas) came in last with 25%

Shelton strongest around, not incl Hagatna & S GU In case you're wondering, Guam has 72 precincts, but most are arranged alphabetically in the same town/precinct. A few towns have multiple voting sites, though. I don't know where/if there's a precinct map.

I combined these 72 into 19.

FYI: @pasquines_us @JMilesColeman @Drewsav

There's a new pollster in town called SoCal Research. They're currently included in the 538 average.

But who are they and how are they actually polling?

A 🧵

1/11 According to the methodology statement from SoCal Research's MI poll, that poll "was conducted online using the Pollfish panel", and was weighted by "race, education, age, gender, CD and vote history."

2/11

I'm not one for nostalgia: Election Twitter was never a perfect place free of silly drama and fights. But the events have the past day, where @SocalPopulist and "friends" defamed me by posting fake DMs I never sent, have moved the nonsense to a whole new level.

A thread:

1/? This wasn't the first time someone defamed me using fake Tweets I never sent. That was actually on May 1. 2023, when now-banned @FuckYouGute posted fake DMs suspiciously similar to the ones posted last night. Let me be clear: I never sent any of these DMs.
Naively, I replied.
2/?

Republican @KristyforNY Marmorato flipped an East Bronx NYC City Council seat tonight. The precinct winner map.

She cleaned up in traditionally Italian-American areas like Country Club and Throggs Neck, and kept margins down in the more Hispanic parts, too.

@PatrickRuffini Meanwhile, in Queens, incumbent Republican City Councilwoman @VickieforNYC Paladino easily won her rematch against @TonyAvella by about 20 points. Paladino won almost every precinct in the process.

@RyanGirdusky @GavinWax @aaronfoldenauer @Stef4NewYork

VA Beach is one of the few VA localities that reports election day checkins. A gif of VA Beach turnout as of about 9AM (EV + ED). Citywide, 16.8% of RVs have voted - about 34% of the 2021 vote.

It appears relative turnout is generally higher in Youngkin-voting areas - but this pattern definitely isn't uniform.
The static maps:

The U.S. Census Bureau finally released the 2020 Census ancestry and racial subgroup data on Thursday. More on this to follow in this thread.

My interactive map of the Top Ancestry or Racial or Hispanic subgroup in every US census tract is now live:

cinycmaps.com/index.php/ance… Like Boston, Greater Philadelphia's top AHR is largely Irish. And like in Boston, the Irishness fades the further you get from the city center. Pennsylvania (German) Dutch Country - and arguably the Midwest - starts in the PA exurbs.

Welcome to the weekend of never-ending town population change maps!

Census released its 2022 incorporated placepop estimates on Thursday, so here comes a cartographic cavalcade.

First, the nationwide 2020-22, 2020-21 and 2021-22 town pop change gif. S & W generally gained. Static nationwide maps, for those who don't want to play stop a gif:

Census released its 2022 incorporated place population estimates. I now have an interactive version of this map. The default map is 2020-22 PCT Change. Click the Menu button to toggle between PCT or Numerical change and the years you want to see.

cinycmaps.com/index.php/popu… FYI - @JMilesColeman @DrewSav @Thorongil16 @greggiroux @SeanTrende @PatrickRuffini @orcasaccount @Shane_maps @XNeonXO @xenocryptsite @HdxConservative @ChazNuttycombe

Census released its 7-1-2022 incorporated place population estimates today. Thus, my annual weekend of endless incorporated place population change maps is almost upon us!

For now, here's the static 2020-2022 city population change map. Purple = pop loss; green = gain. I'll eventually get around to turning this into an interactive, too.

Here's a preview of this weekend - 2020-22 pop growth in the NYC CSA. NYC itself and the inner suburbs have lost pop, while some outer suburbs have grown.

Estimate is for the city as a whole, not the boroughs.

Is this quick map anything?

Left: Jacksonville Mayoral GE turnout vs the primary. Citywide, 98.2% of primary voters voted as of 1:40PM. Purple precincts = < 98.2% of Primary; green precinct = > 98.2% of Primary.
Right: unofficial primary results from ED with 182/186 reporting 3:40PM Update: Citywide turnout is now at 107.4% of the first election. Not a ton changed on the vs citywide pct map (Green = > 107.4%' of primary votes; purple = < 107.4%). Beaches are still deep green.

At the request of @nas9860, @lrishConservNat and others, here's the estimated 2004 #Alaska U.S. Senate result by the 30 current county equivalents (boroughs & census areas). @lisamurkowski won 48-45 after a recount.

Again, this is an ESTIMATE using the traditional method to... ...allocate absentees to precincts. 2004 had a bunch of weird multi-HD early/?/ABS vote types, making this a bit more difficult than usual to decipher.

Here's the chart itself, if that's too small to decipher. Anchorage was more or less average for the state.

How long were Dewey's coattails in 1944?

Queens had 4 fairly competitive Congressional races in its 4 1944 CDs. As the precinct winner gif shows, Dewey far outran the congressional candidates in most of Queens (green) - except Far Rockaway and Kew Gardens. Static maps, for those who prefer - with a bonus map on the bottom right showing the number 1944 voters relative 2020 voters. The green and gold precincts have grown a lot since 1944; purple had fewer voters.

As requested by @MarionStefan - an estimate of the Dewey 1944 - Trump 2020 NYC swing (on the 1944 precinct map). Purple areas swung from Trump to Dewey (are more Dem today); green areas swung from Dewey to Trump (are more R today).

I spot a few patterns.... The deepest green areas are where Orthodox Jewish voters bloc voted for Trump today and/or where Jewish voters bloc voted FDR in 1944 - plus the 2020 cop & firefighter vote in Southern SI & the (non-Far) Rockaways.

Deepest purples in '44 White areas now Afr Am - like SE Queens.

Polls on the OK Recreational Marijuana referendum are now closed. Data and shp willing, I'll be livemapping the result here (if the Twitter card isn't greyed out, it's test data until results come in):

cinycmaps.com/index.php/2023… We have some early results on the map now. No is leading, roughly 60-40. It's all early vote, though.

AK @GovDunleavy won outright by getting a majority of first preferences. What would have happened had the RCV algorithms been run?

As the gif below shows, @BillWalkerAk would have been eliminated in the penultimate round, and Dunleavy would have beaten @Les_Gara_InAk by about 19 Static precinct winner maps of the hypothetical RCV rounds.

(It's pretty Walker gold outside of Anchorage until the final round - proving once again that land doesn't vote, especially in Alaska.

Gif of the overall precinct winner map for the various RCV (and non-RCV) rounds of the AK-AL November GE. @MaryPeltola lead wire-to-wire.

1st map is of the results before any second prefs were allocated; 2nd - 2nd prefs allocated; 3rd - WI eliminated; 4th - bye bye Bye.
#AKpol I've also updated the spreadsheets for the AK-AL race and hypos. This fixes a few minor precinct results errors. They're here:

Actual (Begich eliminated):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Palin eliminated hypo:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Pelotla eliminated hypo:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…