Maps and politics and stuff. Usually, it's just maps. @RRHElections moderator. Disclosure: Conservative Republican. Maps: https://t.co/zKDAwsoOzw.
Jan 14 • 4 tweets • 7 min read
AK @GovDunleavy won outright by getting a majority of first preferences. What would have happened had the RCV algorithms been run?
As the gif below shows, @BillWalkerAk would have been eliminated in the penultimate round, and Dunleavy would have beaten @Les_Gara_InAk by about 19
Static precinct winner maps of the hypothetical RCV rounds.
(It's pretty Walker gold outside of Anchorage until the final round - proving once again that land doesn't vote, especially in Alaska.
Jan 9 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
Gif of the overall precinct winner map for the various RCV (and non-RCV) rounds of the AK-AL November GE. @MaryPeltola lead wire-to-wire.
1st map is of the results before any second prefs were allocated; 2nd - 2nd prefs allocated; 3rd - WI eliminated; 4th - bye bye Bye. #AKpol
I've also updated the spreadsheets for the AK-AL race and hypos. This fixes a few minor precinct results errors. They're here:
I've finally preliminarily parsed the AK US House and Senate CVRs. Things add up, but still may be off at the edges.
Unlike in the special, had Palin been eliminated, Begich would have lost 55.4-44.6%. This is slightly worse than Palin's 55-45% actual performance.
Beigich would have won a head-to-head against Palin 60.6-39.4%.
Dec 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Map of the NYC @leezeldin - 2020 Trump "swing" on the 2022 precinct map. The redder the precinct, the better Zeldin did vs Trump '20.
The reddest areas were in NE Queens, S Brooklyn and the whitest parts of Bronx.
Overall, Zeldin improved on Trump's 2-party PCT by 7.2 points.
Same map, this time using the 7.2 point citywide swing as the dividing line between red and blue, to put things into sharper perspective.
Dec 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NYC's results are now official. @LeeZeldin received 30.2% of the citywide vote. Here is the precinct winner map:
Corporate wants you to spot the differences from the election night results map by using this gif:
(No, the Assembly district overlays, graying out Long Island and making NJ the same piss yellow color as their license plates doesn't count.)
Nov 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My first very rough cut projection of where things will probably land in Alaska after the uncounted absentee, early and questioned votes are counted. This was a very simple calculation assuming the abs and early votes broke as prior ones did or...
...in the HDs where no absentees have been counted, as the overall vote did. I assumed questioned will vote as overall vote, too, for lack of data thus far (0 have been counted.
The Virginia trilogy is finally precinct mapped. The state did NOT allocate absentees to precincts yet, so things are a little bit redder than they actually are, since it only picks up the election day vote.
Kiggins beat Luria in VA-2 by about 4 points.
In VA-7, Spanberger (D) beat Vega (R) by about 4 points.
Nov 7, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Final cumulative NYS early vote stats by region:
-1,178,674 total Early Vote checkins, ~47% of 2020
-Mid-Hudson, LI are closest to 2020 at over 64%
-NYC signifciantly lags at 38.66%
-Every other region is about at the statewide average
Day 9 chart:
-Sunday was a very good day, at 72.5% of 2020.
-Long Island blew past its 2020 D9 totals; Mid-Hudson & Northern suburbs were close
-Every other region below average at or around 60%.
Nov 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Final Cumulative NYC early vote stats:
-432,634 total EV check-ins
-Brooklyn now has more EV check-ins than Manhattan
-NYC ends up at 38.66% of 2020's EV
-Manhattan still up, Bronx still lags, all other boroughs about average
Today's stats (Day 9 - the final day):
-Manhattan came closest to 2020; Bronx lags; BK about average; SI & Queens below average
Nov 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
148,898 NYS voters voted early yesterday (excluding Sullivan & Ontario counties). It was a good day statewide vs 2020, especially on LI, the NYC Northern suburbs and Mid-Hudson Valley.
NYC most lagged its 2020 performance, but had relatively strong turnout, compared to prev days
As the cumulative chart shows, over 972K NYers have voted early, 43.5% of 2020 levels. It's still relatively most down in NYC and closest to 2020 in the Mid-Hudson Valley and Long Island. The rest of the state is pretty average.
Excludes Ontario C Days 7 & 8 and Sullivan C Day 8
Nov 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday's statewide early vote statistics. Like with NYC, I'm going to start with the Day 7 daily chart. Almost 117,000 voters voted yesterday (Ontario County not included). NYC had an abysmal day, voting at 27% of '20, worst in NY. Mid-Hudson, LI were near 50% of '20.
Through Day 7, Mid-Hudson still leads vs their 2020 numbers, followed by Long Island. The other regions are pretty much near the statewide 41.84% of 2020 average. In particular, the Northern Suburbs (Westchester/Putnan/Rockland) have met gravity.
Nov 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Day 7 of NYC's early voting is in the books. All I can say is yikes! I'm going to start with the Day 7 dily chart this time:
36,920 people voted early today - less than 27% of 2020. Even Manhattan's totals were relatively low. Not a lot of early bird voters (polls opened at 7AM)
Overall, 283,753 NYC voters have voted early - 33.79% of their 2020 tally through Day 7.
Nov 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Day 6 of NYS Early Voting was more of the same. NYC still significantly lags the rest of the state vs their 2020 turnout in the cumulative stats. Mid-Hudson and Long Island continue to significantly outpace, Most other regions' EV turnout vs 2020 is comparable to the state.
As a percentage of registered voters, 3 regions are now over 6% - Mid-Hudson, NYC Northern Suburbs & Western NY. LI & the Capital Region are closing in on 6%. North Country still lags most. NYC is still below statewide on this metric, too.
Nov 3, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Almost 600,000 people have voted early in NYS as of yesterday (excluding Day 5 in tiny Hamilton and Wayne Counties). NYC continues to lag all other regions compared to 2020 turnout. The Mid-Hudson Valley is best in this metric, followed by Long Island.
That's ~4.54% of registered voters. The North Country, Southern Tier, Central/Leatherstocking & NYC lag most in the RV metric. Mid-Hudson, Northern Suburbs, Western NY, Capital Region & LI are above the statewide average.
Nov 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
212,746 voters have now voted early in NYC. The NYC 2022 cumulative EV rate vs 2020 as of Day 5 is now down to 35.77%.
The Bronx is still not pulling its own weight, suggesting minority voters aren't early voting this cycle.
Here are today's daily numbers. Almost 41,000 voters voted today, compared to ~137,000 in 2020. That's just below 30% of 2020 turnout. Again, the Bronx really lagged today.
Nov 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In case you missed it from last night, I have a map of the Israeli national elections on my website:
Leaving you with one last look of what's in and what's out. It looks like the light gray towns in the north have not reported, and there still may be some vote left to count in the south, too.
You can access this map by hitting Menu-->Swing-->PCT of 24th.
Nov 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
44,021 NYC voters voted early today. NYC's overall pace vs 2020 continues to decline, and is below 38% of 2020. Here's the cumulative comparison chart:
The chart showing today's votes vs. Day 4 2020 & 2021:
Nov 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Polls are now closed in Israel. My 25th Knesset election results locality live map is live. No data yet. (The Twitter card shows test data from earlier this afternoon & should be ignored).
Let's hope the data is willing tonight!
If you clicked on the map earlier today, you should CTRL-R hard refresh. I've updated the code to show 13 parties in the top chart instead of just 5, and a few other things.
There's no need to refresh otherwise. Data should auto-refresh every 3 minutes - as long as I can keep up