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Jan 9 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
I've written extensively on the habits and lessons of the world's greatest traders/investors:

• Michael Marcus
• Peter Cundill
• Ed Thorp
• George Soros
• Michael Burry
• Allan Mecham
• Li Lu
• Bruce Kovner
• Bill Miller

Here's an entire collection of those threads 👇
1/ Michael Marcus

Elevator Pitch: Turned $30K into $80M after blowing up a few accounts before finding his edge.

2/ Peter Cundill

Elevator Pitch: Arguably Canada's greatest value investor. Compounded capital at 15%/year for 30 years by investing globally in deep value securities.

3/ Ed Thorp

Elevator Pitch: Godfather of quant investing, created a card-counting system, and compounded capital at 19% annually for 30 years. He's the man for all markets.

4/ Allan Mecham

Elevator Pitch: College drop-out turned value investor that generated a 33% CAGR in his first 12 years as a fund manager. Worked above a taco shop.

5/ Li Lu

Elevator Pitch: One of the only people Charlie Munger trusts with his capital (outside Buffett). Lu has generated a ~30% CAGR since inception investing in global value stocks.

6/ Michael Burry

Elevator Pitch: Deep value investor who created the "Big Short." Invests in roadkill/"ick" stocks and makes a ton of money doing it.

7/ George Soros

Elevator Pitch: Broke the Bank of England. Generated a 32% CAGR for 30 years. Turned $1K of investor's money into $4M by 2000. Makes tons of money when his back hurts.

8/ Bruce Kovner

Elevator Pitch: Former academic turned billionaire trader. Former Market Wizards call him "the best trader I ever knew." Averaged a ~90% CAGR during his 10 years at Commodities Corp.

9/ Bill Miller

Elevator Pitch: Beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years. Returned 119% in 2019. Hates investing "labels" and is one of the most independent thinking value investors in the game.

10/ Recap:

I hope you enjoyed this "meta" thread of all the lessons and threads I've posted on the world's greatest investors.

Stay tuned for more threads like this by liking, RT'ing, and following!

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More from @marketplunger1

Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Jan 10
Not all growth is created equal.

Growth ONLY adds value if it increases the amount of FCF a company generates.

A simple way to find that out is by using Cash Flow Variance Analysis.

It focuses on the CORE DRIVERS of profitable growth.

A thread explaining how to use it ... 🧵 Image
1/ What is Cash Flow Variance Analysis (CFVA)?

CFVA focuses on the core drivers of profitable growth:

- Top-line revenue growth

- Changes in operating margins

It shows which lever a company uses to generate/lose money as it grows.

Which allows for better biz analysis ...
2/ What Are Our Key Metrics

There are two metrics we need to find:

• Operating Cushion %: (GM % - SG&A %)

• Working Capital %: (A/R %, Inventory %, A/P %)

From there, we subtract Working Capital % from Operating Cushion to get Core Operating Growth Profile. Image
Read 12 tweets
Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Jan 5
As investors, we assume that we'll spot the tell-tale signs of an impending revenue growth slow-down.

That's not true.

The fact is that most companies that stall NEVER restart growth.

Here's a thread on "Stall Points" & how to spot them before they destroy your capital ... 🧵 Image
1/ Intuitively it makes sense for us to think we could spot stalling growth companies.

We'd look for:

- Revenue growth deceleration
- Gross margin compression
- Slower business activity

But most times these are the LAST things you'll see after a biz has stalled out. Image
2/ The reason why predicting stall points is so difficult is because some co's do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what we think they should do.

Here's what I mean: Some businesses about to hit a stall point actually GROW revenues & margins!

Let's back this up with some data.
Read 11 tweets
Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Jan 1
Industry Primers are a great way to learn about a new corner of the market and expand your circle of competence.

And what better time than now to start learning something new?

Here's a thread of each S&P Global Sector Series with links to the full PDFs.

Get to learning ... 🧵
1/ Healthcare

The Health Care sector comprises companies primarily engaged in Health Care Equipment & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, and Life Sciences.

Link: spglobal.com/spdji/en/docum…
2/ Information Technology

Companies primarily engaged in Software & Services, Technology Hardware & Equipment, and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment are classified into industry groups that make up the Information Technology sector.

Link: spglobal.com/spdji/en/docum…
Read 11 tweets
Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Dec 30, 2022
George Soros needs no introduction.

He broke the Bank of England.

He generated a 32% CAGR for 30+ years.

He taught Stanley Druckenmiller the trading ropes.

$1,000 invested w/ Soros would have been worth $4M+ by 2000.

Here are five trading lessons from The Palindrome ... 🧵 Image
Lesson 1: Learn To Profit From Fallibility

I love how Soros explains his trading philosophy:

"My approach works not by making valid predictions, but by allowing me to correct false ones."

It's one of the reasons Soros could make tons of money with a 30% win rate.

Be robust. Image
Lesson 2: Everything is Reflexive

You hear investors say "Price drives narrative." That's Soros's Reflexivity Theory.

What we (I.e., the market) believe about a stock directly affects its outcome.

High stock prices means cheaper financing, better employees, lower opex via SBC. Image
Read 8 tweets
Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Dec 29, 2022
The Ten Commandments for Business Failure is one of the best business books I've read.

It should be the last thing you read this year, and the first thing you read next year.

It's a perfect example of "Invert, Always Invert."

Here are Ten Ways To Destroy A Business ... 🧵
1/ Quit Taking Risks

Successful companies die because they get comfortable.

And nobody takes risks when they're comfortable.

Einstein requested a large trash can in his office. Why?

"For all the mistakes I'll make."

Never lose the need for a large trash can for mistakes.
2/ Be Inflexible

Henry Ford is one of America's most prominent business titans.

And even he fell victim to Inflexibility.

"They can have the Model T in any color, as long as it's black."

Ford's Inflexibility allowed Dodge & Chevy to take market share & erode Ford's sales.
Read 13 tweets
Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Dec 22, 2022
Peter Cundill is one of the most consistent value investors ever.

His Value Fund generated a 15% CAGR over 33 years. Turning $100 into $10,000.

He followed in Ben Graham's footsteps but carved his own path.

Here are six of Cundill's most important investing lessons ... 🧵
Lesson 1: Be A Global Investor

Cundill was Canadian but invested globally.

He believed, like Peter Lynch, that the won who turns over the most rocks will win the game.

The wider you cast your net, the greater the odds of finding extreme value.

That is very true today.
Lesson 2: Buy Hidden Asset Plays

Cundill demanded a strong balance sheet with high asset values.

He also loved hidden assets.

For example, he bought Tiffany's in '74 because it held its diamonds and real estate at historical cost.

Which vastly understated its current value.
Read 9 tweets

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