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Jan 10 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
In #JPM2023 news, $GH Guardant Health also presented on Monday, and here are some highlights of their presentation, which is available on their website. They value the cancer screening market at $100B, which is the first time I see the estimate breaking the three-digit-B mark.
One of their slides is entirely focussed on convincing the remaining doubters that power of epigenomics can be unlocked with Liquid Biopsy assays. I saw more people mentioning this in their social media as of late, but it's great to see such detail in $GH Guardant Health slides.
In this slide they show how the technology that Guardant calls 'Smart Liquid Biopsy' will also be applied to MRD apart from their screening assays.
Details on ECLIPSE: 20,000-patient registrational screening study for Colorectal cancer (including adenomas).
ECLIPSE overall sensitivity of 83% with a 90% Specificity, and advanced adenoma sensitivity at 13%.
Emphasizing the numbers of unscreened individuals, and the fact that blood-based screening has 90% adherence compared to $EXAS Exact Sciences Cologuard (poo in a bucket) 65% adherence, and 42% for colonoscopy.
Combining ECLIPSE performance with the adherence numbers, they come up with the "Effective Sensitivity" numbers so they can show better numbers than $EXAS Cologuard. I haven't seen the numbers combined in this way in the past, but maybe someone can assure me that this is common.
The work continues, and Lung cancer is the next in line for the screening assays, with a Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) assay in development. An MCED assay is what @GrailBio (currently part of $ILMN Illumina) is offering with Galleri, although with little reimbursement RN.
Their MCED projections show screening at 3-year intervals, which is longer than I would have thought is expected for CRC or Lung once we show they are useful. MCED planned for annual screening interval.
They aim at $5B from Shield in 2032, with 10M annual test potential in CRC alone.
Some milestones. Including "Upgrade to Smart Liquid Biopsy" platform. Are there any more details of what it means in technology terms? Epigenomic profiling? NGS details?
More on Liquid Biopsy for Cancer Screening at bit.ly/liqbiopcs

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More from @AlbertVilella

Albert Vilella Profile picture
Jan 10
In #JPM2023 news, $ILMN Illumina also presented on Monday 9th January 2023. They have a warning note on the @GrailBio acquisition on slide 1, who knows how this saga is going to end.
Illumina sees an addressable market of $120B by 2027, of which they are only at 7% penetration. If they think GrailBio's Galleri assays can address the cancer screening market, then Guardant's estimate alone for it is $100B already. Big big numbers, lots of growth opportunities.
Their install-base has reached 23,000 instruments, although many of these will be underutilised or awaiting an upgrade. They now see an almost 50/50% split between RUO and Clinical markets.
Read 12 tweets
Albert Vilella Profile picture
Dec 11, 2022
Some initial results from the #CASP15 competition and we see that #Alphafold2 has become a fertile ground for experimentation by several research groups around the world. Facebook's ESM protein language models (pLMs) are the top non-MSA based methods.
Another slide showing some of the experimentation taking place: increase the number of models, recycles, get more diversity using dropout (how would that work?), subsample MSAs.
A slide showing the amount of #GPU hours used for computing the structures in the #CASP15 dataset.
Read 6 tweets
Albert Vilella Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
A few notes on the Oxford Nanopore Tech update, not complete by any means, the link to the 1 hour presentation is below.
Sample recovery: take your DNA back after a sequencing run, re-run it on another flowcell
New MinION Mk1D: better temperature control, can interface with Apple's iPad Pro via a dock
Read 20 tweets
Albert Vilella Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
In #NextGenerationSequencing news, we look at the clinical uptake of different NGS technologies after the recent updates announced in the last few months:
NGS has been dominated by Illumina with their SBS short-reads technology, with reads of up to 2x150 base pairs available in most configurations, although 2x300 are also possible at a higher cost per Gb.
If we could roll back time in the last 15-20 years of NGS history, we would ideally have had a long-reads technology, or better yet, a length agnostic technology, be the dominant player, as most applications, both in Life Sciences Research and Clinical, would have benefited
Read 23 tweets
Albert Vilella Profile picture
Oct 19, 2022
In Next-Generation sequencing news, we have been digesting the Chemistry X and $200/genome announcement by $ILMN Illumina for a few weeks now, and next in line are $PACB PacBio, MGI Tech and $ONT.L Oxford @nanopore to give updates between now and the year end.
The $200/genome announcement by Illumina puts pressure on the other short-read high CAPEX instrument companies, which at the moment would be MGI Tech and Ultima Genomics. Both will have to deliver on their promises of a $100/genome, which they both have made recently.
In terms of the long-read market, the $200/genome is a still a short-read play, and thus should not put pressure on PacBio and Oxford Nanopore in that regard. Illumina had to concede that long reads are important, and their Infinity technology strategy is a demonstration of the
Read 20 tweets
Albert Vilella Profile picture
Oct 17, 2022
Some back of the envelope calculations on the recent announcements by $ILMN Illumina make me think there may have been two lines of pricing being considered when launching the NovaSeq X Plus instrument line. The "conservative pricing" could have placed the 25B flowcell at $3/Gb. Image
Then placing the 10B flowcell somewhere in between the $3/Gb and the $6/Gb on the NovaSeq 6000 instrument, maybe at $4.5/Gb.
This would probably have matched MGI Tech's unofficial pricing of $6/Gb on the mid-throughput sequencer, where Element Bio @ElemBio is also priced.
And their DNBSEQ T7 equivalent to the NovaSeq 6000 at $4.5/Gb, maybe better? Their DNBSEQ T10x4 could already be at $1/Gb, but it's a larger installation and commitment than the NovaSeq X Plus 25B flowcell (H2 2023), and pricing isn't clear on it yet.
Read 5 tweets

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