Thread by @MattooShashank

America began its rise as a great power in the 1880s

India's ascent to great power status will play out in the 2020s

3 revolutions allowed 🇺🇸 to transform into a global pwr

Are those revolutions playing out in 🇮🇳?

🧵on parallel trends & the one thing holding 🇮🇳 back 👇(1/21)

(2/21)
🇺🇸's rise took place after the 1880s, also known as the "Gilded Age"

The Gilded Age was characterised by
- an exploding domestic economy
- social problems like inequality
- growing military pwr
- weak presidents
- rising expectations & disappointing performance

(3/21)
Prior to this, 🇺🇸's focus had been almost totally domestic

@DrMichaelJGreen argues 3 revolutions changed everything:

- Economic Revolution
- Government & Military Revolution
- Ideological Revolution

Each of these transformed 🇺🇸 & set it on the path to great power status

(4/21)

Revolution 1: Economics

🇺🇸's economy grew at breakneck speed during the Gilded Age

New infrastructure like railroads allowed heavy industry to take off

- Real wage growth of 60%
- Millions pulled out of poverty
- Massive innovation (Edison, Westinghouse etc)

(5/21)

Despite massive econ inequality, poverty & abuses of labour rights, 🇺🇸's econ growth was real & Americans grew richer

By start of 20th century, 🇺🇸 led world in industrial production

This meant 🇺🇸 had a crucial tool it had lacked before: nat'l wealth

(6/21)
Revolution 2: Government & Military

In 1881, Chile threatened to sink 🇺🇸's Pacific naval squadron

Chile may have succeeded since the US Navy was in terrible shape w. little investment

20 yrs later, Teddy Roosevelt could send the Great White Fleet to project 🇺🇸 pwr

Why?

(7/21)

🇺🇸 began to acquire state & military power by

- Reforming the corrupt civil service
- Changes to the tax code that allowed increased revenues
- Using natl. wealth to transform 🇺🇸's wooden navy into a modern battle fleet
- Established institutions Naval War College

(8/21)

Revolution 3: Ideology

Ideology transformed 🇺🇸's national wealth and govt reforms into great power status

Thinkers like Frederick Jackson Turner & Brooks Adams transformed 🇺🇸's inward looking natl ideology

(9/21)
Post 1860s civil war, 🇺🇸's focus was on healing the ctry

By the Gilded Age, that goal was achieved & econ growth increased

However, social unrest & repeated econ recession caused tensions domestically

Turner, Adams & others believed only foreign expansion could save 🇺🇸

(10/21)

They convinced Americans that

- 🇺🇸 had to secure new overseas markets
- 🇺🇸 had a moral duty abroad due to racial & religious superiority
- 🇺🇸 people were "the most capable of bringing civilization, commerce, and peaceful interdependence to the world."

(11/21)

🇺🇸 ideology allowed politicians like Cleveland & Roosevelt to:

-Begin transformation from 🇺🇸's inward to global vision
-Gain public support for funding expensive programs like modernization of US Navy
-Rally citizens behind wars against foreign pwrs (Spain)

(12/21)

🇮🇳's post-1991 story has interesting parallels to 🇺🇸's Gilded Age

Similarity 1: The social setting

-Weak national governments (until 2014, no single party won a majority)
-Rapid economic growth w. inequality
-Increased military power (2022 defence budget is 10x 1991)

(13/21)

-Widespread corruption & disappointing governance performance
-Power in hands of massive business houses (🇺🇸 had Standard Oil, 🇮🇳 has Reliance & Adani)

For more on how we're living in a Gilded Age with 🇮🇳 characteristics, check out @jamescrabtree's "Billionaire Raj" 👇

(14/21)
Similarity 2: Economic Revolution

Like 🇺🇸, 🇮🇳 has seen impressive econ. growth since '91:
- Nominal GDP 2022 📈 12 times
- Per capita income📈6 fold
- Major poverty relief

Like 1880s 🇺🇸, massive poverty & inequality remain

However, this wealth has allowed📈in natl. pwr

(15/21)
Similarity 3: Govt. & Military Revolution

🇮🇳 has made reforms to📈institutional pwr:

- Econ. reforms like GST📈state ability to collect revenue & fund natl. development

- Military reforms like Chief of Defence Staff (institutional) & major inductions (aircraft carrier)

(16/21)

But there's a key difference: Ideology

🇺🇸's ideology in 1880s
-📈global US presence was solution to domestic crises
- foreign markets will absorb 🇺🇸's econ. potential
- 🇺🇸 has moral duty to "uplift" & "christianize" the world

🇮🇳 doesn't have a comparable ideology

(17/21)

Disclaimer: 🇺🇸 ideology was heavily tinged with cultural, racial & moral superiority towards other groups

Not suggesting for a moment that 🇮🇳 should emulate this

My limited point is that 🇺🇸's ideology resonated w. people & made moral & practical case for 📈 global role

(18/21)

Closest thing 🇮🇳 has to an outward facing nat'l ideology: idea of 🇮🇳 as "Vishwaguru"

What this is
-Promotes 🇮🇳's econ strength & vibrant democracy as example to world

But Vishwaguru has key weaknesses as a national ideology that promotes 🇮🇳's rise as a great power

(19/21)

Vishwaguru's current weakness

- Doesn't make popular moral case for incrsd. 🇮🇳 global role (🇺🇸 wanted to spread democracy)
- Doesn't make strong practical case for 🇮🇳's role (🇺🇸 sought external markets)
- Little mass appeal as foreign affairs is seen as elite playground

(19/21)

-Isn't used to mobilise citizens for great causes

Result:
-Despite📈demands, 🇮🇳's diplomatic budget is small
-Organisations like ICCR promoting 🇮🇳 values underfunded
-Public largely focused on internal challenges w/o a sense of what 🇮🇳 is trying to achieve in world

(20/21)

What needs to change:

- Make practical case to Indians for incr. global role (🇮🇳 needs foreign markets, must stop 🇨🇳)
- Make a coherent moral case (world needs 🇮🇳 sober diplomatic style, democratic values)
- Bring foreign affairs to the people (🇮🇳 using G20 for this)

(21/21)

Essentially, Vishwaguru or any ideology needs more details, articulate practical and moral concerns better & expand beyond a slogan used by politicians to become a concept that all of 🇮🇳 identifies with

🇮🇳 can then fuse wealth, military pwr & ideology to cement rise

Disclaimer:

I'm not trying to make exact comparisons since we're talking about vastly different ctries rising in entirely different int'l environments.

That said, the goal is to point to broad trends & curious similarities between the rise of 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇳