Thread by @johnmyers

Yes, I’ve been reading today’s #CABudget, even though that assignment is in the rear view mirror for me. Once a budget nerd, always a budget nerd.

Sure, the proposals contained in the document are newsy. But I’m mostly struck my what isn’t always explained to avg Californians…

And for me, tops on that list is the fact that the state is projected to still take in more tax $ in the coming fiscal year than the current year. That sure won’t strike some folks as “deficit.”

Focus on “revenues and transfers” below…

The story, of course, is that the growth in those total revenues has slowed beyond earlier expectations. And yes, a key component — personal income tax revenues — are looking worrisome.

But it’s a very different budget worry than those of the Great Recession.

This is always a favorite January budget chart of mine, as it captures changes in expectations from less than six months ago. (Data really is late 2022.) By looking at the 3-year window, you see how much the spring/summer expectations — the current law — now seems wrong.

Ok, ok, just one more. Here you can see the projected deficit concerns are a function of spending growth that was going to outpace revenue growth. And if history is any guide, it’s a core component of the “spending problem vs. revenue problem” political fights.

One final tweet: a reminder of times gone by. These are tweets I posted after then-Gov. Schwarzenegger suggested a new offshore drilling effort with state payments that would cover CA parks spending. (Um, it never happened.) Just a reminder of how much things have changed. -30-