THREAD on Soledar🧵1-A lot is being made about the situation in Soledar. What is clear from BOTH sides (even Wagner chief Prigozhin is praising Ukraine's performance) is that costs are high on both sides and non-trivial progress has been made by Russia
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1612763293281619969
2-Time for a some history: Pyrrhus of Epirus was a Epirot Greek general called in by Greek southern-Italian city-state Tarentum. In grueling, costly fighting, he kept beating Rome but lost so many troops by the time he got to 2-days-away from Rome's gates, he had to turn back... 
3-This is where we get the term "Pyrrhic victory," a victory so costly you cannot really win in the aftermath. To the degree that Russia is gaining in Soledaor, it's Pyrrhic advances. The casualties have clearly been horrendous, but even worse than for Pyrrhus. Why worse?
4-Pyrrus was close to the city of Rome, so close that if he had more forces & could've kept going, history might've turned out FAR differently. In Ukraine, main fighting in Donbas has been near Bakhmut, a small, strategically unimportant Town Putin's been obsessed with taking
5-North of Bakhmut is Soledar. It's not not good for Ukraine if Soledar falls, but it hardly means Bakhmut will fall as a result: we're talking a small town north of a small city. Russia's going all out for not very much, this ain't Kyiv & Ukraine's not in same danger Rome was
6-Whereas Rome had exhausted much of its manpower & had its capital under threat, Ukraine can easily move new, freshly equipped troops with new Western equipment. Russia's decimated military here on Wagner's mercenaries, generally better than official new mobilized Russian troops
7-But even Wagner has suffered catastrophic casualties, over 14,100 out of a 50,000 force (and with significant additions since these figures were given), about 30% casualties. This was part force was part of a big recruitment effort, as well. Disastrous
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1612841550710714369
8-What that all means is Russia
a-doesn't have lots of new high-quality forces coming in
b-Will have a force that's exhausted/depleted
c-Won't be able to much more even if it does take Soledar (let along threaten Bakhmut)
d-Is ripe to be counterattacked realcontextnews.com/russian-army-c…
a-doesn't have lots of new high-quality forces coming in
b-Will have a force that's exhausted/depleted
c-Won't be able to much more even if it does take Soledar (let along threaten Bakhmut)
d-Is ripe to be counterattacked realcontextnews.com/russian-army-c…
9-Yet Ukraine's been getting lots of new equipment from West & with Russia focusing so much on Bakmut/Soledar, Ukraine has a lot of freedom to reinforce from other sectors. With its Pyrrhic gains in Soledar, Russia not likely to be able to hold Soledar or prevent counterattack
10-A strong counterattack into these Russian forces would be devastating, but might be a better move for Ukraine to smash through a nearby sector that's been relatively quiet & threaten Russian positions near Bakmhut/Soledar from side/rear. Either way, Russia very vulnerable
11-I've recently noted the war has evolved to having 2 alternating phases, one where Ukraine is on the march bigtime, other where Russia engaging in mostly fruitless offenses, opening it up to aforementioned phase; we're def in the latter here w/ Soledar realcontextnews.com/russia-ukraine…
12-If I was Ukraine, I might even bait Russia into thinking Bakhmut could fall, maybe even feint losing in there, to draw Russian forces into exposing themselves even more before a counterattack. This happened before Severodonetsk, to devastating effect
https://twitter.com/OracleofWallSt/status/1533158245036064768
13-The point is, Russia is is NOT position for some kind of rapid breakthrough in Bakhmut even if Soledar falls. They are destroying portions of its army for relatively unimportant real estate & will leave themselves vulnerable not just there, but elsewhere. Russia is in trouble
14-Which makes deployment to Belarus insane: Kyiv well-defended & even with its best troops & way more of them in Feb/March, Russia failed. But now its putting 3rd-rate troops there that could help where Russia is now vulnerable. Feint or not, i's a waste theguardian.com/world/2023/jan…
15-SO, Russia sucks & is losing & will lose. Brave sacrifices being made in Soledar but Ukraine not in any danger of some major Russian breakthrough while Russia IS in danger of Ukrainian breakthrough. If it's this costly for Russia to gain in Soldar, Russia's can't do much more
16-To conclude, remember Pyrrhus: he was fighting near Rome. Soledar ain't even Bakhmut, let alone Rome or Kyiv; this is Russia inching fwd not much farther than it was before Feb. Shows Russia has v little offensive capability. Each small costly gain opens it to more loss later
17-Epilogue: the fate of King Pyrrhus as a warning to Putin... isn't history effin' GREAT?? (13 should start: "The point is, Russia is NOT in a position...") Slava Ukraini!
18-Partial correction to 6-Rome had not exhausted as much of its manpower as I had thought; fighting at home, its territory/population/allies larger than Tarentum, it was able to call on even more reserves of manpower, and apparently quickly in the eyes of Pyrrhus (via Plutarch)
19-Still, Roman losses after the battles of 280 were severe, & initial point, that if Pyrrhus had more forces, Rome might have been defeated before it could muster a new army, still stands (it would still have taken some time and a mere number of days wouldn't have been enough)
20-HERE IT IS, FOLKS! My full, detailed article inspired by this thread on why Soledar/Bakhmut are Pyrrhic for Russia, hope you will all check it out and find the added detail worthwhile (including some bonus stuff on Pyrrhus himself!) realcontextnews.com/russias-pyrrhi…
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