1-Bibi Netanyahu is crazier than I even thought, he might just invade Lebanon (cuz that worked out so well the last two times). The esteemed ex-CIA Robert Baer seems to think this is like, and perhaps will include Beirut as i the 1980s (on @CNN), not just the south like in 2006 2-Jury is still out on these device bombs in Lebanon, the upswing is obvious it's still not clear on the level of civilian casualties and the longer-term consequences. If this makes Israel feel confident in an invasion & then IDF gets bogged in in Lebanon, not a clear "win" later

THREAD🧵1- We have a lot to talk about in Russia's Kursk Oblast & beyond. My latest piece examines how & why this operation is likely to transform the war & put Russia on the defensive, causing the collapse of major parts of Russia's front line in Ukraine realcontextnews.com/kursk-belgorod… 2-As I note in the piece, Ukraine has smashed the right flank of the overall Russian line & Russia has no defense in depth. Ukraine is threatening Russian positions from the rear & Belgorod & much of the Russian line in the north of Ukraine can be affected & Russia backpedaling

🧵1-The thread below discusses how Biden is nailing a prudent balance in helping to guide the pace and intensity of escalation going on regionally in the Middle East. This thread will show how Biden also nailing managing Israel dynamic as best as possible in a horrific situation

https://twitter.com/bfry1981/status/1751830457606373793

2-Any deaths tragic but keeping this much of lid on regional dynamic for this long product of number of skilled hands & reading room quite well. Nearly 4 months of hostilities w/ our troops exposed throughout region & it took this long for any KIA. Could've easily been far worse

1-To those military "experts" & some legit experts who say Biden shoulda attacked far more targets w/ far more force earlier in Syria/Iraq/Yemen/Iran, PACE of escalation matters. If we were far more aggressive earlier, they woulda escalated earlier, killed U.S. troops earlier 2-Idea is to keep escalation SLOWER to give Israel more time to finish (hopefully SOON) its operations so that violence doesn't spiral out of control. This current point coulda happened earlier w/ more aggressive U.S. actions & make us aggressor, here Iran et al. clear aggressor

1-Sad day for Israel, but am shocked so many Israelis surprised it came to this. Some outside observers have been warning for years this is the direction Israel was being pushed by Bibi et al. for YEARS & they didn't hide intentions. As how we got into this mess, it ain't pretty 2-Allies of Netanyahu began work formally in May 2017 on what would become a deeply controversial new Basic Law, a Nation State Law that would essentially pave way for apartheid by legally enshrining non-Jews' 2nd-class status, but roots go back to 2011 theguardian.com/world/2017/may…

KEY TAKEAWAYS OF WAGERN REBELLION:
1-I've given up trying to guess what's in Prigozhin's head or what his relationship w/ Putin is; you should too
2-This killed remaining effectiveness of Putin's propaganda; nearly every Russia now knows war going bad
3-Putin is greatly weakened 4-Anyone else thinking of pulling off revolt is heartened as Russia seems fairly defenseless from attack; this will not be the last rebel attack
5-Could take less than a day for future Russian rebels to threaten Moscow, which wouldn't have enough troops if rebel army large enough

Folks, IT is happening. Counteroffensive THREAD🧵 1- underway now in Bakhmut. Ukraine making gains north & south of city eve while Wagner keeps attacking in middle. Russia setting itself up for disaster because it needs to focus on defense, as Ukraine could encircle Bakhmut. Why? 2-1 reason is new Western IFVs mean LOTS of new mobility for Ukraine. Also, 1 reason Russian offensive struggled is HIMARS has meant it can't have logistics bases close to front line. UK's Storm Shadow missiles mean where Russia THOUGHT was safe ain't

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657013169871544322

1-Ukraine ALREADY has Storm Shadow. Certainly not surprise to U.S. but coordinated ahead of time. Announced AFTER delivery so Russia wouldn't be looking for 'em. Whole time people screaming ATACMS LOOKED like Ukraine didn't have missiles in this range, Russia prepared accordingly

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1656624509443604480

2-So armchair generals loving to thump their chests might CHILL & remember:
1-Lots in motion that isn't announced on Twitter ahead
2-Coalition looking to surprise Russia not telegraph every move
3-What's said/announced isn't real time & is never full picture
4-Psyops/infowar real

Two train wrecks at once Ten minutes into the Trump townhall and this is a disgrace

Israel generally needs to be more careful. But trying to understand the rules: If Islamic Jihad, which is not governing like Hamas but is mainly just a terrorist group, has 3 leaders that are legit targets, are they off limits if with their families, which are then human shields?

https://twitter.com/alhaq_org/status/1656017939869335558

Misleading to start w/ "13 Palestinians killed" (Al-Haq didn't, others are), makes it sound like Israeli just killed 13 rando civilians minding their own biz. Mostly 3 PIJ commanders & their families. Israel misleads too, calling Palestinians defending their homes "terrorists"

"WHAT RUSSIA DEFENSE DOING?"
Not much that can stop Ukraine.
1-My THREAD🧵on Ukraine's coming counteroffensive, & especially why Ukraine's crossing of the Dnipro River is such a crucial and overlooked development that affects the context of the entire Ukrainian battlespace 2-Be wary of anyone telling you they know where/when Ukraine's main thrusts will come from. Obviously, there are only so many options making sense but it's a large front & Ukraine is wily, keeping an eye on Russia & adjusting to opportunities it presents realcontextnews.com/russian-army-c…

THREAD🧵1-Apart from predicting that Finland and Sweden were being driven to NATO by Russia's saber rattling , I engaged in a series of related articles on NATO and the lessons of the Soviet-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940

https://twitter.com/bfry1981/status/1642927940282228736

2-Here I am debunking Putin's NATO narrative as, to use the clinical term, BULLSHIT, bearing no resemblance to reality (just look at what Gorbachev himself said!) realcontextnews.com/putins-nato-na…

Short Bakhmut thread🧵1-There a lot of BUNK being written about Bakhmut right now. The big-picture is worth noting. Russian began this offensive early August, & its Bakhmut campaign is now in its EIGHTH month. Bakhmut is a small city in Ukraine, not eve close to 1 of the largest 2-There are FAR more important cities not long in virtually all directions from Bakhmut. It's NOT some big strategic piece on the chessboard. Its not important. People write about the mines in the area like Russia gonna be up & running them soon. That ain't gonna happen.

THREAD🧵1-On the anniversary of Putin's insane escalatory invasion, a thread on all my content on it (you can find all that work here realcontextnews.com/articles/putin…) 2-It began with a long Small Wars Journal article published on February 21, a few days before the invasion and looking at the context of the coming invasion, through the lens of Russian imperialism, NATO disinformation, Eastern European agency, and timing smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/utter…

THREAD-I've been meaning for some time to put the following thoughts into writing, and plan later to write an article about this. For now, this short🧵
1-There are parts of Russia's prosecution of this war that, at least to most in the modern world, seem just incomprehensible 2-Among the chief of these are the sheer callousness and barbarity of Putin, the Kremlin, Russia's military leaders, and Wagner's Prigozhin towards their own troops. I noted this insanity in early March, but a lot of this seemed to stem from stupidity realcontextnews.com/a-look-at-puti…

THREAD🧵Multiple people have brought this article to my attention so I'm going to give it a rebuttal here allanmlees59.medium.com/russia-is-not-… 1-The first error to me is that the author claims "no small amount of luck" is responsible, among other reasons, for Ukraine's success. 100% disagree 2-Why? The degrees of Ukraine winning & Russia losing are so consistent for so long, it's not luck. If Ukraine keeps surprising us with spectacular attacks, raids, ingenuity, & Russia with its stupidity, that's Ukraine's skill & Russia's culture, not luck realcontextnews.com/russias-defeat…

THREAD on Soledar🧵1-A lot is being made about the situation in Soledar. What is clear from BOTH sides (even Wagner chief Prigozhin is praising Ukraine's performance) is that costs are high on both sides and non-trivial progress has been made by Russia

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1612763293281619969

2-Time for a some history: Pyrrhus of Epirus was a Epirot Greek general called in by Greek southern-Italian city-state Tarentum. In grueling, costly fighting, he kept beating Rome but lost so many troops by the time he got to 2-days-away from Rome's gates, he had to turn back...

THREAD🧵on the current & future state of the Ukraine war 1-This may be the beginning of the phase that will see the end of major combat operations for the war. Russia has for months now lost ability to conduct medium or major offensive operations successfully; only Ukraine can 2-What does this tell us about the big picture? That Ukraine is mostly in control of when, where, the pace of, and how intense the fighting is. When Ukraine takes initiative, it achieves results. At "best" Russia engages in fruitless assaults (Bakhmut) realcontextnews.com/ukrainian-prud…

I really can't stand Jordan Peterson, but to be fully honest, this was beautiful. Not in anyway to glorify "incels," but most of them are not mass-shooters and rapists. Most are just socially awkward men with little experience around women who are lonely By lonely, I don't mean just alone some of the times. Modern life has a way to create so much isolation, and if you are an unattractive, awkward man who makes women uncomfortable with that awkwardness, society has not 1 kind word for you, just endless mockery, scorn, even hate

Russian troops are conducing a war of imperialism, colonization, and mass murder. Ukrainians are defending themselves against this. "Peace" will come when Russia is driven from Ukraine (all of it) and has a well-defended border. Until Russia ceases these actions fully and leaves Ukraine or is driven out fully, there's little to "negotiate" over and Russia breaks almost all the agreement it makes anyway. Russians can "negotiate" with Ukrainian troops on the battlefield and may the best "negotiator" win

1-THREAD🧵Some fun facts about my experience writing for a certain Star Wars fan site, the toxicity of extremists on the right and left in fandoms, on lies, distortion, and general fairness, civility, and how to (not) engage with people when you have an issue 2-I wrote here and there for close to 3 years for this parent company, including 1 long deep-dive for its Game of Thrones site, a piece I was proud of that generated a lot of discussion/traffic about the issues in Season 8 of the show. But most of my content was about Star Wars.