MISINFORMATION
If you put money in a real bank (money market), an interest bearing account, not a "piggy bank", your earning power would have been preserved between 1960 and 2008.
Only talk about finance if you know something about finance.
Misinformation: propagandists present a partial piece of information, factually correct, as a general attribute of the system.
Here to sell cryptos to innocent youths.
This case: nobody puts more than a few $$ in piggy banks or cash accts, salaries & investment are indexed.
3(correction: purchasing power not earning power).
4) Interest rates vs inflation.
Cryptoheads and techies think in labels, no clue about finance.
#Idiots

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More from @nntaleb

Jan 1
If you don't get why, between 2019 and 2022, I turned down exactly 10 requests to be on his podcast, this will provide a succinct explanation. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
BTW, if you want more cues, Mr Lex Fridman does not seem to be part of the faculty at MIT. "Research Scientist" could be an unpaid external status that allows library access.
3) Note: not saying that one must be affiliated to an institution to produce knowledge. But using the name of an institution to build an image is something very shoddy. And sending mail with heading "Quick Note From MIT" when podcast has nothing to do with MIT is shoddy as hell.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
YEAR IN REVIEW 2022, 1
Taught a class (in person)"Static and Dynamic Hedging" owing to the passing of Peter Carr; incorporated my lecture notes into the 1st draft of a book --more technical reformulations of my Dynamic Hedging (1997). ImageImage
YEAR IN REVIEW 2022, 2
Picked up bicycle training after 20y, ~2000 km in 4 months. Had stopped after a near miss. 1) Improved trails & bike infrastructure, 2) drivers aware of cyclists, 3) flashing lights.
If you live in hilly areas, whole HR spectrum.
Hope to do 6000 km in 2023. ImageImage
YEAR IN REVIEW 2022, 3
Wrote essays, the first

medium.com/incerto/how-i-…
Read 6 tweets
Dec 4, 2022
POPPER'S METHOD:
What I did with @bigfatsurprise (I didn't know she os a prpgandist) was make her show me the MOST convincing study: working with HER CHERRYPICKING. The one with "67K", "ignored by mainstream media".

Popper started by clarigying with the most convincing argument.
EPILOGUE One of the most deviously charlatanic persons you can encounter is the shill Nina Teicholz @bigfatsurprise: when unable to grasp a statistical point, she loops & loops then responds by ...fat shaming (based on lies from @saifedean).
Then she complains about MY behavior
The Monsanto technique used by charlatans: they troll you in an offensive way, waiting for you to respond, then blame you by *your* behavior. Nina Teicholz is not alone in this behavior, but plays it extremely well.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4, 2022
Ms Nina Teicholz @bigfatsurprise's own paper shows that cutting on Saturated Fats gives a 98.6% chance of reducing CardioVascular Events, and AT LEAST 86% of reducing mortality.
Statistics is hard for the verbalistic.
cc:thanks to @DrDamluji
2) Please do not invoke "ancestral" diets in support of the consumption of hamburgers and supermarket butter: these were different animals, and were eaten at a different frequency.
3) Furthermore, the Cochrane pple (statistically naive & procedural) treated CV events and CV mortality as independent (one LEADS to the other); if you condition you get a much HIGHER confidence for the drop of mortality from avoidance of Sat Fats, perhaps 99%.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 3, 2022
The thread below shows the severe defect of AI: verbalism. It works with labels, maximally shallow thinking not any better than buzzwords.
See also below my definiton of verbalism.
3) The AI responses remind me of @ptetlock's
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
Banning Trump after Jan 6 is entirely compatible with the foundations of democracy, even necessary. By the Gödel-Popper rule, a democracy should never give its tools to those who want to thwart it.
Turns out the constitution has a variant of the Gödel-Popper rule.

Note that the name "Gödel-Popper rule" is something I put together to merge Popper's paradox of tolerance and Gödel's naturalization's anecdote, see Skin in the Game.

I am tired of *verbalisms* thrown at me with concepts such as "freedom of expression", "democracy", etc.
Idiots *think* in labels. Image
Read 4 tweets

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