Chris Black Profile picture
Jan 12 4 tweets 3 min read
What do you do when you're watching the Nuggets game & Jokic goes to the bench to rest?

You look at Zach Thompson cutters!

Mini #BlueJays ⚾️🧵starting with this: The problem was with cutters vs lefties & the problem was predictability.
LHB vs Thompson Cutter
'21: .211 avg, .316 slug, .281 wOBA, 0 HR
'22: .378 avg, .778 slug, .513 wOBA, 4 HR

1st clip vs Freeman tipped me off: 1-1 count, pitch on edge, but he was all over it, pulling hands in, etc...

Then you look at heat maps of his cutter & a story develops.
He threw cutters to the outside corner vs LHB ~5-6 times more often in 2021 compared to 2022.

He essentially threw it in one spot this year.

Good hitters & good teams pick up on that & zone in.

If he mixes it up more, goes backdoor again, the cutter results can improve (end).
hope that works for you @JaysKid_RHP!

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More from @DownToBlack

Jan 13
Ricky Tiedemann #BlueJays ⚾️🧵

This is about believing the hype, swag, (un)reasonable expectations, modern pitch usage, a near-unique delivery, historical comps & what's left to work on.

Let's start here: Prospect Rankings
33rd in MLB (1st in Org)
8th-ranked pitcher (2nd LHP)
According to @baseball_ref, Tiedemann led ALL Minor League pitchers (75+ IP) with a 0.86 WHIP.

In his first pro season.

At age 19.

2.17 ERA, 117 K/29 BB.

Filthy, video game stuff & one of the things I like most about him is he carries himself like an ace.

He's got swag.
Gold chain, high socks, long hair, a sleeve of art work on his throwing arm... It all works!

But that only carries you so far.

The stuff is pure filth too.

I believe @PitchingNinja would call many of these ⚔️
Read 11 tweets
Jan 12
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵 Matt Chapman Defence
Analytics vs Jays Fans!

Let's start here: If last season happened decades ago, Chapman would have won Gold Glove.

Former winner, career-low in errors, "new team" narrative & a collection of hilite reel plays.

But we need to talk about this!
And luckily, someone smarter than me already talked about this in season (see link below).

@mike_petriello dove in mid-season & found there were issues not with errors per se, but just plays not being made by Chapman

I wanted to expand on that!

mlb.com/news/how-conte…
First, some context: It almost would have been impossible for Chapman to maintain his standard because his standard was just so bloody high.

He's one of the best defensive players of his generation, regardless of position & Buck Martinez knew it when he first saw it!
Read 18 tweets
Jan 11
#BlueJays ⚾️🧵Yusei Kikuchi Deep Dive

Another thread about belief in September stats, about finding comps for such a strange year & about mound position & usage.

Let's start here:

Reliever Strikeout Rate
1. Diaz 50.2%
2. Fairbanks 43.7%
3. Williams 40%
4. Kikuchi 39.8%
Now, that leaderboard is obviously tongue-in-cheek (he only has 18 IP as RP), but his performance & aggressiveness in September was really intriguing for hard-core Jays fans.

But it was such a weird year.

Check out this list of 10+ strikeouts per 9, 5+ walks per 9 (100 IP min) Image
Robbie Ray being on that list is interesting for a few reasons...

And the Jays did something with Kikuchi in September 2022 that they did with Robbie Ray in September 2020: They moved him on the mound towards First Base. ImageImage
Read 20 tweets
Jan 11
This legend is getting ready to say goodbye.

I’ve had lots of people ask over the years how such an undersized, underskilled athlete like myself could carry such an oversized amount of swagger, bravado, and shit-talking…

I tell them I got it from my Poppa, Don Coulson. ImageImageImageImage
His swag was off the charts. ImageImageImageImage
Rest easy Old Man. ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24, 2022
So, the popular Day 1 bullet points on Varsho are elite defence, power, can't hit lefties. What else do you need to know about his game?

A short #BlueJays ⚾️🧵on their newest acquisition.

Let's start here: He can swipe bags!

25+ HR & 15+ SB - 2022 MLB
Remember: new rules on pitch clocks, pick offs, and bigger bases will place a greater emphasis on the running game...

So here's another aspect of the game where Varsho will improve the Jays overall...
Next: Varsho's overall numbers might improve because of the shifting rules. Along with Kiermaier & Biggio, Jays have a few hitters now whose performance might spike up just a touch because of this in '23
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24, 2022
One reason the Jays season ended prematurely: Outfield D.

Raimel Tapia didn't make 2 plays that were at least possible to make & the Springer-Bichette collision was on a ball that should have been caught. Simple as that.

But this was a microcosm of a season-long issue.
Saying goodbye to Teo, Lourdes & Tapia isn't about highlight grabs. It's about 50/50 balls, plays most of us honestly just forget. This was Toronto's weakness in the outfield. Too many catchable balls dropping.

Teoscar Hernandez: -3 Outs Above Average, jump -0.3 ft vs MLB avg
Lourdes Gurriel: -5 OAA, jump -1.4 ft vs MLB avg
Read 8 tweets

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