About the🇩🇪🐆wars,🇺🇦FM @DmytroKuleba says this: "First they say no, then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say 'yes' in the end. We're still trying to understand why the🇩🇪government is doing this to itself." Let me try an explanation on grounds of political culture. 🧵
In many countries, governing politicians need to appear strong when it comes to their willingness to defend against a perceived foreign threat. 2/
An 🇺🇸 President will say: "All options are on the table." A 🇩🇪 chancellor will say: "Our path to a solution is diplomacy. But diplomacy also has to work." Essentially, they are saying the same thing, but to different audiences with different political cultures. 3/
Post WWII🇩🇪 will want to make sure that all, really all avenues have been explored, all options are exhausted before the use of force is even contemplated. 4/
There are🇩🇪s, and then there are SPD-followers. They see the SPD as a "peace party" in the tradition of Willy Brandt. They want🇩🇪to ensure escalation is avoided. They want🇩🇪to always bet on a solution by dialogue. To them, "detente" is the🇨🇭army knife of🇩🇪foreign policy.5/
Some of them overlook that Brandt's "detente" was grounded in nearly 4% defense spending and based on an 🇺🇸nuclear umbrella. 6/
They also overlook that Brandt, as mayor of West-Berlin when the wall was built, was a hawk who saw Kennedy as a dove. His "Ostpolitik" initially wanted to induce a "change" in Eastern Europe and East 🇩🇪 that Brandt did not believe 🇺🇸 was willing to stand for. 7/
Today's Social Dems are at least as status quo minded as the country became in 1990 when unification satisfied revisionist aspirations. 8/
Fast forward to 🐆deliveries to 🇺🇦: Social Dems need to reassure their own constituency that they have resisted long enough, have tried all other avenues before one of their own, the chancellor, consents and accepts the ugly reality. 9/
They find this self-reassurance of their own peaceful intentions more important than the 🇩🇪 foreign policy embarrassment that comes with constantly saying "no" before saying "yes." 10/
Do I agree with this approach? No, I don't. On several grounds: it misunderstands the nature of power, the logic of war, the mindset of Putin, and the path to settlement and peace. 11/
As a foreign+security policy hand, I am concerned that this approach undermines 🇩🇪leverage, even on unrelated questions. It will lead to a loss of power and influence. Actually, it already has. 12/
But I would like to ask 🇩🇪's friends and partners: do you pound on 🇩🇪because🇩🇪 does not do what you want it to do? Or because you would like to see this political culture changed? 13/
Are you interested in 🇩🇪 being more hawkish? Are you interested in 🇩🇪moving faster on all things military without consulting with🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷 first, without staying in the middle of the pack? Really? 14/
I am certainly not interested. Staying in the middle of the Western convoi is an insurance policy against some other traits in 🇩🇪 political culture. 15/
While I accept 🇩🇪 not being a leader on all things military, I do not like to see 🇩🇪 as a laggard. On 🐆, it all depends on 🇩🇪. There is no hiding. And it seems, chancellor Scholz is hiding behind perceived or exaggerated 🇺🇸concerns, especially behind President Biden. 16/
My guess: Scholz will come around. He can do more even within the constraints of his party's traditions and within the confines of consultations with🇺🇸. I wonder whether Scholz will insist on agreement with🇺🇸in the same way once a more hawkish🇺🇸president takes office one day. END

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More from @KleineBrockhoff

Oct 29, 2022
Important speech by President #Steinmeier about Putin’s war. He prepares Germans for hard times and an age of confrontation. But the speech is as remarkable for what it mentions as for what it omits. The good, the bad and the ugly - a 13 piece🪵here:
2/ Steinmeier does what🇩🇪 leading politicians (exception: Robert Habeck) have avoided doing so far: saying out loud that the tailwinds which🇩🇪has felt since 1990 have been replaced by headwinds. The times of the peace dividend are over. Every citizen will feel it.
3/ This speech was necessary. It prepares citizens for the moment when economic hardship can no longer be compensated by the government. That moment will come soon.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 25, 2022
“The world’s best and brightest” (@bundeskanzler) came to Berlin for the #RecoveryOfUkraine “expert conference” to engage in “prudent preparation” (@bundeskanzler) for🇺🇦reconstruction. @bundeskanzler and co-host @vonderleyen wanted to listen. What did they hear? A 12-part🧵
2/ The brand-new, never-yet-heard message was:🇺🇦 needs much more help, and fast. It needs action, not promises. Help to survive to even get to reconstruction. So why did @bundeskanzler need “the world’s best and brightest” to educate him about what he can read in the paper daily?
3/ The optimistic version: @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 needs a made-for-TV event with a bunch of highly knowledgeable talking heads (that any think tank could have convened) in order to prepare the German taxpayer for a heavy lift.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 25, 2022
Today @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 and @vonderleyen 🇪🇺 host an expert conference on #UkraineRecovery in Berlin. A 🧵 on how we got here, what to expect and what 🇺🇦 needs. [1/12]
How we got here: In July, 🇨🇭 hosted the first recovery conference. 🇺🇦 presented its #NationalRecoveryPlan, its Western allies didn't respond with a joint plan. The official #LuganoDeclaration only contains 7 broad principles (partnership, sustainability, ...). [2/12]
Several non-papers exist on how to organize reconstruction from a donor perspective, incl. @EU_Commission "Rebuild Ukraine" platform, an @EBRD non-paper about a 3-level structure + secretariat, an @EIB proposal on a "EU-Ukraine Gateway Trust Fund." [3/12]
Read 13 tweets
Oct 9, 2022
2 days of mtgs in Kyiv: the mood in 🇺🇦, victory, 🇷🇺’s options, the nuclear danger, the economy, postwar recovery and the development of 🇺🇦 society - impressions from a @GMF exploratory study tour with @baranowski, @mprochwicz, @IgnatiusPost in this 🧵
1./ Some Ukrainians believe that Stalin’s dictum according to which quantity has a quality of its own is not true in the 🇷🇺 case: no quantity can ever turn into quality.
2./ In their view, the problems of the 🇷🇺 Army are so deeply rooted that mobilization cannot fix them. A million-man army will be a human speed bump. With training, 🇷🇺's mobilized forces can slow down or even temporarily reverse 🇺🇦's advances by spring, these people believe.
Read 17 tweets

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