Thread by @DownToBlack

#BlueJays ⚾️🧵 Matt Chapman Defence
Analytics vs Jays Fans!

Let's start here: If last season happened decades ago, Chapman would have won Gold Glove.

Former winner, career-low in errors, "new team" narrative & a collection of hilite reel plays.

But we need to talk about this!

https://twitter.com/DownToBlack/status/1572813645213749248

And luckily, someone smarter than me already talked about this in season (see link below).

@mike_petriello dove in mid-season & found there were issues not with errors per se, but just plays not being made by Chapman

I wanted to expand on that!

mlb.com/news/how-conte…

First, some context: It almost would have been impossible for Chapman to maintain his standard because his standard was just so bloody high.

He's one of the best defensive players of his generation, regardless of position & Buck Martinez knew it when he first saw it!

But *something* happened last year.

He didn't fall off a cliff but also, this wasn't just one defensive metric noticing a slide.

Three different measurements say Chapman's defence went from HOF great to slightly-better-than-MLB-average, even with errors staying low.

Quick dive into one fact: Defensive metrics are imperfect.

Examples: Chapman was docked close to 3 OAA on plays below.

Should he nearly lose a full OAA for Brantley play?

OAA also doesn't account for that ball from Walsh hitting the mound.

& 3rd one *clearly* Espinal's fault.

Please don't take that as me saying def. metrics don't hold value. They're far better than the ol' eye test!

But what else is going on here?

According to Statcast, the arm strength dropped a tick in '22 & he's slowed down a touch too from his early years in the league.

Speed aspect is interesting to me, because, while fully acknowledging my video search skills are far from perfect, I'm not sure I remember any highlight this year where Chappy turned on burners and covered a bunch of ground to make a play.

Something he did *often* with the A's!

Crude Savant search of quantifying all this:

2017-21, balls fielded by Chapman were turned into outs 89% of the time. Elite, noisy number with far too many variables to take seriously, but when you look at the Jays stats for this since '08, it passes smell test, no?

But we'd all say we view Chapman on Rolen's level, not Brandon Drury's... so what accounts for the 3%?

Again, not about errors, moreso just tough plays he used to make, he didn't make with the same amount of frequency in 2022:

One thing I wish I had a better sense of how to quantify its effect on this is Toronto's shifting.

Chapman was in a shift against a right-handed batter more last year than he was in five previous seasons combined in Oakland.

Does that neuter some of his strengths?

If he were in standard infield alignments more often & if Bo was shaded more towards middle, would we have seen Chapman be more aggressive on balls hit to the 5-6 hole last year?

The other thing the shifts/strategic positioning do is almost negate the need for Chapman's ability to make plays to his right.

He was positioned closer to the line last year than he ever has... and really, does he need it when you see these?

My takeaways from shifting Qs are the same as diving into those OAA calculations: They're mitigating factors to Chapman's defensive drop, but the eye test from watching (a lot) of clips says he just wasn't at the same level last year.

And that's fine! He's still really good!

But again, it's just the sheer amount of highlight plays he made in Oakland that stands out.

Was he solid in Toronto? Absolutely. Did it feel like every throw he made would have gone right square-thru Vladdy's chest? Yep.

But, he wasn't dominant like he was in Oakland either:

It's even just little things like taking an extra split-second on a double play opportunity... those plays never get explicitly noticed or remembered... but they count!

Every little piece & every little play matters in a macro sense over 162!

Can't emphasize enough: He's still really, really good & I think our perception as Jays fans isn't that far off: We were seeing someone play third base really well. We just didn't collectively understand just how good he was in Oakland.

Dude was a video game.

Predictions for 2023:

Stats will be better. I think there was weird luck & the extreme shifts produced some wonky plays too. I think unless sprint speed & arm comes back a bit, his days as the best player at his position might be over.

Man, were they fun to watch though!

More interesting question is Chapman's free agency.

How do you value a guy with a lot of miles on the odometer, who's known primarily for D & whose def metrics are starting to decline?

That thread will come another day.

Just enjoy his hilites for 1 more year at least! (/End)