Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jan 13 7 tweets 3 min read
Let it be known that Friday Jan 13 2023 was the day your psephologist almost ended up living outside the Hobart City boundaries for the first time since 1982 but following events much too bizarre to make up it didn't occur. Hobart is stuck with me for at least another year.
Which #lgtas municipality has dodged the bullet? (Answer order randomised)
And the answer is ... Clarence!

(You really don't need me Clarence. You are lucky to have @Tantusar 's lavish council reporting, @IngridHarrison 's astute general commentary and even at least one closet pseph junkie on your council.)
@Tantusar @IngridHarrison Everywhere I've lived since age 10 fits in roughly this box and the southernmost of these was only for three weeks. Image
(Crazy student housing flatmate found out I had been badmouthing him and asked me to tell him what I had said about him to who. So I did, which took many minutes. Then I moved out until his lease expired, then I moved back in.)
'Hmmm, I told A, B, C and D that you are incapable of cleaning the microwave, I told A and F that you refuse to stop playing Beethoven too loud' and on and on it went.
He was however harmless compared to another flatmate who owned guns and starred in a unique TUU electoral event - exclusion from the distribution of preferences for making a bomb threat against the Vice-Chancellor's car.

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More from @kevinbonham

Jan 14
Some poll-shaped content here with John Scales claiming the Voice is in trouble but no evidence cited other than focus groups (mainstream polling shows Yes with a solid lead at present).
It's also not clear if the comments re Yes being short or only barely ahead are meant to imply a very close Yes vs No race or Yes having barely 50% vs Yes, No and undecided.
By the way there is one detail I want about the Voice. I want the government to explicitly commit that if the Voice is elected, Group Ticket Voting won't be used.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
OK the time has come to consign 2022 to oblivion by counting down the ten most ratioed Australian political tweets of the year! Here's a link to last year' thread but if you retweet that one and not this one you have to follow *l*n M**k for a year.

The usual rules apply. Tweets can qualify by either R/L or QT/RT method (whichever is highest), replies to self are eligible, other replies are not.

Apologies to righties, I try to include some joy for your side here but this year ... I didn't really see any!
Any year in which a nation loses its monarch is sad. We pay tribute to the former member for Goldstein, a Bradmanesque talent in the field with 4.2 times more ratioed tweets than anyone else, but who did not make this year' top ten.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
Even the supposed higher authority that Finn invokes to justify his social issue views wouldn't have a bar of this one.
That said in 2006 (first year of this system) the VEC agreed to recounts with margins of 76 and 114 and the latter changed the margin by ... 205!
Group ticket voting counts can be prone to errors where #1 votes are mistabulated. Here's one I found from the final (quite close) Tas 2013 Senate count six years later.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/05/gladst…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
It's button press day in #VicVotes - not really democracy as such but it can still be fun! I will tweet the provisional results as I get them and this page will have both provisional results and commentary on the distributions once I've analysed them:

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/victor…
E Vic as expected

Heath (Lib)
McIntosh (ALP)
Bath (Nat)
Shing (ALP)
Bourman (SFF)
NE Met as expected

Leane (ALP)
Bach (Lib)
Terpstra (ALP)
McGowan (Lib)
Puglielli (GRN)
Read 30 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
This is actually not a valid objection by itself. After the four quotas, Labour DLP has the highest remainder. Babet won fair and square in the Senate off a similar vote.
The issues here aren't Somyurek's primary vote, they are:

1. Should the name "Labour DLP" which causes confusion be banned?

2. Did group ticket voting, by causing massive ballot papers, amplify name recognition confusion that inflated Labour DLP's vote?

(cont'd)
3. Perhaps on the primary votes cast Somyurek would still have beaten the left in a voter-directed preference system. It's impossible to say. But Group Ticket Voting is depriving the left of a fair fight because of all the Druery party prefs going to Somyurek.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
#Qldpol Courier-Mail Yougov polling but for the noise about "shock" results there is not much to see here, wait for the important ones

couriermail.com.au/news/queenslan…
I've commented about "enjoys the high life" before. The Courier-Mail clearly loves this question but it's not clear if the voters who say yes to it see it as a negative. Would they commission this question if the incumbent was a man?
"Shock result if election held today" coming in an hour might be more interesting - we will see!
Read 19 tweets

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