Ricky Tiedemann #BlueJays ⚾️🧵
This is about believing the hype, swag, (un)reasonable expectations, modern pitch usage, a near-unique delivery, historical comps & what's left to work on.
Let's start here: Prospect Rankings
33rd in MLB (1st in Org)
8th-ranked pitcher (2nd LHP)
This is about believing the hype, swag, (un)reasonable expectations, modern pitch usage, a near-unique delivery, historical comps & what's left to work on.
Let's start here: Prospect Rankings
33rd in MLB (1st in Org)
8th-ranked pitcher (2nd LHP)
According to @baseball_ref, Tiedemann led ALL Minor League pitchers (75+ IP) with a 0.86 WHIP.
In his first pro season.
At age 19.
2.17 ERA, 117 K/29 BB.
Filthy, video game stuff & one of the things I like most about him is he carries himself like an ace.
He's got swag.
In his first pro season.
At age 19.
2.17 ERA, 117 K/29 BB.
Filthy, video game stuff & one of the things I like most about him is he carries himself like an ace.
He's got swag.
Gold chain, high socks, long hair, a sleeve of art work on his throwing arm... It all works!
But that only carries you so far.
The stuff is pure filth too.
I believe @PitchingNinja would call many of these ⚔️
But that only carries you so far.
The stuff is pure filth too.
I believe @PitchingNinja would call many of these ⚔️
It's not just season-long numbers that are obscene. Just look at one game & you get a sense of just how dominant he was...
One early-season game he had a CSW% (called + swing strike rate) of 42%.
Context: Only one MLB starter was above 35% in a game this year (deGrom 37%)
One early-season game he had a CSW% (called + swing strike rate) of 42%.
Context: Only one MLB starter was above 35% in a game this year (deGrom 37%)
How does he do it? First things that stand out are his imposing physical frame (especially for a then-teenager) & his delivery.
When you see angles from behind home plate, you see just how different facing him would be from most pitchers.
When you see angles from behind home plate, you see just how different facing him would be from most pitchers.
Other aspect of his motion that seems unique (to me) is how his arm "releases" or finishes.
Comes across & whips around his body almost parallel to the ground.
Again, would just be a really different look & feel for a lot of hitters, especially seeing him for the first time.
Comes across & whips around his body almost parallel to the ground.
Again, would just be a really different look & feel for a lot of hitters, especially seeing him for the first time.
Other thing that stands out (obviously) is just the quality of his stuff.
Breaking ball has elite, MLB movement already.
Fastball is labelled as 4-seam & doesn't really sink, but the arm action/spin/release give it a TON of run back towards LHB, akin to a 2-seamer.
Breaking ball has elite, MLB movement already.
Fastball is labelled as 4-seam & doesn't really sink, but the arm action/spin/release give it a TON of run back towards LHB, akin to a 2-seamer.
The movement on the pitches, release point, delivery, etc... bring to mind a few MLB comps....
I see a little Sean Manaea, even a little Josh Hader...
but maybe top of that list is Chris Sale.
I see a little Sean Manaea, even a little Josh Hader...
but maybe top of that list is Chris Sale.
Like Sale, Tiedemann is really comfy throwing early count breaking balls, esp vs RHB. When you're releasing the ball from that angle, it's an easy pitch for hitters to give up on & allows Tiedemann to steal a lot of strikes at 0-0 or 1-0.
Also like Sale, he's just death vs LHB.
Also like Sale, he's just death vs LHB.
He only allowed 6 hits all year vs lefties (5 singles, 1 double). Here are the only two I could find... #SoftContact
Like, he's got stuff to work on, but I feel pretty confident he could get MLB lefties out right now.
Like, he's got stuff to work on, but I feel pretty confident he could get MLB lefties out right now.
Now when I say modern usage, it's about using his breaking ball & changeup to augment the fastball, not the other way around.
Check out these 2-out, RISP ABs where he gets ahead with soft stuff then the hitters have no idea what's coming late.
Check out these 2-out, RISP ABs where he gets ahead with soft stuff then the hitters have no idea what's coming late.
What's left to work on?
From watching a ton of clips, I think fastball command is probably at the top of the list in 2023, which gives him something in common with roughly 99% of all 20-year old pitching prospects.
From watching a ton of clips, I think fastball command is probably at the top of the list in 2023, which gives him something in common with roughly 99% of all 20-year old pitching prospects.
Two other MLB comps I wanted to throw out there: Madison Bumgarner & Jake Diekman.
Tiedemann's ceiling is obvs way higher than Diekman's, but when you look at their pitches, velos, movement, they're really similar!
Tiedemann's ceiling is obvs way higher than Diekman's, but when you look at their pitches, velos, movement, they're really similar!
What can you, as Jays fans, expect in near future?
Consider: In franchise history, only 1 pitcher has ever started a game in their age-20 season (Jeff Byrd in expansion '77). Only 4 age-21 pitchers have made 10+ starts too.
So, is "ETA 2024" the best we can hope for?
Consider: In franchise history, only 1 pitcher has ever started a game in their age-20 season (Jeff Byrd in expansion '77). Only 4 age-21 pitchers have made 10+ starts too.
So, is "ETA 2024" the best we can hope for?
Probably? But, his ability to absolutely dominate lefties makes a late 2023 arrival (as situational lefty) more possible than if he was just an overall great pitching prospect.
And it's not unheard of for 20-year old pitchers to shine for competitive teams.
And it's not unheard of for 20-year old pitchers to shine for competitive teams.
Bumgarner: Came up in June 2010, made 18 starts then shone in postseason
Kershaw: Came up in May 2008, made 20+ starts, then pitched in relief in the NLCS
K-Rod: Came up in late September then was a relief star for Anaheim.
And there's a reliever from 2015-16 I won't mention.
Kershaw: Came up in May 2008, made 20+ starts, then pitched in relief in the NLCS
K-Rod: Came up in late September then was a relief star for Anaheim.
And there's a reliever from 2015-16 I won't mention.
The meat of the bell curve says don't expect anything until 2024 and maybe not even significant production until 2025.
But, he's been a developmental star in this org...
And just look at how far Tiedemann has come compared to this 2018 high school video!
But, he's been a developmental star in this org...
And just look at how far Tiedemann has come compared to this 2018 high school video!
Swear this is true: I felt same way about Manoah's potential after diving into his background & video in '21.
There's just something about the whole picture-poise, frame, athleticism, stuff, etc--that says Tiedemann can be special.
Can't wait to see how it unfolds!
There's just something about the whole picture-poise, frame, athleticism, stuff, etc--that says Tiedemann can be special.
Can't wait to see how it unfolds!
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