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Jan 13 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
An already fractious #Venezuela opposition looks even more bitterly divided after exiled leader @leopoldolopez launched an outspoken attack Thursday on fellow members of the #PlataformaUnitaria, calling some of them agents of the @NicolasMaduro govt.
The move earlier this month to disband the 'interim presidency' of Lopez' ally @jguaido sparked the row. The 3 main opposition parties decided the largely fictional presidency (once recognised by dozens of countries) had outlived its usefulness.
The coalition, which is engaged in internationally backed talks in Mexico with the Maduro govt, is now effectively leaderless, pending primaries to choose a candidate for next year's presidential election.
Many fear primaries, if they even take place, could in practice further divide the parties. With govt & opposition both widely seen as corrupt & out of touch, the stage may be set for a radical like @MariaCorinaYA or even an outsider like comedian/businessman @ErGuacharo to win.
The Mexico talks, which resumed in November after a year's suspension, are once again in trouble. Maduro says he won't agree to a fresh round until the U.S. fulfils a promise to release billions in frozen Venezuelan funds into a @UN humanitarian account.
Pending is the crucial issue of the presidential election timetable and conditions, including govt bans on the participation of some leading politicians, and monitoring by international observation teams.
If Maduro makes concessions on these fronts, Washington has promised sanctions relief, while further delay could trigger a fresh round of sanctions.
But with Maduro dragging his heels and the opposition in disarray, prospects for further advances seem dim at present.

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More from @philgunson

Phil Gunson Profile picture
Nov 22, 2021
With most results from Sunday’s local and regional elections in #Venezuela in, the overall picture is, as expected, of another sweeping victory for President Maduro and candidates of the PSUV party. But the details hold clues to the likely evolution of Vzln politics. 🧵: 1/
The PSUV’s national vote is substantially down from previous years and collectively the political forces ranged against it - albeit deeply divided - represent a majority. 2/ elmundo.es/internacional/…
What’s more, its rural heartland came under threat as never before. It lost the formerly solid state of Cojedes, and both Apure and Barinas - the home state of the late Hugo Chávez - have yet to be called. 3/ ntn24.com/america-latina…
Read 14 tweets
Phil Gunson Profile picture
May 11, 2021
Once again @jguaido rejects piecemeal agreements with the govt of @NicolasMaduro (including the new #CNE), accusing those involved of "conspiring with the dictatorship" to legitimise "tyranny and loyal opposition".
He calls for "greater pressure" on the govt to compel it to agree to a "National Salvation Agreement", in exchange for certain guarantees, including transitional justice.
The progressive lifting of sanctions would occur, under this scheme, only once the comprehensive agreement is reached, and only in response to specific, concrete steps to implement it, with punishment for backsliding.
Read 5 tweets
Phil Gunson Profile picture
May 4, 2021
Today’s appointment of a new electoral authority (CNE) in #Venezuela, with an increased opposition presence, is the strongest hint yet that @NicolasMaduro wants a thaw in relations with Washington. (Thread) 🧵
Formally appointed by the govt-dominated National Assembly, the five-member CNE board (plus 10 reserve members) is actually the result of lengthy private negotiations with factions of the opposition opposed to @jguaido’s all-or-nothing policy.
Maduro has in the past two weeks responded to U.S. demands for “concrete measures” with a number of moves, of which the CNE appointments represent the latest, and potentially the most significant.
Read 11 tweets
Phil Gunson Profile picture
Oct 26, 2020
#Venezuela opposition leader @leopoldolopez, who fled the country at the weekend after 18 months holed up in the Spanish ambassador's residence, had insisted he would never go into exile. His departure comes at a low point in opposition fortunes. What will it mean? (Thread)
The Spanish government says his decision to leave was "personal and voluntary", but Venezuela's foreign ministry accused the Spanish ambassador of being an "accomplice" to the escape of a "dangerous criminal".
Diplomatic fireworks aside, the Maduro government may be glad to see the back of him, and Spain certainly won't be sorry their "guest" (as they insist he was) has finally checked out. The intelligence agents parked permanently outside the residence can now be redeployed.
Read 8 tweets
Phil Gunson Profile picture
Jul 15, 2020
Gracias Francisco. Lo que voy a decir no es una defensa de las sanciones. Como sabes, en @CrisisGroup no estamos a favor de las sanciones sectoriales. Tampoco soy economista. Dicho eso, vamos por partes (hilo).
No he leido el original de @miguelsantos12 que cita @eduardo_semtei pero aparentemente se refiere al "deterioro generalizado" de #Venezuela. Limitarnos a describir el impacto sobre el PIB, o sobre el petroleo, por lo tanto, no constituye una respuesta adecuada. Pongamos ejemplos:
1. Supongamos que en vez de saquear el FIEM - y luego el Fonden - los gobiernos chavistas hubieran ahorrado el excedente en ingresos petroleros. Y que no se hubiera desmantelado la mayor red de refinacion del hemisferio.
Read 9 tweets

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