1. What role for aerosols in climate change and SARS/respiratory ID transmission?
“That your gas stove can cause more exposure than a nearby highway is counterintuitive. But intuition is wrong. Measurements, models, principles of air pollution dispersion are right.” #SIDU 230114
“That your gas stove can cause more exposure than a nearby highway is counterintuitive. But intuition is wrong. Measurements, models, principles of air pollution dispersion are right.” #SIDU 230114
https://twitter.com/jonlevyBU/status/1613732180907229184
2. Interesting exchange with @jembendell, with whom I see eye to eye on climate (Hansen’s Faustian aerosol bargain), even if not yet on SARS.
Aerosols transport virions in airborne droplets that move like smoke.
Aerosols transport virions in airborne droplets that move like smoke.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1614191443832369152
3. To mount an infection, virions landing in your mouth or eyes need to outnumber antibodies. Each droplet carries around 700 virions; if you have some 1000 antibodies in place, you need 1000 virions.
This is what made Omicron so dangerous: 1-2 droplets - a breath - can suffice.
This is what made Omicron so dangerous: 1-2 droplets - a breath - can suffice.
4. Viral load is determined by how many viral copies one infected cell creates. For the SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan strain it was estimated to be around 1:700.
This is low - measles level! -, requires two infectious droplets.
You now understand the mechanics of R and disease transmission.
This is low - measles level! -, requires two infectious droplets.
You now understand the mechanics of R and disease transmission.
5. Most viruses have higher viral load.
1:10,000 is not unheard of for influenza. This is where virologists ignorant of epidemiology are wrong.
Influenza kills. It starts with high viral load and evolves to levels low enough for infected hosts to survive.
SARS is the opposite.
1:10,000 is not unheard of for influenza. This is where virologists ignorant of epidemiology are wrong.
Influenza kills. It starts with high viral load and evolves to levels low enough for infected hosts to survive.
SARS is the opposite.
6. What, then, happens with SARS?
Influenza takes over the infected cell, short-circuits its function, and replicates in uncontrolled positive feedback loops until the cell explodes, spewing virions all around to infect other cells - like confetti at children’s birthday parties.
Influenza takes over the infected cell, short-circuits its function, and replicates in uncontrolled positive feedback loops until the cell explodes, spewing virions all around to infect other cells - like confetti at children’s birthday parties.
7. CoV evolved to perfection over millions to billions of years. Betacoronaviruses evolved for viral persistence, leaving the infected cell to carry out its normal duties. They replicate in controlled feedbacks.
SARS doesn’t kill. It even extends the cell’s programmed lifecycle!
SARS doesn’t kill. It even extends the cell’s programmed lifecycle!
https://twitter.com/realcheckmarker/status/1610238244985110529
8. What drives evolution in SARS?
SARS - like other RNA viruses and possibly DNA viruses—but less well researched for them - moves in quasi-species swarms in the body, using quantum mechanics principles.
Among other parameters, increased viral load outcompetes lower viral load.
SARS - like other RNA viruses and possibly DNA viruses—but less well researched for them - moves in quasi-species swarms in the body, using quantum mechanics principles.
Among other parameters, increased viral load outcompetes lower viral load.
9. This is how Delta rose from the Wuhan wildtype VL of 1:700 to a viral load of about 1:950. It corresponds to increased severity.
Suspended @NoyesJHumphrey here not fully correct, I believe, but worth sharing.
Suspended @NoyesJHumphrey here not fully correct, I believe, but worth sharing.
10. What, then, happened with Omicron?
It is the big question no one asks.
We were lucky: Omicron reversed the long-term trend of increasing viral load, buying us one year.
We pissed it away for palliative pleasure-feeding instead of sustainable precautions, sorry about that
It is the big question no one asks.
We were lucky: Omicron reversed the long-term trend of increasing viral load, buying us one year.
We pissed it away for palliative pleasure-feeding instead of sustainable precautions, sorry about that
11. Omicron resulted from a ten-month dip in the viral load growth trend. It involved an adaptive mechanism to evade immunity.
The ratio was 100:1000. Now 100 viral particles* could mount the infection that cost Delta 1000 virions.
10 months? Sounds a lot like pregnancy, right?
The ratio was 100:1000. Now 100 viral particles* could mount the infection that cost Delta 1000 virions.
10 months? Sounds a lot like pregnancy, right?
12. Here @RealCheckMarker elaborates on this theory in response to a good study by @sigallab. HIV and SARS researchers really should urgently talk and launch joint research.
We are years behind the virus, I’m afraid, not least because there isn’t enough funding.
We are years behind the virus, I’m afraid, not least because there isn’t enough funding.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1596182996696305664
13. Very hard to get funding even in a raging pandemic if most people think it is somehow “over” just because people aren’t dropping dead on the street in broad daylight.
Well, there’s some of that, but science-illiterates blame vaccines, so even people dropping dead don’t help.
Well, there’s some of that, but science-illiterates blame vaccines, so even people dropping dead don’t help.
14. Since Delta (1:950) and Omicron (via antibody evasion) increased viral load to well above, say, 750 virions, successfully transmission of SARS is more common.
This explains high values for Rt; it is through these dynamics that you can understand - and prevent - transmission.
This explains high values for Rt; it is through these dynamics that you can understand - and prevent - transmission.
15. Shall I continue my thread?
Compare the delusional state of nasopharyngeal PCR test based fiction. You don’t even have viral load test or ongoing population-level seroprevalence surveillance. 🤦🏻♀️
This thread, @OlafGersemann, is almost certainly false, just in time for Davos.
Compare the delusional state of nasopharyngeal PCR test based fiction. You don’t even have viral load test or ongoing population-level seroprevalence surveillance. 🤦🏻♀️
This thread, @OlafGersemann, is almost certainly false, just in time for Davos.
https://twitter.com/olafgersemann/status/1614819216699584513
16. #SIDU 230116 WHO/Europe shares this good epidemiological app.
With states and media in denial, there is no good data - but here it is for the European+ nations that report.
Look at these numbers @OlafGersemann; how is the pandemic (syndemic) over?
worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/euro-covid19/
With states and media in denial, there is no good data - but here it is for the European+ nations that report.
Look at these numbers @OlafGersemann; how is the pandemic (syndemic) over?
worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/euro-covid19/
17. “Is the pandemic over today?”
Handy little cheat sheet to answer our favorite question:
🤦🏻♀️😂 carry on everyone,
Handy little cheat sheet to answer our favorite question:
🤦🏻♀️😂 carry on everyone,
18. Also over: reliable COVID data
Congratulations @mikrowie to great work at @rki_de and to resigning rather than being scripted.
Congratulations @mikrowie to great work at @rki_de and to resigning rather than being scripted.
https://twitter.com/viktoriakeller_/status/1614904376644050944
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