Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

Let's talk about tanks.

Specifically, why they will help Ukraine now and why rumors of their "death" were greatly exaggerated.

[THREAD]

Tanks have been discussed throughout the entire Ukraine-Russia War. But the debate heated up recently (well captured by the "Free the Leopards" campaign) with various NATO countries deciding to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

euronews.com/2023/01/05/fre…

News on tanks has been coming fast, but @RikeFranke is a terrific follow for keeping track of what's going on (especially as it pertains to Germany).

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1612102805128454145

Germany has been at the center of the debate because -- as the "Free the Leopards" slogan suggests -- the tanks to be shipped are German built Leopard tanks (which "may" require German approval for others to re-export).

reuters.com/world/europe/w…

Sending tanks to Ukraine appears to be an obvious thing to do: Russia is using tanks, why shouldn't Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1612798137659424768

Indeed, while Ukraine has made progress against Russian forces, sending tanks is seen as a "game changer"

worldpoliticsreview.com/ukraine-tanks-…

Why a "game changer"? Because more analysts are recognizing that this will be a long, protracted war (this new @foreignaffairs piece by @IvoHDaalder & @JimGoldgeier is just one example of such commentary).

https://twitter.com/JimGoldgeier/status/1612484231950913536

I write "more analysts" because others saw this war as heading down the protracted route much earlier (for example, @TheEconomist had a cover story on this becoming a long war back in June)

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1603683106577416192

The reality is that the war is now clearly in the fourth scenario that I discussed with @DKThomp back in September: under current conditions, Russia can't win, but won't lose.

Tanks could make the difference for Ukraine, allowing for the first scenario.

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1569681383647285249

Despite those who are now calling for the sending of tanks, others disagree.

Fairly early in the war, the narrative arose that tanks are obsolete...

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

...with the view now popular among non-military experts that tanks are nothing more than "a death trap".

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1611669863097069569

This debate calls for us to step back and ask a basic question: what do tanks actually do?

From the moment that tanks were first used in 1916 at the Battle of the Somme...

iwm.org.uk/history/voices…

...the answer is pretty straightforward: to provide mobile, protected lethality on the battlefield.

warontherocks.com/2022/04/the-ta…

As this @TheEconomist interactive explainer states: "Armies...need ways to move their troops forward...need to shield those soldiers as they advance...need firepower to punch through defences. The tank combines these three capabilities in a single device"

economist.com/interactive/in…

But tanks alone are not all that useful.

For example, research shows that relying on mechanization alone can undermine counter-insurgency. They need to be combined with infantry.

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

On a battlefield, tanks need to be combined with both infantry & air power. Think of how German "blitzkriegs" were successful in early World War II because Panzer tanks were supported by low flying airpower.

Moreover, tanks are necessary to make other weapons effective. This is the essence of findings that air power works only when combined with ground power.

amazon.com/Bombing-Win-Co…

This is why its being pointed out that Russia's failures with tanks in this war is not because tanks are obsolete, but because they are being used wrong.

But there is a more fundamental reason that tanks -- in some form -- will remain relevant to warfare. At the end of the day, war is about territory: invading, acquiring, and holding land.

warontherocks.com/2021/12/this-l…

Indeed, key to declaring victory in war is the ability to hold land. Holding land requires a physical, protected presence. Tanks offer that.

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1533418261177683970

So, no, tanks are not obsolete.
warontherocks.com/2022/09/the-ta…

In short, tanks will be vital for Ukraine to continue fighting this war. But they are not a "silver bullet" solution for Ukraine. They can be PART of a "game changing" solution to the war, but not the WHOLE solution.

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