En tråd om hvordan @EkstraBladet og måske især @michelwd plagierer ideer, som de modtager udefra
D. 3 November 2022 skriver jeg til Michel Davidsen og præsenterer konceptet VM-sladder, som skal dække alt det kulørte uden for kridtstregerne i fodbolden
Konceptet er scriptet, kontekstualiseret og vi vedlægger dummys og manus.
Herudover foreslår vi at sladder programmet kan fortsætte om Superligaen efter VM, hvis programmet bliver en succes - “Sladderligaen” ligger lige for
2/n
Michel Davidsen @michelwd leverer ikke meget feedback og vi henvender os derefter til Asger Juhl for at følge op, som hurtigt vender konceptet med Michel Davidsen.
Ekstra Bladet takker nej tak til VM-sladder / Sladderligaen.
Det er ikke noget for dem mener de..
3/n
Fast forward til anden uge af Januar hvor @michelwd stolt annoncerer, at han og Ekstra
Bladet annoncerer “Sladderligaen”
Et originalt EB koncept, må man forstå
4/n
Jeg er hverken ude på at beklage mig, få penge eller lignende vendetta. Jeg overlever fint uden.
Jeg synes måske bare det var rimeligt at i fik at vide, hvem som fik ideen.
Michel Davidsen var det i hvert fald ikke.
God weekend
Jeg var højst sandsynligt ikke nogen oplagt vært, Michel er væsentlig dygtigere omkring fodbold osv osv
Jeg forstår udmærket bevæggrunden, men jeg synes bare ikke det er ordentligt ikke at kreditere eller i det mindste underrette mig.
Det er virkelig uordentlig opførsel
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This week: 1) Why a recession is more likely in H2-2023 2) Why Service inflation (ex shelter) is about to drop markedly 3) Why USD liquidity could WRONGFOOT bears short-term
1/n
Our weighted average of forward looking indicators hints of a >50% probability of a recession starting in Q3.
The recession probability in the first half of 2023 remains VERY low.. That is in sharp contrast to consensus among investment bank strategists
2/n
The services ex shelter inflation lags the wage cycle and the Atlanta Fed wage tracker and job openings have ROLLED over.. This will feed in to service inflation during Q1 and Q2 slowly but surely
Time for our weekly update on how traders are positioned across assets..
Are you leaning the same way as the crowd? A thread
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JPY positioning remains VERY short despite the recent rally.. There is PLENTY of ammo left in the JPY trade, if BoJ is forced to move the needle further
2/n
Equity sentiment is the worst on record in many time series. The number of consecutive net "bearish" prints in the AAII survey is currently beating former records
What is cheap and what is expensive in equity space?
A thread 1/n
The best earnings yield (inverse P/E) is found in the energy space, which is FAR above historical averages, while the earnings yield in Tech remains BELOW historical averages in contrast
Healthcare is the defensive sector with the most compelling earnings yield
2/n
The European energy space looks insanely cheap on multiple analysis with an earnings yield of 17% on expected earnings. Almost double of historical means..
China is reopening, while the West is on the brink of a recession. A CRAZY macro cocktail
A thread
1/n
Copper is a big mover this week, while China sensitive stocks such as German high beta stocks perform.. Even oil has started moving a bit due to the Chinese hopium
So why are inflation swaps not moving?
2/n
We are standing at one of the most bizarre crossroads in Macro I have seen in my career
Everyone and their mother agrees that a recession is imminent (I do as well) and yet we need to discount the reopening of the second biggest economy in the world at the same time
3/n