Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ The Wagner Group's apparent success in capturing Soledar appears to have been a Pyrrhic victory, with the mercenaries suffering such massive casualties that their future and ability to recover are now reportedly in doubt. ⬇️

2/ It was previously reported that Wagner's head Yevgeny Prigozhin saw the assault on Soledar as a way of strengthening his hand against the Russian Ministry of Defence (see below). However, Wagner's losses may now make this more difficult.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1613474459389939712

3/ The Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it that Prigozhin has gone to St Petersburg to discuss Wagner's fate, possibly with Putin. The source says:

4/ "There are suspicions that Wagner will be merged into the military. The Ministry of Defence troops in Soledar are now so spread out that it is not very clear whom they are blocking: the 'Musicians' [Wagner] or the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

5/ "Prigozhin flew away 'grey', but promises to deal with the situation at the top. It certainly doesn't look like a win."

Wagner also reportedly has major problems in replacing its losses.

6/ According to the source, "New raids on the zones [penal colonies] have started, but it's like a spoon poking at the bottom of an empty pot. Everyone who could was taken earlier.

7/ There were calculations at Wagner that they would be given the "500s" (refuseniks), but so far this has stalled. Prigozhin is hoping to push the issue through. And they are waiting for a new mobilization, which should add [more] '500s'."

8/ (For more on Wagner possibly forcibly recruiting refuseniks into penal battalions, see the thread below.)

The outcome of the battle of Soledar appears not to have strengthened Prigozhin's position as much as he had hoped earlier.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1612348451659960321

9/ "Prigozhin has been cheering everyone on, but there is a sense that he has lost confidence in his position, so the focus is shifting from the battlefield to information policy.

Now the main work will be done by those of his people who are in charge of media coverage.

10/ "Another of the attitudes is not to provoke the military. It is also forbidden to swear at [General Valery] Gerasimov.

Everyone prays that they don’t have to repeat everything with Bakhmut – the scale is gigantic compared to Soledar.

11/ "And there are no new people yet, the supply of shells has not been solved with the Ministry of Defence either. Moreover at Kreminna-Svatove, the 'Musicians' have to defend themselves there...

12/ Everybody is waiting for the big mobilization, and everything will become clear after it. In particular, whether Wagner will receive 500s." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/35926
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/35935