Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15 16 tweets 5 min read
This Russian Mobik unit suffered a 50% attrition rate in 10 days?!?

👀

That is a 5% a day loss rate on an active, but secondary to Solidar/Bukhmut, front.

Casualty🧵
1/
US/NATO ground doctrine considers 2.5% losses in any single engagement something you change tactics and use stand off weapons to reduce the position before trying again.

5% a day is 62.5% the USMC daily casualties of at Tarawa/Betio.

Army's collapse from that level...

2/
...of sustained losses, historically.

Also, historically, 30% losses in a short time require ground units to be refitted because they are combat ineffective.

50% losses in 10 days?!?!🤯

3/
See the chart from C.G. Blood's US Navy report "SHIPBOARD AND GROUND TROOP CASUALTY RATES AMONG NAVY AND MARINE CORPS PERSONNEL DURING WORLD WAR II OPERATIONS"

Tarawa was 80 casualties per 1000 troops for 3 days.

Those Mobiks have done 50 per 1000 per day for 10 days.

4/
This sort of loss rate confirms for me the stories that the Russians are reviving NKVD style 'back stop units' that shoot retreating troops and especially penal units.

5/
Anyone saying Russian casualties are roughly _EQUAL_ to Ukraine's - I'm looking at you, US intelligence agencies - are incompetents deserving job termination.

Everyone who isn't a member of US intelligence can see this fact.

6/
This translated Ukrainian video from @wartranslated makes that clear.

1st, Ukrainian troopers are trained as lifesavers, check off the "Platinum 5-minutes."

2nd, Ukraine evacuates wounded w/in 1 hour, check off the "Golden hour."

7/
The Ukrainian medic/doctor in this video is talking about _company level_ medical aid stations/evacuation points.

US/NATO medical standards only have those at battalion level.

8/
Given the relative lack of helicopter medevac inside Ukraine, due to long range Russian SAM's.

This additional medical aid at low levels is the only reasonable way Ukraine can be achieving Americans in 2010 & later Iraq casualty ratios (1-to-7 to 1-to-10 KIA to WIA).

9/
Ukraine has more manpower than heavy weapons.

So putting a larger than NATO standard percentage of that manpower with civilian SUV's into battlefield medical care and evacuation of those who are armed with heavy weapons is a very smart manpower choice.

10/
Russian Mobiks are meat for the Ukrainian sausage grinder.

Ukrainian soldiers are valuable citizen-soldiers whom the Ukrainian state cares deeply for and will do its utmost to see to it that they survive.

11/
It's also why Ukrainians have literally bulletproof Western helmets and body armor w/ceramic inserts plus adequate combat engineering.

Ukrainian soldiers fight from improved fighting positions whenever AFU can arrange it, as far back as 2015.

12/
And despite all of that the medic/doctor @wartranslated translated from in that video stated Ukraine was taking frostbite casualties.

How much of that 5% a day Mobik casualty rate are cold injuries like trench foot and frostbite?

I've posted on that
13/
...and since then, retweeting this translation of other Mobiks complaining about having no winter boots.

14/
While others have reposted a
Special Kherson Cat video of a captured Russian Mobik wearing women's boots, because the Russians had no mens winter boots to equip him.

15/
Let's be clear. For every Ukrainian trench foot or Frostbite cold injury.

Mobiks are taking at least 10.

It's the difference between Ukrainian citizen-soldiers and waves of Russian “myaso” [AKA meat, cannon fodder]

16/16 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 17
Whenever you see Western political or media elites talk about "A major escalation in the war" whenever Ukraine is armed to defend itself.

You are seeing another victory for the Russian "Reflexive Control" information warfare doctrine.

1/5
I've referred to this Russian infowar doctrine repeatedly.



2/5
And I've dropped relevant excerpts here.

3/5

Read 5 tweets
Jan 16
@thinkdefence has a very interesting question on the Russo-Ukrainian War with a set of answers that reflects his interests.

I think this is a useful crowdsourced learning exercise.

I'm going to repost my top three takeaways & add my reasons.

Please post yours in reply.
1/
What Ukraine has changed or reinforced my thinking on:

1. Industrial warfare never went away.
2. Western military procurement is broken
3. Western Intelligence is broken/incompetent on anything to do with logistics & supply chains.

2/
My reasons for that list

#1 - Russia was throwing 65,000 shells a day and Ukraine was throwing 5K to 15K shells a day in return. Russia has lost ~8K armored fighting vehicles/artillery/trucks & Ukraine ~2K.

#2 - Everyone in the West prefers shiny new platforms, jets, tanks
3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
This is the first picture I've seen of the Russian GTD-1250 gas turbine engine.

It looks smaller but not that different than an M1 Abrams get turbine from the same angle.

[A reflections on Western military maintenance practices & Western weapons transfers to Ukraine🧵]
1/
Comparing it to a similar angle with the AGT 1500 gas turbine engine of the M-1 Abrams MBT...

...leaves me asking why Ukrainians who currently maintain that Russian engine couldn't be rapidly transitioned to the Abrams engine.🤨🤔

2/ Image
The fundamental principles of operation are the same and the culture the Ukrainian maintenance force comes from is simply far more computer savvy than Egyptian, Saudi & Iraqi maintainers of the M1 Abrams.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Jan 13
@elisabethmalom1 Ms. Gosselin-Malo,

A lot of firms may be planning to increase shell production, but the ability to do so is predicated on expanding a vanishingly small work force skill set that 'finishes' shells after molten explosive is poured in them.

See the figure:

1/
@elisabethmalom1 This is the highlighted text:

"Subsequent operations - solidification of explosive charges, disassembly of funnels, milling and cleaning of cavities, however, are energy, time and personnel demanding."

2/
@elisabethmalom1 There is a direct one to one increase required in that human workforce skills set and increased artillery production.

Dealing with high energy explosive materials requires screening and wash out of many individuals to get the right combinations of long attention span and
3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 13
@CharlesFLehman The New York homicide rates pre 1961 & post 1961 are a case of comparing apples to bananas due to the changes in trauma care see:
Injury Prevention, Violence Prevention, and Trauma Care: Building the Scientific Base
Supplements
October 7, 2011/60(04);78-85
cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…
@CharlesFLehman Trauma care centers (1961), standardized trauma procedures (1978), adoption of military Korea/Vietnam medical emergency treatment & air transport procedures, & improved triage (1986) have drastically reduced death in the USA from severe injury.
2/
@CharlesFLehman Adjustments upward on murder data post 1961 are required to account for reduced mortality from the same level of wounds in order to have direct data comparisons to understand real cultural levels of lethal violence.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 12
When you watch this video from @wartranslated, there are two things missing.

1st, the shovels, where are the Mobiks shovels? Mobiks seem to get none/few.

2nd, the trench itself has a concrete bottom for water drainage...

...but where is the firing step?

Russian Trench 🧵
1/
There isn't anything like what you see in the WW1 photo below I found in @Nero222's account below.

2/
I'm by no means a combat engineer.

I have never been a day in a military uniform, but I've read enough military history to know that is so wrong as either a field fortification or as a fighting position...I don't know what to say.

3/
Read 10 tweets

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