1/ Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has posted a video, apparently filmed in or near Soledar, in which he praises the capabilities and skills of Wagner fighters, implicitly casting them as superior to the regular Russian military. Translation below. ⬇️
2/ "I came here to present medals to the guys who took Soledar. This is the man who commanded the capture of Soledar. He liberated it in two weeks. Soledar was clamped in a pincer, then divided into parts.
3/ "The enemy units were surrounded, those who refused to surrender were destroyed. All the bodies of Ukrainian servicemen will be handed over and sent to their homeland.
4/ "Numerous questions from journalists ask how and why the [fighters of the] Wagner private military company have such efficiency. Firstly, they have been fighting for many years. They are probably the most experienced army in the world.
5/ "Secondly, they perform all tasks independently. They have aircraft, the pilots are heroes who are not afraid to die. There are MLRS of all kinds. There is air defence, which has already shot down a huge number of enemy aircraft.
6/ There are artillery of all calibres, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and assault units that have no equal in the world.
And the most important thing in Wagner is the control system. A perfectly developed control system.
7/ In the Wagner PMC, everyone can hear, everyone can say their opinion. The commanders consult with the fighters, and the leadership of the PMC consults with the commanders. If a decision is made, then all tasks will completed, no one can retreat.
8/ "[Wagner has] the most severe discipline that gives us these opportunities. Therefore, the PMC Wagner went forward and will go forward."
9/ The Russian Telegram channel 'Special Purpose Channel' names the Wagner commander in the video as 'Lotos', who it says is a 'hero of Russia'.
10/ Another Russian Telegram channel, the pro-Kremlin 'Brussels Connection' channel, has published a picture of the medal awarded by Prigozhin, which bears the words "For the capture of Soledar".
11/ Meanwhile, Wagner sources admit that they do not yet control the whole of Soledar. A source tells the VchK-OGPU channel that Ukraine still controls the western edge of Soledar and the village of Blahodatne, across the river Bakhmutka (shown in this map).
12/ "Nobody is actively storming it any more. Active fighting has subsided," according to the source. He says that it is extremely difficult to attempt anything in this area as "everything is shot at" by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and any attempts lead to numerous casualties.
13/ Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, Wagner members fighting in the city's eastern outskirts around Patrice Lumumba Street – shown in yellow in the red area of this map – say they are experiencing very difficult conditions and things are "tense" there.
14/ According to a video interview, continuous Ukrainian artillery fire against Wagner positions is seriously hampering movement during daylight hours. The Wagner-linked Grey Zone Telegram channel reports:
15/ "During the day, the street is mainly used for emergency medical evacuations only, and the residential buildings here are almost completely destroyed as PMC fighters knocked out the Ukrainian soldiers who had set up firing points in the houses." /end
1/ The Russian army is planning to deal more harshly with dissent and indiscipline from mobilised soldiers by establishing military prisons at bases where the mobilised are being trained and accommodated. ⬇️
2/ Russia's Central Military District has instructed training units to establish detention facilities for personnel who are being disciplined. The move is in response to a request from State Duma deputy Maksim Ivanov, an ex-GRU member, who has taken a hard line on discipline.
3/ As the 7x7 Horizontal Russia Telegram channel reports, in December Ivanov wrote to the Central Military District demanding that it lock up "those mobilized military personnel who "sow discord or behave in an impertinent manner".
1/ Mobilised Russians from Novosibirsk say they have been sent to the front line without food, winter clothing or enough boots, have to buy their own provisions and have been told that if they want weapons they must take them from the Ukrainians. ⬇️
2/ A few days ago, @wartranslated published the video below showing the men complaining about their conditions. Now the independent Russian media outlet Important Stories (iStories) has interviewed one of them.
3/ The unnamed soldier says that he and his comrades are living "like homeless people", barely surviving in terrible conditions on the front line under constant bombardment. Despite this, they are falsely listed as being stationed in the safer 'green zone' in a rear area.
1/ The identity of the Wagner commander at Soledar has been uncovered: he has been identified as a former soldier named Anton Olegovich Elizarov, who was convicted of fraud in 2014. Meanwhile, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin is reported to now be in a difficult position. ⬇️
2/ The Dossier Centre, an organisation founded by Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky to expose high-level Russian corruption, says it has identified the man who appeared with Prigozhin in a 14 January video (see thread below).
1/ There are increasing signs of an imminent second wave of mobilisation in Russia, according to independent Russian media. The independent outlet Verstka says there are "numerous indications that mobilisation may start at any moment". ⬇️
2/ According to Verstka, "military registration and enlistment offices continue to send out summonses, and in Moscow, a group of specialists who helped the Moscow mayor's office to handle cases of illegal drafts is on 'combat readiness'".
3/ Utility workers are reported to be preparing to deliver mobilisation notices and, according to a source, have been banned from taking holidays in January and February.
1/ Over the past few months, Russia's local governments have been renovating old bomb shelters – even as far away as the border with north-east China – apparently to boost war fever. An entrepreneur has gone a step further by advertising a luxury "bunker hotel" outside Moscow. ⬇️
2/ Cold War-era bomb shelters have been reopened in localities from Belgorod on the Ukrainian border to Blagoveshchensk in the Russian Far East. In Moscow, shops and malls are being adapted to provide shelters with electricity and water for up to 15 million people.
3/ While some of this may be sensible – Ukraine has repeatedly attacked Belgorod and Moscow may theoretically be in range of new Ukrainian long-range missiles – it's likely that the Russian authorities want to instill in their population fear and a sense of being under attack.
1/ Unfortunately this kind of incident does happen in wartime; it's not a surprise and it's not a blunder for Arestovych to admit it. Here's a famous example from the Blitz in World War 2.
2/ On 15 September 1940, RAF pilot Sgt Ray Holmes shot down a German Dornier 17 bomber over London, but was himself brought down by the disintegrating aircraft. (He supposedly rammed it, but this is disputed.)
3/ Two 50kg bombs from the Dornier landed on the lawns of Buckingham Palace but fortunately didn't explode. After losing its tail, the Dornier crashed in the forecourt of Victoria Station.