In today's #vatnik soup I'll discuss how Russia and Putin influenced politics and attitudes in European countries since (at least) 2007 by investing into the energy, financing and the real estate sectors.
1/18
This analysis is based on Catherine Belton's "Putin's People" and Heather A. Conley's fantastic analysis from 2016 called "The Kremlin Playbook", and it partly explains why the West were so hesitant to act against Russia before Feb, 2022.
2/18
"Putin's Web" is a term coined by Belton. It refers to the interplay between intelligence services & economic services to exploit weaknesses in the system. It's a new version of USSR's "active measures", and they applied this tactic effectively in most European countries.
3/18
In the early 2000's, there were signs that Russia wanted to become closer with the Western world, but they just exported their kleptocratic system into the West instead.
In 2009, a group of Central and Eastern European politicians wrote an open letter to Barack Obama.
4/18
In this letter, they spoke of a "Russian economic war" to change and influence countries attitudes. Russia's goal was to change political orientation via economic influence. The basic idea with this "economic war" was that when Russia made a large investment ...
5/18
... in a country, large state revenue was usually involved. This provided incentive for the politicians to support the projects,as some of the funds also benefited the country (or in case of corruption, the politicians).
6/18
After a while,the political influence became so large that it became a dependency.For example,in the early 2000s Hungary had little to no economic ties with Russia. But they became dependent on Russian energy,which also increased Russia's political influence in the country. 7/18
After the politicians were corrupted with Russian money, the dependency grew again stronger. Russia didn't want to raise too many concerns, which is why they did most of the financing via offshore companies and front organizations.
8/18
Another good example is the Nord Stream project, in which Russians involved several prominent political figures, including Gerhard Schröder and Paavo Lipponen.
Besides energy, Russia invested in the financial sector and in real estate.
9/18
By controlling a bank, Russia could control where that bank invests in a country. Real estate business was used to hide funds and influence local politicians. London is one of the prime examples of Russia's real estate businesses in Europe, ...
10/18
... which is why it's sometimes referred as "Londongrad". Russians have invested over 27 billion pounds in Britain, and at least 1,5 billion pounds of that money have been invested into UK property by the Russians.
11/18
To handle all this incoming money, many dubious companies that managed money flow from Russia have emerged in the UK and in the Netherlands.
In Bulgaria the Russians were looking for anti-US/NATO politicians and funded their parties.
12/18
They also mobilized fake-NGO's and funded the media, making it more pro-Russian. By controlling the key politicians, media, energy and financing sector they had Bulgaria in a tight chokehold.
13/18
Because of this "economic war" so many European countries were screwed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They wanted to condemn their actions, but they also had to consider the dependency on Russian energy and/or money.
14/18
When looking at the EU countries and their support for Ukraine, these statistics are very much in line with Russia's influence operations. Of course there are outliers, such as Finland that was heavily dependent on Russia's natural gas.
15/18
One of the biggest losers in all this is Germany. Prioritizing the idea of Ostpolitik (the idea of "change through trade"), they wouldn't condemn Russia's actions after they invaded Crimea, but actually increased their energy imports and focused on the Nord Stream pipeline.
16/18
Their whole economic model is based on Russia's energy imports and goods exports to China, which is why this transition will be extremely painful for them.
But in a German way, they have been extremely effective in eliminating the use of Russian energy.
17/18
Of course this economic war was just one aspect of Russia's influence operations in the West. As I have written before, they also invested huge sums into propaganda and espionage.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American politician and disbarred lawyer, Rudy Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani). He’s best-known for meddling with the pro-Kremlin forces in Ukraine, and for organizing the infamous Four Seasons Landscaping press conference.
1/22
Giuliani rose to fame as the mayor of NYC between 1994 and 2001. He adopted an aggressive enforcement strategy and organized crackdowns on relatively minor offenses like graffiti and cannabis possession. His role in the 9/11 aftermath made him a global superstar.
2/22
This fame gave Rudy new opportunities, and in 2006 he was invited to the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group (ISG), a group that assessed the situation in Iraq. He was soon kicked out of the group due to being more interested in making money by public speaking gigs.
In today’s 300th #vatniksoup, I’ll go through some of the most heroic feats that Ukrainians have achieved since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
In the last 900 days, under-equipped underdog Ukraine has fared well against the imperialist and genocidal Russia.
1/23
As in most conflicts, Ukraine relies heavily on leadership. For this reason, the Kremlin first focused their main propaganda efforts on Zelenskyy, even claiming that he had already fled from Ukraine to Poland. Soon after these allegations, Zelenskyy and his cabinet…
2/23
… published a video from the streets of Kyiv to fight this propaganda campaign. This video quickly became one of the biggest morale boosters for Ukraine, and it has become one of the most legendary and symbolic videos of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a British far-right activist, Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra). He’s best-known for his role in the far-right, Islamophobic organizations like the English Defence League (EDL) and his close connections to the Kremlin.
1/23
Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, was born in Luton and during his youth delved into a life of crime, serving four prison terms between 2005 and 2019. He used several pseudonyms to hide his criminal past, finally sticking to Tommy Robinson.
2/23
Tommy joined the fascist and far-right British National Party (BNP) in 2004 but left a year later. The party didn’t allow non-whites to join and was then led by Nick Griffin, who today is better known for sharing video game footage while claiming it’s real.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American politician and author, JD Vance (@JDVance). He’s best-known for his strong stance against US aid to Ukraine, and for being the Republican party’s nominee for vice president in the 2024 election.
1/20
Vance hails from the small town of Middletown, Ohio. His parents divorced when he was a toddler, JD’s mother struggled with drug addiction, and he was raised primarily by his grandparents. Later he enlisted in the US Marine Corps, and spent 6 months as a PR guy in Iraq.
2/20
In 2016, Harper published JD’s book, Hillbilly Elegy, in which he described his life and hardships, and the socioeconomic problems of his hometown. The book was very successful, and it was even adapted into a shitty Netflix movie. It also made JD famous.
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll discuss the Wagner Group, its founders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, and the mutiny they started on 23 Jun 2023. The event marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Russian MoD conflict, and finally led to the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin.
1/22
Wagner has been used in many conflicts around the world, but they came to global prominence during the war in Donbas in 2014-2015. Wagnerites helped the Donbas separatists fight against the Ukrainians during the conflict, which helped Putin to “outsource” the insurrection.
2/22
The group doesn’t have any central ideology, but many of its members and leaders have ties to various neo—Nazi movements in Russia. For example, Wagner leader Dmitry Utkin had several Nazi symbols tattooed on his body. Neo—nazi group Rusich has also fights as part of Wagner.
3/22
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an Amsterdam-based propaganda channel, Bonanza Media (@bonanzamedia2). It’s best-known for producing & spreading online pro-Kremlin propaganda videos while closely coordinating & collaborating with the Russian intelligence agency GRU.
1/19
Russian intelligence has been extremely active in the Netherlands for a long time. For example in 2018, four GRU agents were caught while trying to hack into OPCW,an organization that monitors the use of chemical weapons. In addition, the International Criminal Court (ICC)…
2/19
…and the MH17 investigation have become targets for the Russian intelligence and propaganda operations. These operations are often complemented with “investigative journalism” media outlets, that often echo the Kremlin’s propaganda and disinformation.