In today's #vatnik soup I'll discuss how Russia and Putin influenced politics and attitudes in European countries since (at least) 2007 by investing into the energy, financing and the real estate sectors.
1/18
This analysis is based on Catherine Belton's "Putin's People" and Heather A. Conley's fantastic analysis from 2016 called "The Kremlin Playbook", and it partly explains why the West were so hesitant to act against Russia before Feb, 2022.
2/18
"Putin's Web" is a term coined by Belton. It refers to the interplay between intelligence services & economic services to exploit weaknesses in the system. It's a new version of USSR's "active measures", and they applied this tactic effectively in most European countries.
3/18
In the early 2000's, there were signs that Russia wanted to become closer with the Western world, but they just exported their kleptocratic system into the West instead.
In 2009, a group of Central and Eastern European politicians wrote an open letter to Barack Obama.
4/18
In this letter, they spoke of a "Russian economic war" to change and influence countries attitudes. Russia's goal was to change political orientation via economic influence. The basic idea with this "economic war" was that when Russia made a large investment ...
5/18
... in a country, large state revenue was usually involved. This provided incentive for the politicians to support the projects,as some of the funds also benefited the country (or in case of corruption, the politicians).
6/18
After a while,the political influence became so large that it became a dependency.For example,in the early 2000s Hungary had little to no economic ties with Russia. But they became dependent on Russian energy,which also increased Russia's political influence in the country. 7/18
After the politicians were corrupted with Russian money, the dependency grew again stronger. Russia didn't want to raise too many concerns, which is why they did most of the financing via offshore companies and front organizations.
8/18
Another good example is the Nord Stream project, in which Russians involved several prominent political figures, including Gerhard Schröder and Paavo Lipponen.
Besides energy, Russia invested in the financial sector and in real estate.
9/18
By controlling a bank, Russia could control where that bank invests in a country. Real estate business was used to hide funds and influence local politicians. London is one of the prime examples of Russia's real estate businesses in Europe, ...
10/18
... which is why it's sometimes referred as "Londongrad". Russians have invested over 27 billion pounds in Britain, and at least 1,5 billion pounds of that money have been invested into UK property by the Russians.
11/18
To handle all this incoming money, many dubious companies that managed money flow from Russia have emerged in the UK and in the Netherlands.
In Bulgaria the Russians were looking for anti-US/NATO politicians and funded their parties.
12/18
They also mobilized fake-NGO's and funded the media, making it more pro-Russian. By controlling the key politicians, media, energy and financing sector they had Bulgaria in a tight chokehold.
13/18
Because of this "economic war" so many European countries were screwed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They wanted to condemn their actions, but they also had to consider the dependency on Russian energy and/or money.
14/18
When looking at the EU countries and their support for Ukraine, these statistics are very much in line with Russia's influence operations. Of course there are outliers, such as Finland that was heavily dependent on Russia's natural gas.
15/18
One of the biggest losers in all this is Germany. Prioritizing the idea of Ostpolitik (the idea of "change through trade"), they wouldn't condemn Russia's actions after they invaded Crimea, but actually increased their energy imports and focused on the Nord Stream pipeline.
16/18
Their whole economic model is based on Russia's energy imports and goods exports to China, which is why this transition will be extremely painful for them.
But in a German way, they have been extremely effective in eliminating the use of Russian energy.
17/18
Of course this economic war was just one aspect of Russia's influence operations in the West. As I have written before, they also invested huge sums into propaganda and espionage.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.
1/21
Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.
2/21
Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about… Vatnik Soup! As some of you know, we also have a website where you can find every soup ever published. The site also has other useful resources, making it the most comprehensive resource on Russian disinformation & vatniks.
1/15
Unfortunately, Elon has flagged the website as malware, as he might not be very happy about the soups I wrote about him - so far, they have garnered over 60 million views on X/Twitter.
The “freedom of speech” spokesperson doesn’t seem too keen on free speech, after all.
2/15
The heart & soul of the website is of course the soups page. There you can find all 360+ soups, which can be sorted chronologically, by popularity, etc. You can also search for soups by title or even in the soup text:
In today’s Wumao Soup, I’ll introduce how and where the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) online propaganda and influence operations work. Due to China’s massive population and advances in AI, CCP-aligned online content has become increasingly visible.
1/20
Like Russia’s troll farms, China has its own troll army: the “50 Cent Party” or “Wumao” refers to state-linked online commentators who are reportedly paid ¥0.50 per post to steer discussions away from criticism and amplify CCP narratives on social media.
2/20
Back in 2017, a research paper estimated that the Wumao produced almost 500 million fabricated comments annually to distract readers and shift topics. In that sense, Wumao operates very similarly to the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” model:
In today’s Vatnik Soup and the “Degenerate Russia” series, I’ll show you the brutal reality of Russian war crimes, in particular the horrific tortures and sexual abuses of children, women and men.
Buckle up, this one is not for the faint-hearted.
1/24
For over a decade now and as part of their “firehose of falsehood” propaganda strategy, Russia has been spreading false narratives targeted at right-wing/conservative audiences, portraying russia as a bastion of Christian, traditional,family values.
In the previous “degenerate Russia” series we discussed Russia’s insanely high divorce rates, rampant domestic violence, high murder rates, thriving neo-Nazi culture, corruption of the Orthodox Church, and their massive demographic problem:
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explore how Russia is working with Iran, and how the recent Israel–US strikes on Iran could affect the war in Ukraine. Iran has been one of Russia’s key allies in their genocidal war, but in reality the partnership is deeply one-sided.
1/21
Historically, Russia/USSR has been involved in numerous wars in the Middle East, invading Afghanistan for nearly a decade and desperately trying to keep Syria’s authoritarian leader, al-Assad, in power before his eventual downfall.
2/21
While initially supportive of Israel, the Soviet Union quickly pivoted to backing its enemies, fueling antisemitism, terrorism, and chaos in an already tense region. At times, this meant near-open war, like when Soviet Air Force MiG-21s were shot down by Israel over Egypt.
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce a Latvian politician and former MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka. She’s best-known for her history in the Communist Party of Latvia, for her pro-Russian politics in the country, and her connections to Russian intelligence.
1/22
Based on Ždanoka’s speeches and social media posts, she has a deep hatred towards the people of Latvia. The reason for this can only be speculated, but part of it could be due to her paternal family being killed by the Latvian Auxiliary Police,…
2/22
…a paramilitary force supported by the Nazis, during the early 1940s. Ždanoka became politically active in the late 80s. She was one of the leaders of Interfront, a political party that supported Latvia remaining part of the USSR.