Thread by @amaBhungane

[1/8] Electricity prices will rise by 18% this year even as Eskom plunges us into #Stage6loadshedding.

What’s going on? AmaBhungane’s @sajournalist explains why the crisis is likely to continue:

#Stage6loadshedding #Loadshedding

[2/8] In December, Eskom ran out of money to buy diesel for the open cycle gas turbines which provide electricity when demand surges in the evenings.

Although it felt like a bad month – with only 46 hours where we DIDN’T have #loadshedding – it could have been a lot worse.

[3/8] Here’s why: Eskom still had some diesel left in December. Added to this, PetroSA gave Eskom 50 million litres.

But December was a busy month, and between Eskom and the IPPs, we burned through roughly 100 million litres of diesel.

[4/8] By 6 January, things weren’t looking so peachy: Eskom had, by our calculations, around 34 million litres of diesel left.

As stage 6 #loadshedding hit, Eskom was forced to switch off the OCGTs.

[5/8] On Monday, Eskom confirmed that it has placed an order for another 50 million litres of diesel.

At the current burn rate, this would keep the Eskom OCGTs running for roughly three weeks.

#Stage6loadshedding

[6/8] The 18% increase in your electricity bills (granted by Nersa) means that Eskom will get money to buy diesel in April, but Treasury is still refusing to give Eskom more money for the current financial year.

And the outlook for #loadshedding isn’t looking good.

[7/8] Eskom was already predicting on average 28 days of up to stage 3 #loadshedding in January, February and March.

But that was assuming that Eskom could burn an improbable R21-billion (1 billion litres) of diesel.

[8/8] Eskom refuses to disclose what its projections look like if diesel is limited, but as a rough guide: no diesel = +2 stages of loadshedding.

Meaning current levels of #loadshedding could last until April, at least.

#Stage6loadshedding