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Jan 16 18 tweets 4 min read
1/ The identity of the Wagner commander at Soledar has been uncovered: he has been identified as a former soldier named Anton Olegovich Elizarov, who was convicted of fraud in 2014. Meanwhile, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin is reported to now be in a difficult position. ⬇️
2/ The Dossier Centre, an organisation founded by Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky to expose high-level Russian corruption, says it has identified the man who appeared with Prigozhin in a 14 January video (see thread below).
3/ In the video, Prigozhin doesn't name him but calls him an experienced fighter who took Soledar "without chewing snot in a fortnight".
4/ The Dossier Centre names him and says: "He was born in 1981 in Rostov region, graduated from Ulyanovsk Guards Suvorov Military School in 1998 and from Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School in 2003.
5/ "Elizarov served in the 108th regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division in Novorossiysk, where he commanded a platoon and a company. He was also a team leader in the 10th Separate Special Forces Brigade in Molkino.
6/ "During his service he took part in combat operations in the North Caucasus.

In 2014, Elizarov's military career was derailed. He was accused of fraud with a service apartment – Elizarov provided false documents during its privatisation.
7/ "The court sentenced him to three years of suspended imprisonment and a fine of 100,000 roubles [$1,454 at today's exchange rates]. Elizarov unsuccessfully sued the Ministry of Defence for the flat and was evicted in 2016.
8/ "Since at least 2016, Elizarov has been listed as a member of the Wagner, call sign Lotos, number M-0136. [Note - he was identified by his call sign of 'Lotos' in a recent post by the Wagner-linked Grey Zone Telegram channel.]
9/ "He fought in Syria, where he was wounded by shrapnel in his thigh in 2017, worked as a trainer in Central African Republic in 2018-2019, and commanded an assault unit in Libya in 2021.
10/ "In September 2022, Elizarov appeared with Prigozhin and the governor of the Volgograd region at the funeral of Wagnerite Alexei Nagin.
11/ "The video footage shows Elizarov wearing his awards - a Hero of the Russian Federation star and hero stars of the unrecognised Donesk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic."
12/ Meanwhile, while Elizarov's star appears to be rising, Prigozhin's appears to be falling somewhat in the aftermath of Soledar. A source tells the well-connected VChK-OGPU Telegram channel:
13/ "It has now become clear that Prigozhin's influence is absolutely not as huge as everyone (and he himself too) thought. After Soledar, everything went totally different from the plan he had hoped for. It seemed that Prigozhin was about to replace Gerasimov with his own man.
14/ "But everything turned against Prigozhin himself and [Wagner].

Losses are hell, which is generally predictable and understandable given the task at hand. They are trying to cheer up the fighters morally, this was not much practiced in private military companies before.
15/ "But on the whole it is sad, of course. With such an approach the storming of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will need more men than the 'Musicians' ever had at any one time.
16/ "A small observation - Wagner has come to be referred to internally as "the army" and the military uses the term "unit" [i.e. Wagner calls itself an 'army' while the actual Russian army calls Wagner a mere 'unit'].
17/ "It's hard to tell if this is just a war of words, or if it's some kind of innuendo". /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/dossiercenter/…
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/35965

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jan 18
1/ Recent reports have suggested that the Wagner Group has suffered huge casualties among the convicts it has mobilised from penal colonies across Russia. One small illustration of this, according to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel:
2/ "A source of VChK-OGPU said that out of 270 convicts of one of the Bashkir colonies recruited by the Wagner PMC, 30 people are still alive. "This figure quite accurately reflects the number of losses of convicts – just over 10 per cent survive," the source said."
3/ Meanwhile, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin has published a video showing him congratulating surviving convicts for enduring "blood, earth, shit and sugar" and completing their contracts and getting pardons. In the video, Prigozhin says:
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
1/ The Russian army is planning to deal more harshly with dissent and indiscipline from mobilised soldiers by establishing military prisons at bases where the mobilised are being trained and accommodated. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russia's Central Military District has instructed training units to establish detention facilities for personnel who are being disciplined. The move is in response to a request from State Duma deputy Maksim Ivanov, an ex-GRU member, who has taken a hard line on discipline.
3/ As the 7x7 Horizontal Russia Telegram channel reports, in December Ivanov wrote to the Central Military District demanding that it lock up "those mobilized military personnel who "sow discord or behave in an impertinent manner".
Read 16 tweets
Jan 16
1/ Mobilised Russians from Novosibirsk say they have been sent to the front line without food, winter clothing or enough boots, have to buy their own provisions and have been told that if they want weapons they must take them from the Ukrainians. ⬇️
2/ A few days ago, @wartranslated published the video below showing the men complaining about their conditions. Now the independent Russian media outlet Important Stories (iStories) has interviewed one of them.
3/ The unnamed soldier says that he and his comrades are living "like homeless people", barely surviving in terrible conditions on the front line under constant bombardment. Despite this, they are falsely listed as being stationed in the safer 'green zone' in a rear area.
Read 20 tweets
Jan 16
1/ There are increasing signs of an imminent second wave of mobilisation in Russia, according to independent Russian media. The independent outlet Verstka says there are "numerous indications that mobilisation may start at any moment". ⬇️
2/ According to Verstka, "military registration and enlistment offices continue to send out summonses, and in Moscow, a group of specialists who helped the Moscow mayor's office to handle cases of illegal drafts is on 'combat readiness'".
3/ Utility workers are reported to be preparing to deliver mobilisation notices and, according to a source, have been banned from taking holidays in January and February.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 15
1/ Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has posted a video, apparently filmed in or near Soledar, in which he praises the capabilities and skills of Wagner fighters, implicitly casting them as superior to the regular Russian military. Translation below. ⬇️
2/ "I came here to present medals to the guys who took Soledar. This is the man who commanded the capture of Soledar. He liberated it in two weeks. Soledar was clamped in a pincer, then divided into parts.
3/ "The enemy units were surrounded, those who refused to surrender were destroyed. All the bodies of Ukrainian servicemen will be handed over and sent to their homeland.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 14
1/ Over the past few months, Russia's local governments have been renovating old bomb shelters – even as far away as the border with north-east China – apparently to boost war fever. An entrepreneur has gone a step further by advertising a luxury "bunker hotel" outside Moscow. ⬇️
2/ Cold War-era bomb shelters have been reopened in localities from Belgorod on the Ukrainian border to Blagoveshchensk in the Russian Far East. In Moscow, shops and malls are being adapted to provide shelters with electricity and water for up to 15 million people.
3/ While some of this may be sensible – Ukraine has repeatedly attacked Belgorod and Moscow may theoretically be in range of new Ukrainian long-range missiles – it's likely that the Russian authorities want to instill in their population fear and a sense of being under attack.
Read 10 tweets

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