Andrew Kang Profile picture
Jan 16 19 tweets 9 min read
1/ 2022 Echo Bubble - Full thesis

A thread presenting evidence for a mid term bottom and oncoming "echo bubble" with thorough confluence from technical analysis, onchain data, and exchange/derivatives data
/2 From a TA perspective, we have just given every person that considers technicals in their trading/investing reason to start to look for long exposure. $BTC & $ETH have broken above diagonal trendlines & MAs, started weekly momentum crossovers, reclaimed important supports
3/ The most important indicator of an oncoming rally is the weekly RSI crossover from a previous very long period of bearish momentum implying large potential energy for a move higher based on a supply squeeze.

4/ This supply squeeze is shown by various onchain metrics from BTC and ETH on exchanges (fallen past pre-bull run levels) and reduction of sell pressure from miners
5/ A large driver of bearish momentum in 2022 was overlevered miners that turned into forced sellers - needing to sell their BTC rewards & also their stockpiles. The recent trend reversal in network hashrate show that after some major capitulations, miner health has stabilized
6/ Miners no longer have the luxury of the transaction fees of a bull market and this is reflective of the bottoming process of previous cycles
7/ The USD value of supply issuance relative to its 365MA (Puell Multiple) is also in bottom territory indicating that miners able to withstand this sharp cut to their top line are quite hardy
8/ Current overall holders can also be considered extremely hardy given the aggregate holderbase has suffered an extreme amount of drawdown, but as of recent are no longer underwater
9/ Even though aggregate holders are no longer underwater, they still hold a very large amount of stables relative to total crypto market cap which can serve as rocket fuel for a trending move up

FOs, Macro funds, SWFs, Retail, Whales,, crypto funds, etc are all potential buyers
10/ Historically, we’ve seen that the largest/longest rallies typically follow periods of low volatility. As in turns out, we are at historically low levels of volatility
11/ The current state of derivatives also allow space for a rally given leveraged longs have not yet come in to push the market up. Futures basis is trading near 0, similar to just before the last bull run
12/ It's clear crypto has seen a lack of interest from the general public for quite some time. Search volumes and exchange volumes have finally fallen to 2020 levels
13/ But the recent revival in NFT activity could be the right catalyst to draw interest back into the space. NFT activity has kickstarted onchain activity which fell to local lows as excitement starts to come back to this space
14/ The activity results in potentially an accelerating rate of $ETH burn which compounds the supply side effects of Ethereum’s switch from PoW to PoS
15/ “But what about macro”

last time SPX was at these levels in previous years was around April 2020. At that point, crypto was mid bull run and was trading at $2T market cap, almost 2x current crypto market cap. There is still plenty of liquidity for risk assets
16/ With Mt Gox release delayed to September, FTX having sold most customer assets, major players liquidated and many other assets tied up in bankruptcy proceedings, supply is significantly reduced
17/ Overall market positioning (very underallocated) sets up the foundation for a large multiweek to multi month echo bubble

Double bubble was meme’d into reality - why can’t echo bubble?
H/T @GCRClassic for popularizing the Echo Bubble concept for crypto
H/T @WClementeIII @glassnode @coinglass_com @woonomic for data
2023 echo bubble*

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More from @Rewkang

Jan 15
$BTC Weekly RSI is in the midst of crossing the 50 level signifying a long term momentum reversal from bear to bull

Complete weekly crosses have only happened 5 times since 2015 and each cross has led to a significant rally with an average gain of 1775% from cross to top
The only cross that didn't result in a >100% gain was from Jan 2020 but this rally was likely prematurely cut short by the covid market nuke black swan
The same phenomena exists for $ETH and the implication is that it is also ready for a large momentum reversal to the upside
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
Carvana $CVNA looks like prime candidate for short squeeze

- Down 98% from top
- 50%+ short interest
- Capitulatory candles and rounded bottom + recent reclaims
- Equities and retail flow coming back strong

If WSB gets ahold of this does it pull a $GME? @WSBChairman
Disclosure: Long $CVNA & $CVNA call options
Good intraday move so far

Looking like early stages of a monster squeeze
Read 7 tweets
Jan 12
Many alts showing good risk/reward set ups on technicals and narrative if we see continued bear market rally

Sharing notes below


- Shibarium L2 launch on the horizon
- $SHIB/$DOGE ratio creeping up from local bottom
- $SHIB USD failed to break rock solid 2021 and June lows
- Never had same massive short squeeze as $DOGE = powder keg ImageImage

- High APY of APE staking has locked up 25% of circulating supply
- Upcoming @OthersideMeta content can generate hype
- Blizzard President coming on as CEO for BAYC
- BAYC/MAYC NFTs have started trending up again
- Key coin for any NFT narratives

Read 5 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
Luxury goods founder becoming world's richest means that the excesses of the massive liquidity orgy we saw over the last decade has much further to unwind

The biggest winners become the biggest losers and generational longs are now generational shorts…
Overleveraged executives borrowing off of company stock resulted in massive forced selling in high growth stocks like $PTON earlier this year

$TSLA in danger of the same play out

What levels do Elon's margin calls start hitting? Image
Elon has sold $23B of TSLA

Large amount goes to covering taxes
$22B+ to twitter acquisition

Leverage still high from loans used to fund the acquisition. Dangerous for $TSLA and $DOGE until this headwind removed ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Dec 1, 2022
TP on nice move on our coins - longs risk momentum shift toward bottom of range. Risk factors:

- Top of range resistance
- Shorts squeezed
- Funding reversion
- Weak narratives for BTC & ETH
- Equities approaching large diagonal and horizontal resistance
- Pivot mostly priced
Lots of longs in profit from the last week and those with cash remaining are ultra conservative types that I don't think you can expect to chase. Think you can buy these coins lower again in the next 2 weeks
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22, 2022
First, he came for Mango, and I did not speak out, for I am not an investor

Then he came for USDT, and I did not speak out, for he did not pose a risk

Now, he tries to hunt the loan of one of the godfather's of DeFi and that's when the foot is put down to defend
Zues Capital
FTX MOB shorter

Different name, same game
Man is literally short 15% of the circulating supply in spot and who knows how much on derivs
Read 6 tweets

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