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Andrew Kang Profile picture
Andrew Kang
@Rewkang
Shephard @mechanismcap @PleasrDAO Not investment advice
54 subscribers
Oct 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It’s counterintuitive, but the best tokenomic design for a project (and retail) is to not have investor lock ups and have as much tokens to be as circulating as possible on Day 1 (except team, treasury)

One year cliff and 3-4 year vests are a poor standard that came about from a misunderstanding of capital markets and lazy copy pasting from prior projects

In reality, long vests have little impact on investor contribution post TGE. Good investors will be supportive whether tokens are vesting or not. Opposite for passive investors

The standard needs to changeImage I wrote about why low float high FDV was bad in 2021. Back then projects started to copy the Serum model of 1% circulating - I pushed that projects should have at very minimum 15-20% circulating on TGE. Now I believe even that is too low. The standard should be 65-75%+

Aug 11 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
No knowledge of anything actually happening but combination of the below leading me to bet that there’s some interesting developments upcoming for $SUI

1. Raoul pal shill thread while he sits on advisory board
2. Large OTC bids
3. Relatively strong holdership through big unlocks
4. Aggressive price action with no pullback
5. Big recent performance upgrade with Mysiceti potentially allowing for interesting new apps Many people commenting that they are giving grants to people to shill. If true, this is bullish
Mar 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This was pretty insane memecoin alpha from AVAX foundation

Whenever a big player says they are buying, it never fails to ignite momentum when market conditions are ok (CZ/Binance in March, early Saylor buys, etc). Suddenly, the technology improves

Don’t fight the fed Think you see this strategy replicated across all chains/foundations in the future, just as all of them launched DeFi incentive programs

It’s a very high ROI/probability way to increase onchain activity, bridging inflows, community members, etc
Dec 30, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
1/ The road ahead for Arbitrum ($ARB) - Mega thread

2021
- Arbitrum launch

2022
- Nitro upgrade for improved performance
- Arbitrum Odyssey introduced but paused
- Arbitrum Nova, a separate chain built for lost-cost transactions focused on gaming and social apps was launchedImage 2/ 2023 was the year of big launches and announcements

- Launched highly anticipated $ARB token, with 1.162B tokens distributed to ~580k wallets
- TVL doubled since the start of the year
- 4th highest TVL chain - more than Solana and Optimism combined
- Resuming Arbitrum Odyssey Image
Jun 7, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
The New King of Money Markets

The @RDNTCapital Thesis twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image 1/ At $5B and $2B TVL, Aave and Compound are currently the largest money markets in crypto

By innovating while others cruise, @RDNTCapital is the top competitor to challenge the throne and has the potential to become the new King of Money Markets in all of crypto
Feb 27, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Accumulated spot position in $STX last 2 weeks as well

As an investment, it hits the sweet spots of good supply schedule, strong marketability, cheap relative valuation, important catalysts ahead, proven bear market resistant builders Main catalyst is the Bitcoin Halving in a year and I think Hal's comparison to LDO & the merge is pretty apt

Second big catalyst would be potential catalysts for DeFi on Stacks - potentially catalzying a 9-10 figure DeFi ecosystem built around $BTC
Jan 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Every cycle, people need a good excuse to miss the bottom

in 2018, it was Tether FUD. This cycle, it's "bad macro"

Markets are forward-looking - equities can bottom almost a year before recession

For $BTC, its likely the worst is behind us

kitco.com/news/2018-12-2… Image Yes, the Macro situation is not inspiring (for the US), but after an 80% drawdown, it seems to be overly priced in

It would take an extreme catastrophe to create even worse sentiment

The negativity of 2022 was an opportunity to buy cheap $BTC - can you ask more from the market?
Jan 16, 2023 • 19 tweets • 9 min read
1/ 2022 Echo Bubble - Full thesis

A thread presenting evidence for a mid term bottom and oncoming "echo bubble" with thorough confluence from technical analysis, onchain data, and exchange/derivatives data /2 From a TA perspective, we have just given every person that considers technicals in their trading/investing reason to start to look for long exposure. $BTC & $ETH have broken above diagonal trendlines & MAs, started weekly momentum crossovers, reclaimed important supports
Jan 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC Weekly RSI is in the midst of crossing the 50 level signifying a long term momentum reversal from bear to bull

Complete weekly crosses have only happened 5 times since 2015 and each cross has led to a significant rally with an average gain of 1775% from cross to top The only cross that didn't result in a >100% gain was from Jan 2020 but this rally was likely prematurely cut short by the covid market nuke black swan
Jan 12, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Carvana $CVNA looks like prime candidate for short squeeze

- Down 98% from top
- 50%+ short interest
- Capitulatory candles and rounded bottom + recent reclaims
- Equities and retail flow coming back strong

If WSB gets ahold of this does it pull a $GME? @WSBChairman Disclosure: Long $CVNA & $CVNA call options
Jan 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Many alts showing good risk/reward set ups on technicals and narrative if we see continued bear market rally

Sharing notes below

$SHIB
$APE
$BCH
$FLOW $SHIB

- Shibarium L2 launch on the horizon
- $SHIB/$DOGE ratio creeping up from local bottom
- $SHIB USD failed to break rock solid 2021 and June lows
- Never had same massive short squeeze as $DOGE = powder keg ImageImage
Dec 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Luxury goods founder becoming world's richest means that the excesses of the massive liquidity orgy we saw over the last decade has much further to unwind

The biggest winners become the biggest losers and generational longs are now generational shorts

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Overleveraged executives borrowing off of company stock resulted in massive forced selling in high growth stocks like $PTON earlier this year

$TSLA in danger of the same play out

What levels do Elon's margin calls start hitting? Image
Dec 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
TP on nice move on our coins - longs risk momentum shift toward bottom of range. Risk factors:

- Top of range resistance
- Shorts squeezed
- Funding reversion
- Weak narratives for BTC & ETH
- Equities approaching large diagonal and horizontal resistance
- Pivot mostly priced Lots of longs in profit from the last week and those with cash remaining are ultra conservative types that I don't think you can expect to chase. Think you can buy these coins lower again in the next 2 weeks
Nov 22, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
First, he came for Mango, and I did not speak out, for I am not an investor

Then he came for USDT, and I did not speak out, for he did not pose a risk

Now, he tries to hunt the loan of one of the godfather's of DeFi and that's when the foot is put down to defend Zues Capital
ySqueeze
FTX MOB shorter

Different name, same game
Nov 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The best bull case for $BTC and $ETH is a delayed breakdown and range formation. Arguments for this are:

1. Liquidity taken at previous lows which create new support
2. Lower timeframe reduction in downward momentum on new lows
3. Slightly negative derivatives positioning Since market doesn’t have a lot of deriv longs to liquidate at these levels, it creates danger for confirmation based short traders that pile on late
Nov 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Vaporware is still trading at multi-billion dollar valuations and people still calling bottoms (like they have for past 10 months)

At the last market bottom @Arthur_0x @DegenSpartan and I were buying DeFi darlings at 7 fig vals and giant sell walls were $15k Right now there are still probably random retail sitting on 8 figures of $ADA or something
Nov 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Liquid crypto fund dynamics reinforce year end bearish flows

Last year, you had funds selling for bonuses, taxes and carry fees

This YE, you have funds selling because of redemptions and shutdowns

It's not over yet Ok maybe you survived Luna or 3ac nuke by having some cash on hand. Only down 60-70%? Can still find a way to operate and have hope to crawl out of the hole

But in the last month, if you got hit hard by FTX or have been overweight shitcoins then at 80-90% down its pretty dire
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Softbank's hedge fund was one of the whales that got carried out on tech stocks the last few months It would be unfortunate if they were exit liquidity for SPAC flippers
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Ramifications of FTX insolvency are immeasurable

Supposedly trying to raise $6B bailout

Might leave $0.30 to $1.00 on the dollar depending on any deal and funds locked for weeks to months How many counterparties did 3AC have?

FTX & Alameda had 1000x as many customers

Going to create holes in the pockets for individuals, funds, lenders, etc

Who now need to sell assets to pay expenses, salaries, rebalance inventory, reduce risk, etc
Nov 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ SoLunAvax is done

A new king will take the throne

$MATIC Thesis 2/

- Strongest BD team in the game
- Weekly RSI signaling bullish pattern which previously produced 100x
- Meta, Instagram integrations/partnerships
- zkEVM developments carry it forward with zk narrative
- Reddit avatar NFT usage on polygon
Oct 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Remaining comfy in shorts 🩳 ImageImage Will cover when Vitalik shows us his size again