Prizepicks, Underdog ...
Parlay only sportsbooks. Heroin ...
On PrizePicks, you should (almost) *exclusively* go with 5 pick flex plays.
On Underdog, you should go with 3 leg parlays.
Here's why...
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will take me a bit of time to write this one
Parlay only sportsbooks. Heroin ...
On PrizePicks, you should (almost) *exclusively* go with 5 pick flex plays.
On Underdog, you should go with 3 leg parlays.
Here's why...
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will take me a bit of time to write this one
PrizePicks & Underdog both offer 3x payouts on 2 pick entries.
You're betting $10 for a $30 payout, $20 for a $60 payout.
That is NOT +300 odds ... That's +200 odds.
You're wagering $10 to win $20 in profit (plus your $10 stake back, so the total payout is $30).
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You're betting $10 for a $30 payout, $20 for a $60 payout.
That is NOT +300 odds ... That's +200 odds.
You're wagering $10 to win $20 in profit (plus your $10 stake back, so the total payout is $30).
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Books showing payout (& profit) is sketchy IMO
PrizePicks/Underdog do this to confuse bettors & make you feel like you're winning more than you actually are.
"You just won $30!"
No... You won $20...
But that's besides the point
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PrizePicks/Underdog do this to confuse bettors & make you feel like you're winning more than you actually are.
"You just won $30!"
No... You won $20...
But that's besides the point
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In general, Underdog/PrizePicks do NOT vary payouts based on the picks you select.
There are no actual "odds" ... Whatever two picks you select, you're getting +200 odds. Combine NFL with an NBA play? It's +200 odds.
So every two leg parlay comes out to +200
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There are no actual "odds" ... Whatever two picks you select, you're getting +200 odds. Combine NFL with an NBA play? It's +200 odds.
So every two leg parlay comes out to +200
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So... this means that PrizePicks is charging -137 odds or "juice" on 2 pick power plays.
Create a 2 leg parlay on sportsbook where both legs are around -137. It'll always come out to +200.
Look at the parlay calculator: oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…
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Create a 2 leg parlay on sportsbook where both legs are around -137. It'll always come out to +200.
Look at the parlay calculator: oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…
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So -137 is the "implied" odds on PrizePicks & Underdog for 2 pick entries.
In other words, when you're betting 2 pick entries on PrizePicks, you should assume you're betting $137 to win $100 in profit for each pick.
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In other words, when you're betting 2 pick entries on PrizePicks, you should assume you're betting $137 to win $100 in profit for each pick.
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Imagine adding Ayton o2.5 Assists into a 2 pick entry on PrizePicks...
That's the biggest rip off of all the time...
You just bet him @ -137 odds to go o2.5 Assists
Pinnacle is offer +128 odds. That's 65 cents better.
You're gonna go broke if you're doing that...
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That's the biggest rip off of all the time...
You just bet him @ -137 odds to go o2.5 Assists
Pinnacle is offer +128 odds. That's 65 cents better.
You're gonna go broke if you're doing that...
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Side note...
just think about how much juice PrizePicks is charging ...
they hide it all by not having "odds" on their parlay only sportsbook.
Most sportsbooks have -110/-110 juice (look below)
PrizePicks is -137/-137 for 2 pick entries. They are *ripping* off sports bettors.
just think about how much juice PrizePicks is charging ...
they hide it all by not having "odds" on their parlay only sportsbook.
Most sportsbooks have -110/-110 juice (look below)
PrizePicks is -137/-137 for 2 pick entries. They are *ripping* off sports bettors.
Granted... PrizePick's way of ripping off sports bettors also works against them ...
Unlike sportsbooks, PrizePicks does NOT have the ability to change "odds" or "price" - every pick in a 2 leg parlay has "-137" odds.
That's why them & Underdog are so exploitable
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Unlike sportsbooks, PrizePicks does NOT have the ability to change "odds" or "price" - every pick in a 2 leg parlay has "-137" odds.
That's why them & Underdog are so exploitable
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You just find spots where the books have an over or under heavily favored, and you know exactly what PrizePicks will be charging.
If books all have a player prop (e.g. Lebron o8.5 Rebounds) at -190 odds, then it's solid in a PrizePicks entry...
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If books all have a player prop (e.g. Lebron o8.5 Rebounds) at -190 odds, then it's solid in a PrizePicks entry...
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PrizePicks/Underdog are identical for 2 pick entries (fucking rip offs...), but they start to differ for 3 pick entries
PrizePicks has 5x payouts for 3 pick entries. That's +400 odds...
Underdog has 6x payouts for 3 pick entries (e.g. +500 odds).
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PrizePicks has 5x payouts for 3 pick entries. That's +400 odds...
Underdog has 6x payouts for 3 pick entries (e.g. +500 odds).
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Using a parlay calculator, you can see the implied odds for 3 pick entries.
PrizePicks: -141 (picture #1)
Underdog: -122
PrizePicks offers a HORRIBLE price for 3 pick'ers. -141/-141 juice is INSANE ...
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PrizePicks: -141 (picture #1)
Underdog: -122
PrizePicks offers a HORRIBLE price for 3 pick'ers. -141/-141 juice is INSANE ...
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Of course, PrizePicks doesn't tell you this & makes it confusing. That's their business. Making this confusing to new bettors & ripping them off...
You're at WAR ...
Now, before move onto Flex Play entries, let's just go through what's optimal for Power Plays only ...
(cont)
You're at WAR ...
Now, before move onto Flex Play entries, let's just go through what's optimal for Power Plays only ...
(cont)
Underdog is...
2 pick: -137 odds
3 pick: -122
4 pick: -128
5 pick: -122
PrizePicks power play is...
2 pick: -137 odds
3 pick: -141
4 pick: -128
That's why all my Underdog slips are 3 pick or sometimes 5 pick. It will NEVER make sense to create a 4 pick on Underdog...
2 pick: -137 odds
3 pick: -122
4 pick: -128
5 pick: -122
PrizePicks power play is...
2 pick: -137 odds
3 pick: -141
4 pick: -128
That's why all my Underdog slips are 3 pick or sometimes 5 pick. It will NEVER make sense to create a 4 pick on Underdog...
Similarly, the only rational reason to place a 2 leg parlay on PrizePicks is a lack of profitable bets.
If you can find two plays that are profitable @ -137 odds, then, sure, your 2 pick entry can be profitable.
But can't you find four plays that are profitable @ -128?
(con't)
If you can find two plays that are profitable @ -137 odds, then, sure, your 2 pick entry can be profitable.
But can't you find four plays that are profitable @ -128?
(con't)
And please never, never, never place a 3 pick entry on PrizePicks.
Don't give these rip off fucking books your money ...
These schemers will *scheme* every last dollar out of you with confusing odds & payouts, and they aim to keep the industry very, very dumb ...
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Don't give these rip off fucking books your money ...
These schemers will *scheme* every last dollar out of you with confusing odds & payouts, and they aim to keep the industry very, very dumb ...
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Before going to Flex Plays ...
Obviously, 2 pick'ers hit "more often" than 4 pick'ers.
But win rate is *irrelevant* ...
If you want to "win" more frequently, go to a sportsbook and bet -900 favorites. You'll win most of the time ... But you're not winning a lot of money.
Obviously, 2 pick'ers hit "more often" than 4 pick'ers.
But win rate is *irrelevant* ...
If you want to "win" more frequently, go to a sportsbook and bet -900 favorites. You'll win most of the time ... But you're not winning a lot of money.
You should NOT bet or listen to those placing 2 pick'ers on Underdog (UD) ... it's crazy
People just like to "win" more frequently.
But when you win a 2 pick on UD, you're up just $200 (assuming you bet $100).
for a 3 pick, you're up $500 ...
You don't need to win as often.
People just like to "win" more frequently.
But when you win a 2 pick on UD, you're up just $200 (assuming you bet $100).
for a 3 pick, you're up $500 ...
You don't need to win as often.
Onto PrizePicks flex plays ...
Here, your payout changes depending on the # of bets you win
5/5: +900 odds
4/5: +100 odds
3/5: You lose 60%
Again, PrizePicks makes their payouts confusing... If you go 3/5 & staked $100, you're down $60. You didn't just "win" $40...
(cont)
Here, your payout changes depending on the # of bets you win
5/5: +900 odds
4/5: +100 odds
3/5: You lose 60%
Again, PrizePicks makes their payouts confusing... If you go 3/5 & staked $100, you're down $60. You didn't just "win" $40...
(cont)
Now, this isn't as straight forward as parlay math since a Flex Play is not a parlay...
But you can use the binomial distribution to back out your break even %, which turns out to be roughly 54.4% for a 5 flex
54.4% breakeven win % = about -119 odds
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
But you can use the binomial distribution to back out your break even %, which turns out to be roughly 54.4% for a 5 flex
54.4% breakeven win % = about -119 odds
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
So, for 5 flex plays, you just need to find value @ -119...
Niederreiter u2.5 SOG is profitable (e.g. Positive EV) in a 5 flex. All books have this around -145, so -119 is solid
But I'd never use it in a 3 pick power play (-141). Why would I? I can get -134 odds on the books ..
Niederreiter u2.5 SOG is profitable (e.g. Positive EV) in a 5 flex. All books have this around -145, so -119 is solid
But I'd never use it in a 3 pick power play (-141). Why would I? I can get -134 odds on the books ..
Finally, there's 6 pick flex plays.
Almost to identical in terms of the odds for 5 flex's, you're getting roughly -119 implied odds
So it doesn't really matter if you place 5 or 6 pick flex plays. It's like 3 vs 5 pick on UD
6 flex math / sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Almost to identical in terms of the odds for 5 flex's, you're getting roughly -119 implied odds
So it doesn't really matter if you place 5 or 6 pick flex plays. It's like 3 vs 5 pick on UD
6 flex math / sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
will drop this here...
Underdog insurance math:
Underdog insurance math:
https://twitter.com/AlexMonahan100/status/1615742176754909185
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