Arbitrage betting is simple. You're placing 2 bets on 2 different books to guarantee a risk-free profit. This is possible b/c all books set their own odds, and sometimes they get SUPER out of sync.
Here's an example from TheArbFather, a sharp/pro bettor. Caesars/DraftKings were SUPER out of sync on their 1Q totals. He played the over @ -120 on Caesars & got the under @ +140 on DraftKings.
You can see in his breakdown that REGARDLESS of if the quarter went over or under 61.5 points, he was profiting. Either $20 or $25. That's ALL that arbitrage betting is. You're day trading inefficiencies in the betting market, which is possible because all books set their own odds.
Dec 10, 2024 • 7 tweets • 7 min read
I'm up $198,000 this year betting on parlays
Betting on parlays is a science, NOT an art... Proven strategies make money - it's that simple.
Profitable parlay betting strategy explained (math) 👇🧵
Full tutorial breaking down the math behind parlays & profitable parlay betting strategy: youtu.be/fxF48qjJV6c?si… - DM me questions anytime, highly recommend watching 🫡
A parlay is just a combination of bets... People overcomplicate this. 1) If you lose money betting on straight bets, then you'll lose money betting on parlays 2) If you MAKE money betting on straight bets, then you'll make money betting on straight bets.
Let's say you have a +5% ROI on your straight bets: 1) On 2 pick parlays, you will have an ROI of ~+10%. Your edge compounds. 2) For 3 pick parlays, you'll have an ROI of ~+15%. Again, your edge compounds.
etc.
All my bets are tracked on verified bet tracker @Pikkitsports. You can see I have an 18% ROI on my parlays & 5% ROI on straight bets. That's normal - this will be the case for any sharp, profitable bettor
Continue 🧵👇
Nov 16, 2024 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Sports betting is a LONG-TERM game 🗣️🗣️
From down $17k this month to up $24k. Trust the process of sharp, data-driven strategies like Positive EV & middle betting.
Here's 10 resources I HIGHLY recommend if you want to make money sports betting 🧵👇1) Middle Betting Tutorial Video: youtu.be/k-yEUY7wlT8
Middling is a SHARP betting strategy. You're capitalizing on inefficiencies in the betting market, which is possible because EVERY sportsbook sets their own lines.
I gave out this play on Twitter... 1) FanDuel had DJ U's line @ 192.5, I bet the over 2) Fliff had his line @ 209.5, I bet the under
A 17 yard gap. If he had 193 to 209 yards, then I'd win both bets, which is EXACTLY what happened...
Nov 14, 2024 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
This is my 2024 sports betting profit & loss by LEAGUE
If you want to make serious profits, then you NEED to be betting on every sport... Here's why 🧵👇
My bets are given out on Twitter (notifications ON) & live stream: twitch.tv/alexmonahan100
We want to use multiple sportsbooks as sharp, profitable bettors. All books set their own "prices" (e.g. odds & lines), so the betting market is extremely fragmented/inefficient. We never know which book is going to have the best value (e.g. Positive EV, arbitrage, middle bets) on a given day. Sometimes, DraftKings has a ton of value. Other days, it's BetMGM & Fliff.
For the exact same reason, we want to bet on MULTIPLE sports. More sports = more surface area for the sportsbooks to cover = more opportunities for books to "slip up" & offer value.
Sometimes, there's a TON of NBA value. Other days, I find really profitable (e.g. Positive EV) bets in hockey. It depends. Sports betting is about getting an "edge" and data, not a specific sport.
My 2022/2023 results from verified public bet tracker @pikkitsports are in the 2 pictures. Some years, more of my profit comes from NBA betting. Other years, it's NFL. That's just variance.
Nov 7, 2024 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
“My intent is just making money. I have absolutely no political agenda"
Here's the story of how an anonymous French dude made $50 million betting on the election. 🧵👇 1) Markets reflect information
There seems to be a HUGE amount of people who think the only people betting on the election are uninformed degenerates, which is 100% false.
The French dude who moved the market towards Trump & made $50mln used an alternate polling method because he thought "mainstream" polling data was inaccurate. He was an expert in markets & math.
Unless you're willing to lose tens of millions of dollars to prove a point, you can't "manipulate" betting market data.
His predictions were DIALED - Trump winning 6/7 battleground states & winning the popular vote. These are the people using betting markets for REAL amounts of money & moving lines. Markets express truth.
Oct 11, 2024 • 7 tweets • 8 min read
Five simple formulas you NEED to understand to make money sports betting
I'm up $222,000 this year & it's ALL because I know these... 👇🧵
My bets are given out free on Twitter (notifications ON) & Twitch: twitch.tv/alexmonahan100
Sportsbooks are "market makers" - they make money by charging a spread called the vig (or 'juice'). The way a sportsbook works is: 1) They have models that spit out the "fair" price for a bet with no juice/vig (say -135 Dodgers, +135 Padres) 2) Then, they juice their markets. A book will offer -145 Dodgers, +125 Padres. A sportsbook just gives you WORSE odds than they believe are "fair."
A fair odds calculator just removes the juice/vig: oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…. For example, Pinnacle (the sharpest book) has their market +129/-140. That means they believe the Dodgers are "fair" @ -134 odds, Padres +134 odds. If you could bet the Padres @ +134 or better (e.g. +145) or the Dodgers @ -134 or better (e.g. -120), then your bet would "beat" fair value & be +EV.
If all the sharp/profitable customers start betting on the Dodgers, then a book will adjust their "fair odds" & re-juice their markets. For example, maybe they'll move the "fair" line to -150 Dodgers, +150 Padres. They'll then offer +140 Padres, -160 Dodgers to bettors (a 20 cent spread)
Profitable sports betting is ALL about finding bets above fair value.
Sep 30, 2024 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
I've profited over $215,000 betting on sports this year
There's SO much bullshit info, so I'm gonna clarify what you NEED to understand...
Here's 5 *critical* things if you want to make money sports betting 👇🧵1) Win Loss Record Doesn't Matter (Odds to Win Probability)
Win loss record is irrelevant. People love to brag about winning "60%" of their bets. Who cares. If you go 6/10 betting @ -300 odds, you're LOSING money. All that matters is making money...
Betr is a parlay only sportsbook. I made this tutorial video on it: .
I'm up over $70k on Betr this year. I've won 126 bets, lost 618. That's a win rate of 17%. But my ROI (which is all that matters) is +99%.
Win rate is completely irrelevant.
Sep 26, 2024 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
$74,000 PROFIT sports betting this month
Basically every play given out free, yet I still get 1000's of DMs asking how I do what I do...
ANYBODY can win this much. Just work ethic. There's no participation trophies.
Here's the 11 BEST resources to *actually* make money 🧵👇1) Parlays:
You absolutely can make money betting on parlays. Edge compounds. My parlay ROI is higher than my straight bet ROI.
That's expected. If your ROI is 3% on straights, on 2 pick parlays it will be about 6%. If you lose money on straights, then you'll get KILLED on parlays.
It's simple. Most people SUCK at sports betting & don't make money on straights, so they get DESTROYED on parlays. For sharp bettors, parlay ROI is always highest.
Sep 24, 2024 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
I'm up over $70,000 profit sports betting this month, all thanks to football.
ANYBODY can get these results during football season, so everybody should be gambling right now...
Here's 3 strategies that will make you the MOST money this NFL season👇🧵
#1) Value Bets (+EV, Positive EV Betting)
This is a must-watch tutorial on Positive EV, the math behind it & why it's so profitable: . DM me questions anytime, happy to help 🫡
About 85% of my results are from Positive EV betting. It's higher variance. Some days, I lose $5k. Some days, I win $10k.
Positive EV involves using market data (e.g. sportsbook odds) to identify profitable wagers. All sportsbooks set their own "prices" (e.g. odds/lines), and that's why there's so much opportunity to make money with Positive EV.
Here, Fliff was "stale" with Douglas's over @ -130 odds. Every other book ripped his over to being a much bigger favorite around -160. That's raw data, information given to us from the market.
The same way a stock prices signifies company valuation, odds signify win probability. Sportsbooks odds = information that needs to be valued & understood: 1) -200 = 2:1 favorite = 2/3 to win (66.7%) 2) -300 = 3:1 favorite = 3/4 to win (75%) 3) +300 underdog = 3:1 underdog = 1/4 to win (25%)
I gave this play out for free on Twitter
Sep 16, 2024 • 5 tweets • 7 min read
I profited over $38,000 today betting on the NFL.
EVERYBODY should be NFL betting. If you're not, you hate money.
Here's the bets I placed & strategies I used to make $38,000 👇🧵
#1: Middle Betting
All the strategies I use are data-driven, profitable strategies that PRINT profits. I don't bet with my "gut" or emotions. 99% of sports bettors do that, and that's why the books are in business. Invest in your betting education, read this WHOLE thread & you'll make a lot of money. DM me any questions anytime 🫡
Middle betting is when 2 books have their lines WAY out sync. I found this INSANE play that I gave out free on Twitter with the @OddsJam Middle Betting Tool here:
FanDuel opened DJ's line @ 192.5 passing yards. Another book, Fliff, had him @ 209.5. That's a huge discrepancy. Buy low, sell high. I bet the over 192.5 on FanDuel, the under 209.5 on Fliff. He had exactly 201 passing yards so I won both bets.
Here's the link to my Tweet sharing this play with everybody: . Basically ALL my picks are given out free on Twitter or Twitch stream
Here's a good tutorial on middle betting from YouTube: . Definitely worth watching, DM me any questionsoddsjam.com/betting-tools/…
WRONG. I'm up over $107,000 this year betting parlays
Only people who don't understand how odds work say stupid shit like "Parlays are unprofitable"
Here's WHY parlays can be incredibly lucrative & the math behind them 👇🧵
"Why would you ever bet on parlays? Why don't you just play straight bets?"
1) Some of the most popular & lucrative sportsbooks in the country are "parlay only." That's just how it is.
Take Betr, the easiest book to make money on (I'm up over $71,000 this year). I have one play selected - Valdez Over 24.5 - and Betr says "Select at least one player from 2 different teams to place your entry.”
Unless you plan on NOT using some of the most lucrative sportsbooks in the country, you're going to have to place parlays. Here's a tutorial on how to maximize profit margin on Betr & other parlay only sportsbooks:
2) A lot of sportsbook promos are parlay only. Some of these promos are very lucrative. For example, FanDuel has a "No Sweat" parlay for tonight. If you lose your bet, you get your money back. Obviously you want to take advantage of this promo... There's 0 downside
Sep 9, 2024 • 7 tweets • 9 min read
I profited over $41,000 last year betting on the NFL
Everybody should be gambling because anybody can do this...
Here's the 5 strategies that will make you the MOST money this season🧵
Strategy #1: Arbitrage Betting (Risk-Free Profits)
Tons of good accounts to follow for this strategy: @TheArbFather, @brian_stephens_, @tsitjames & countless others.
Arbitrage is a way to *gaurantee* a profit when 2 sportsbooks get super out of sync. It's possible because ALL books set their own odds.
Here's an example from this weekend on Gus Edwards TDs. Fliff & DraftKings were SO out of sync that you could bet the over on DraftKings (Edwards to score), the under on Fliff (Edwards to NOT score) & earn a risk-free profit. You're day trading the sportsbooks to make guaranteed returns, sitting at home in your boxers
This wasn't a "big" arbitrage play, but it takes literally 20 seconds to place a few bets & lock in a risk-free profit of $5. It adds up quick. The opportunities are much more lucrative live (during games).
Here's a tutorial video on arbitrage betting that I recommend watching: . Out of the MILLIONS of odds/lines across sportsbooks, only a *handful* of bets are mispriced enough to guarantee a risk-free return (e.g. arbitrage), which is why the @OddsJam Arbitrage Tool is so valuable. These opportunities move pretty fast, so you also need to be quick navigating the sportsbooks.
Got a lot of DMs asking "how" I knew these picks were good. No, I didn't just pick 2 random dudes to go yard...
It was all MATH. That's the only way you win long-term... There's no "luck"
Quick thread showing WHY it was so profitable (e.g. Positive EV) 🧵
Here's a YouTube tutorial/strategy video I made on this book (Betr): . DM me questions anytime. Want you to crush them 💪
Anyways, on Betr, any 2 "boosted" picks pays out 10x ($100 to win $1,000). That's just how their website works. Doesn't matter what 2 boosted picks you select. That means each individual leg is about +215 odds. Create any 2 pick parlay on a sportsbook where both picks are +215 odds. That parlay comes out to a 10x payout (+900 odds).
So you should think about it as - every individual boosted pick (e.g. Ohtani Home Run) is +215 odds.
May 10, 2024 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
if you're only using one sportsbook, you should QUIT gambling
You (no offense) have 0 clue what you're doing...
I use over 50 sportsbooks. Gambling apps are my entire iPhone...
Here's 5 reasons why you HAVE to be using multiple books if you want to *make money* sports betting 👇1) All books have different 'prices' (e.g. odds). The betting market is very inefficient.
Simple example - let's say you want to bet Lehkonen to Score a Point. The exact same bet has a VASTLY different price (e.g. odds) on various books: 1) FanDuel: -122 odds (bet $122 to win $100) 2) BetMGM: -145 odds (bet $145 to win $100) 3) Fliff: -160 odds (bet $160 to win $100)
etc.
Of course, you'd want to bet this on FanDuel since they have the best price. If you could buy a stock @ $122 or $160, you'd buy it on the platform offering you $122. The price is WAY different (26%). You'd be insane & get crushed day trading buying a stock at a 26% worse price relative to the market.
I had roughly a 10% ROI in 2023, making over $170,000 profit. If I was getting shitty odds that were 26% worse, I would've lost 16% (roughly $250,000). Nobody wins every bet. This makes a HUGE difference long-term...
You need to be getting the best possible price on all of your wagers. It quite literally can turn you from being an unprofitable bettor losing tens of thousands of dollars to being a profitable, sharp bettor making tens of thousands of dollars.
Why does this happen in sports betting? All sportsbooks want to be unique, so they all set their own prices. If every book had the same odds, we wouldn't need hundreds... FanDuel does NOT want to have the same odds as DraftKings
Even both are "markets," the sports betting market is very different from, say, the stock market, which is an efficient market (e.g. the price you see for a stock on Robinhood is the same as the price you'll see on Fidelity).
Apr 14, 2024 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
Everything you need to know to make money sports betting
A thread 🧵
1) You want to use as many sportsbooks as possible
Every sportsbook wants to be unique, so they all set their own odds. If DraftKings/FanDuel had the exact same odds, we wouldn't need both books to exist... That means the betting market is extremely fragmented/inefficient, which is why there's a lot of opportunity.
These are (I guess) technically the same bet - both will "win" if Stone has 6 or more strikeouts - but the price is completely different. It's like buying a stock @ $105 vs $154. 1) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +105 on Fliff (betting $100 to profit $105) 2) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +154 on FanDuel (betting $100 to profit $154)
Whenever I place a bet, I always make sure to get the best possible price. If you're hitting bets @ +105 odds when other books are offering +154, then you know you're getting ripped off.
Jan 16, 2023 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
Prizepicks, Underdog ...
Parlay only sportsbooks. Heroin ...
On PrizePicks, you should (almost) *exclusively* go with 5 pick flex plays.
On Underdog, you should go with 3 leg parlays.
Here's why...
(continue)
will take me a bit of time to write this one
PrizePicks & Underdog both offer 3x payouts on 2 pick entries.
You're betting $10 for a $30 payout, $20 for a $60 payout.
That is NOT +300 odds ... That's +200 odds.
You're wagering $10 to win $20 in profit (plus your $10 stake back, so the total payout is $30).
(continue)
Jan 16, 2023 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
Parlays ... 🎯
Lots of people say that parlays can't be profitable long-term.
That's just false ...
Parlays *can* be profitable. In fact, for sharps, parlays are *more* profitable than straight bets in terms of ROI...
Let's go through the logic, math, strategy...
(continue)
Let's start with an example.
Any parlay where both legs are -110 will be +264
Books don't "invent" ways to calculate parlay odds. It's always the same way.
Two legs @ -110 = +264 odds.
So.. You are wagering $100 to profit $264, and both bets need to win for the parlay to win
1) It takes *emotions* out of betting. 2) It's all about real-time "price" data (e.g. odds). Sportsbooks set & manage lines independently. Use them against each other ...