Sports Betting vs Stocks: Which is more profitable?

I've done both, and here's you answer 👇
All my sports bets are given out on social media for FREE (X/stream) or in the @SEVADiscord here: discord.gg/9mPEzUphvn

I started my career as a quant trader @ Morgan Stanley then SIG, and there's a lot of similarities between stocks & sports betting...

Similarity #1: Market-driven prices
Both the sports betting market and the stock market operate based on real time data. As people buy or sell a stock, or bet on a team to win or lose, the price moves. In sports betting, this is called line movement

You can see a line movement chart for the Mavs v Grizzlies game tonight from @OddsJam - odds have slightly moved towards the Mavs since the market opened. The market is implying the Mavs are "less big" underdogs.

Sportsbooks adjust odds/tick them around ALL the time for a variety of reasons:
1) "Flow" or betting volume, especially from sharp/profitable customers.

If all the sharp/profitable customers on FanDuel start betting on Klay Thompson to score over 14.5 points @ +100 odds, then FanDuel will adjust the odds and/or move the line.

FanDuel is getting information through betting volume that sharps/profitable customers think Klay is a "buy" @ 14.5. Maybe they move Klay's line from 14.5 to 15.5 or even 16.5. Or, maybe they move the odds on the over from +100 to -130. Odds aren't static.

2) Injuries/lineup changes.
Sportsbooks aren't stupid. Lineup news, injuries, weather, etc. is ALL factored into the odds they're putting out. FanDuel is a $40 billion dollar company - they know who's playing, etc.

Continue 👇👇

If you're already a profitable sports bettor, here's the 5 easiest ways to INCREASE your profits🧵👇

I do ALL of these. My results follow... Tip #1: Sign up for ALL sportsbooks in your location. Here's a FULL tutorial on ALL books I've used & which ones are most exploitable/profitable: youtu.be/DOFa220VZcU

I've used ~75 sportsbooks since I started sports betting seriously in 2018. I would NOT be able to get my results with only a couple books. All books set their own odds, so more books = more profitable bets = more profit in your pocket.

Sometimes, FanDuel/DraftKings have the best value. Other days, it's PrizePicks/Betr.

ALL of these books run lucrative sign-up bonuses as well. When I signed for DraftKings, they have a $1,000 deposit match. Literally free money.

This tutorial video breaks down how there's OVER $18,000 in sign-up bonus value across the country: youtu.be/F5KRaIBTt7w?si… - DM me any questions

Why Risk-Free Profit Arbitrage Betting is Possible 💰

People see someone making ~$900/day for 30 days straight and think they are lying or photoshopping. They are not.

Here is a thread explaining 1) why it's possible 2) how you can do it yourself. It's not hard to do🧵👇 I made a FULL tutorial on risk-free profit arbitrage betting here: youtu.be/idwt5TFMgoY. It's well worth watching if you want to make risk-free profits off the sportsbooks. DM me any questions about it!

1) What is risk-free profit arbitrage betting? Why is it possible?

There are 200+ sportsbooks that have launched in the U.S., and they ALL set their own 'prices' (e.g. odds).

Arbitrage is simply when 2 books have SUCH different prices that you can "hedge" to guarantee a profit. It's not really even "gambling" - you're day trading the sportsbooks to lock in risk-free returns.

You're always betting equal & opposite outcomes on 2 different books. Here, you can see I made $127 risk-free in this arbitrage play between ProphetX & NoVig, two betting exchanges.

I bet Florida -9.5 on ProphetX, UConn +9.5 on NoVig and was fully hedged. As you can see, after the game, one bet WON & one bet LOST, but I ended up $127 in profit.

Not all sportsbooks are created equal...

Last year, I used 50+ online sports gambling platforms. Here are the 5 main "types" you should know about🧵👇 1) Sweepstakes Books (Fliff, Rebet, Sportzino = main 3 I use). Tutorial on sweepstakes books here: youtu.be/prnDKMq0VIg?si…

Sweepstakes books are available in basically EVERY state (Texas, etc). They're also VERY exploitable...

As seen on the @pikkitsports verified bet tracker, Fliff was my BEST book in 2024 in terms of net profit. This year in 2025, Rebet is my best book (so far).

What's BEST about Fliff/Rebet is they're available in nearly ALL states, so you probably have access to them. Both books have "deposit match" sign-up bonuses, too.

Last year, a lot of my gambling profit came from DFS (fantasy sports)

I use 4 DFS platforms: PrizePicks, Underdog, Dabble & Betr

Here's EVERYTHING you need to know to make money on DFS apps like PrizePicks 👇 Btw... Here's a FULL tutorial breaking down EVERYTHING in more detail: youtu.be/jQldkP4NSj4 - DM me questions anytime 🫡

So WHY use multiple DFS apps? Two reasons...

1) They have different lines from one another

Betr has TJ's line @ 7.5 points. PrizePicks is @ 8.5. Obviously, if you want to play TJ's over, you should run your slip on Betr. Finding value IN the market (e.g. between apps) is the FIRST step to being profitable. If you're playing over 8.5 on PrizePicks when Betr has the line @ 7.5, you'll never be profitable...

2) Limits

I destroyed Betr last year. Now, I'm limited to $100 MAX per day. It sucks, but it is what it is... Using multiple books is the only way to keep my profits going up.

What's the best side hustle for 2025? 🤔

Great question. It's arbitrage sports betting, a hidden gem.

Arbitrage is a strategy pro/sharp bettors use to make risk-free profits. It's easy to do - anybody can use arbitrage to make money.

Here's how it works 👇🧵 What is Arbitrage Betting? FULL tutorial for beginners (step by step guide): youtu.be/lRD3OV42HDs - DM me any questions!

x.com/TheArbFather/s…

Arbitrage betting is simple. You're placing 2 bets on 2 different books to guarantee a risk-free profit. This is possible b/c all books set their own odds, and sometimes they get SUPER out of sync.

Here's an example from TheArbFather, a sharp/pro bettor. Caesars/DraftKings were SUPER out of sync on their 1Q totals. He played the over @ -120 on Caesars & got the under @ +140 on DraftKings.

You can see in his breakdown that REGARDLESS of if the quarter went over or under 61.5 points, he was profiting. Either $20 or $25. That's ALL that arbitrage betting is. You're day trading inefficiencies in the betting market, which is possible because all books set their own odds.

I'm up $198,000 this year betting on parlays

Betting on parlays is a science, NOT an art... Proven strategies make money - it's that simple.

Profitable parlay betting strategy explained (math) 👇🧵 Full tutorial breaking down the math behind parlays & profitable parlay betting strategy: youtu.be/fxF48qjJV6c?si… - DM me questions anytime, highly recommend watching 🫡

A parlay is just a combination of bets... People overcomplicate this.
1) If you lose money betting on straight bets, then you'll lose money betting on parlays
2) If you MAKE money betting on straight bets, then you'll make money betting on straight bets.

Let's say you have a +5% ROI on your straight bets:
1) On 2 pick parlays, you will have an ROI of ~+10%. Your edge compounds.
2) For 3 pick parlays, you'll have an ROI of ~+15%. Again, your edge compounds.
etc.

All my bets are tracked on verified bet tracker @Pikkitsports. You can see I have an 18% ROI on my parlays & 5% ROI on straight bets. That's normal - this will be the case for any sharp, profitable bettor

Continue 🧵👇

Sports betting is a LONG-TERM game 🗣️🗣️

From down $17k this month to up $24k. Trust the process of sharp, data-driven strategies like Positive EV & middle betting.

Here's 10 resources I HIGHLY recommend if you want to make money sports betting 🧵👇 1) Middle Betting Tutorial Video: youtu.be/k-yEUY7wlT8

Middling is a SHARP betting strategy. You're capitalizing on inefficiencies in the betting market, which is possible because EVERY sportsbook sets their own lines.

x.com/AlexMonahan100…

I gave out this play on Twitter...
1) FanDuel had DJ U's line @ 192.5, I bet the over
2) Fliff had his line @ 209.5, I bet the under

A 17 yard gap. If he had 193 to 209 yards, then I'd win both bets, which is EXACTLY what happened...

This is my 2024 sports betting profit & loss by LEAGUE

If you want to make serious profits, then you NEED to be betting on every sport... Here's why 🧵👇 My bets are given out on Twitter (notifications ON) & live stream: twitch.tv/alexmonahan100

1) More sports = more opportunity. Strategy video: youtu.be/nxS7mkHxSmo

We want to use multiple sportsbooks as sharp, profitable bettors. All books set their own "prices" (e.g. odds & lines), so the betting market is extremely fragmented/inefficient. We never know which book is going to have the best value (e.g. Positive EV, arbitrage, middle bets) on a given day. Sometimes, DraftKings has a ton of value. Other days, it's BetMGM & Fliff.

For the exact same reason, we want to bet on MULTIPLE sports. More sports = more surface area for the sportsbooks to cover = more opportunities for books to "slip up" & offer value.

Sometimes, there's a TON of NBA value. Other days, I find really profitable (e.g. Positive EV) bets in hockey. It depends. Sports betting is about getting an "edge" and data, not a specific sport.

My 2022/2023 results from verified public bet tracker @pikkitsports are in the 2 pictures. Some years, more of my profit comes from NBA betting. Other years, it's NFL. That's just variance.

“My intent is just making money. I have absolutely no political agenda"

Here's the story of how an anonymous French dude made $50 million betting on the election. 🧵👇 1) Markets reflect information
There seems to be a HUGE amount of people who think the only people betting on the election are uninformed degenerates, which is 100% false.

The French dude who moved the market towards Trump & made $50mln used an alternate polling method because he thought "mainstream" polling data was inaccurate. He was an expert in markets & math.

Unless you're willing to lose tens of millions of dollars to prove a point, you can't "manipulate" betting market data.

His predictions were DIALED - Trump winning 6/7 battleground states & winning the popular vote. These are the people using betting markets for REAL amounts of money & moving lines. Markets express truth.

Five simple formulas you NEED to understand to make money sports betting

I'm up $222,000 this year & it's ALL because I know these... 👇🧵 My bets are given out free on Twitter (notifications ON) & Twitch: twitch.tv/alexmonahan100

Formula 1: Fair Odds (The "No Vig" Line). Video Tutorial here: youtu.be/hxZQ6qEEXsg?si…

Sportsbooks are "market makers" - they make money by charging a spread called the vig (or 'juice'). The way a sportsbook works is:
1) They have models that spit out the "fair" price for a bet with no juice/vig (say -135 Dodgers, +135 Padres)
2) Then, they juice their markets. A book will offer -145 Dodgers, +125 Padres. A sportsbook just gives you WORSE odds than they believe are "fair."

A fair odds calculator just removes the juice/vig: oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…. For example, Pinnacle (the sharpest book) has their market +129/-140. That means they believe the Dodgers are "fair" @ -134 odds, Padres +134 odds. If you could bet the Padres @ +134 or better (e.g. +145) or the Dodgers @ -134 or better (e.g. -120), then your bet would "beat" fair value & be +EV.

If all the sharp/profitable customers start betting on the Dodgers, then a book will adjust their "fair odds" & re-juice their markets. For example, maybe they'll move the "fair" line to -150 Dodgers, +150 Padres. They'll then offer +140 Padres, -160 Dodgers to bettors (a 20 cent spread)

Profitable sports betting is ALL about finding bets above fair value.

I've profited over $215,000 betting on sports this year

There's SO much bullshit info, so I'm gonna clarify what you NEED to understand...

Here's 5 *critical* things if you want to make money sports betting 👇🧵 1) Win Loss Record Doesn't Matter (Odds to Win Probability)

Win loss record is irrelevant. People love to brag about winning "60%" of their bets. Who cares. If you go 6/10 betting @ -300 odds, you're LOSING money. All that matters is making money...

Betr is a parlay only sportsbook. I made this tutorial video on it: .

I'm up over $70k on Betr this year. I've won 126 bets, lost 618. That's a win rate of 17%. But my ROI (which is all that matters) is +99%.

Win rate is completely irrelevant.

$74,000 PROFIT sports betting this month

Basically every play given out free, yet I still get 1000's of DMs asking how I do what I do...

ANYBODY can win this much. Just work ethic. There's no participation trophies.

Here's the 11 BEST resources to *actually* make money 🧵👇 1)  Parlays: 

You absolutely can make money betting on parlays. Edge compounds. My parlay ROI is higher than my straight bet ROI.

That's expected. If your ROI is 3% on straights, on 2 pick parlays it will be about 6%. If you lose money on straights, then you'll get KILLED on parlays.

It's simple. Most people SUCK at sports betting & don't make money on straights, so they get DESTROYED on parlays. For sharp bettors, parlay ROI is always highest.

I'm up over $70,000 profit sports betting this month, all thanks to football.

ANYBODY can get these results during football season, so everybody should be gambling right now...

Here's 3 strategies that will make you the MOST money this NFL season👇🧵 #1) Value Bets (+EV, Positive EV Betting)
This is a must-watch tutorial on Positive EV, the math behind it & why it's so profitable: . DM me questions anytime, happy to help 🫡

About 85% of my results are from Positive EV betting. It's higher variance. Some days, I lose $5k. Some days, I win $10k.

Positive EV involves using market data (e.g. sportsbook odds) to identify profitable wagers. All sportsbooks set their own "prices" (e.g. odds/lines), and that's why there's so much opportunity to make money with Positive EV.

Here, Fliff was "stale" with Douglas's over @ -130 odds. Every other book ripped his over to being a much bigger favorite around -160.  That's raw data, information given to us from the market.

The same way a stock prices signifies company valuation, odds signify win probability. Sportsbooks odds = information that needs to be valued & understood:
1) -200 = 2:1 favorite = 2/3 to win (66.7%)
2) -300 = 3:1 favorite = 3/4 to win (75%)
3)  +300 underdog = 3:1 underdog = 1/4 to win (25%)

I gave this play out for free on Twitter

I profited over $38,000 today betting on the NFL.

EVERYBODY should be NFL betting. If you're not, you hate money.

Here's the bets I placed & strategies I used to make $38,000 👇🧵 #1: Middle Betting

All the strategies I use are data-driven, profitable strategies that PRINT profits. I don't bet with my "gut" or emotions. 99% of sports bettors do that, and that's why the books are in business. Invest in your betting education, read this WHOLE thread & you'll make a lot of money. DM me any questions anytime 🫡

Middle betting is when 2 books have their lines WAY out sync.  I found this INSANE play that I gave out free on Twitter with the @OddsJam Middle Betting Tool here: 

FanDuel opened DJ's line @ 192.5 passing yards. Another book, Fliff, had him @ 209.5. That's a huge discrepancy. Buy low, sell high. I bet the over 192.5 on FanDuel, the under 209.5 on Fliff. He had exactly 201 passing yards so I won both bets.

Here's the link to my Tweet sharing this play with everybody: . Basically ALL my picks are given out free on Twitter or Twitch stream

Here's a good tutorial on middle betting from YouTube: . Definitely worth watching, DM me any questionsoddsjam.com/betting-tools/…

https://x.com/AlexMonahan100/status/1834612092319748441

"You can't make money betting on parlays" 🤡

WRONG. I'm up over $107,000 this year betting parlays

Only people who don't understand how odds work say stupid shit like "Parlays are unprofitable"

Here's WHY parlays can be incredibly lucrative & the math behind them 👇🧵 "Why would you ever bet on parlays? Why don't you just play straight bets?"

1) Some of the most popular & lucrative sportsbooks in the country are "parlay only." That's just how it is.

Take Betr, the easiest book to make money on (I'm up over $71,000 this year). I have one play selected - Valdez Over 24.5 - and Betr says "Select at least one player from 2 different teams to place your entry.”

Unless you plan on NOT using some of the most lucrative sportsbooks in the country, you're going to have to place parlays. Here's a tutorial on how to maximize profit margin on Betr & other parlay only sportsbooks: 

2) A lot of sportsbook promos are parlay only. Some of these promos are very lucrative. For example, FanDuel has a "No Sweat" parlay for tonight. If you lose your bet, you get your money back.  Obviously you want to take advantage of this promo... There's 0 downside

I profited over $41,000 last year betting on the NFL

Everybody should be gambling because anybody can do this...

Here's the 5 strategies that will make you the MOST money this season🧵 Strategy #1: Arbitrage Betting (Risk-Free Profits)

Tons of good accounts to follow for this strategy: @TheArbFather, @brian_stephens_, @tsitjames & countless others.

Arbitrage is a way to *gaurantee* a profit when 2 sportsbooks get super out of sync. It's possible because ALL books set their own odds.

Here's an example from this weekend on Gus Edwards TDs. Fliff & DraftKings were SO out of sync that you could bet the over on DraftKings (Edwards to score), the under on Fliff (Edwards to NOT score) & earn a risk-free profit. You're day trading the sportsbooks to make guaranteed returns, sitting at home in your boxers

This wasn't a "big" arbitrage play, but it takes literally 20 seconds to place a few bets & lock in a risk-free profit of $5. It adds up quick. The opportunities are much more lucrative live (during games).

Here's a tutorial video on arbitrage betting that I recommend watching: . Out of the MILLIONS of odds/lines across sportsbooks, only a *handful* of bets are mispriced enough to guarantee a risk-free return (e.g. arbitrage), which is why the @OddsJam Arbitrage Tool is so valuable. These opportunities move pretty fast, so you also need to be quick navigating the sportsbooks.

https://x.com/AlexMonahan100/status/1831039892039905280

🚨 Betting Strategy

Got a lot of DMs asking "how" I knew these picks were good. No, I didn't just pick 2 random dudes to go yard...

It was all MATH. That's the only way you win long-term... There's no "luck"

Quick thread showing WHY it was so profitable (e.g. Positive EV) 🧵
Here's a YouTube tutorial/strategy video I made on this book (Betr): . DM me questions anytime. Want you to crush them 💪

Anyways, on Betr, any 2 "boosted" picks pays out 10x ($100 to win $1,000). That's just how their website works. Doesn't matter what 2 boosted picks you select. That means each individual leg is about +215 odds. Create any 2 pick parlay on a sportsbook where both picks are +215 odds. That parlay comes out to a 10x payout (+900 odds).

So you should think about it as - every individual boosted pick (e.g. Ohtani Home Run) is +215 odds.

if you're only using one sportsbook, you should QUIT gambling

You (no offense) have 0 clue what you're doing...

I use over 50 sportsbooks. Gambling apps are my entire iPhone...

Here's 5 reasons why you HAVE to be using multiple books if you want to *make money* sports betting 👇 1) All books have different 'prices' (e.g. odds). The betting market is very inefficient.

Simple example - let's say you want to bet Lehkonen to Score a Point. The exact same bet has a VASTLY different price (e.g. odds) on various books:
1) FanDuel: -122 odds (bet $122 to win $100)
2) BetMGM: -145 odds (bet $145 to win $100)
3) Fliff: -160 odds (bet $160 to win $100)
etc.

Of course, you'd want to bet this on FanDuel since they have the best price. If you could buy a stock @ $122 or $160, you'd buy it on the platform offering you $122. The price is WAY different (26%). You'd be insane & get crushed day trading buying a stock at a 26% worse price relative to the market.

I had roughly a 10% ROI in 2023, making over $170,000 profit. If I was getting shitty odds that were 26% worse, I would've lost 16% (roughly $250,000). Nobody wins every bet. This makes a HUGE difference long-term...

You need to be getting the best possible price on all of your wagers. It quite literally can turn you from being an unprofitable bettor losing tens of thousands of dollars to being a profitable, sharp bettor making tens of thousands of dollars.

Why does this happen in sports betting? All sportsbooks want to be unique, so they all set their own prices. If every book had the same odds, we wouldn't need hundreds... FanDuel does NOT want to have the same odds as DraftKings

Even both are "markets," the sports betting market is very different from, say, the stock market, which is an efficient market (e.g. the price you see for a stock on Robinhood is the same as the price you'll see on Fidelity).

Everything you need to know to make money sports betting

A thread 🧵 1) You want to use as many sportsbooks as possible
Every sportsbook wants to be unique, so they all set their own odds. If DraftKings/FanDuel had the exact same odds, we wouldn't need both books to exist... That means the betting market is extremely fragmented/inefficient, which is why there's a lot of opportunity.

These are (I guess) technically the same bet - both will "win" if Stone has 6 or more strikeouts - but the price is completely different. It's like buying a stock @ $105 vs $154.
1) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +105 on Fliff (betting $100 to profit $105)
2) Stone 6+ Strikeouts: +154 on FanDuel (betting $100 to profit $154)

Whenever I place a bet, I always make sure to get the best possible price. If you're hitting bets @ +105 odds when other books are offering +154, then you know you're getting ripped off.

Prizepicks, Underdog ...

Parlay only sportsbooks. Heroin ...

On PrizePicks, you should (almost) *exclusively* go with 5 pick flex plays.

On Underdog, you should go with 3 leg parlays.

Here's why...

(continue)

will take me a bit of time to write this one PrizePicks & Underdog both offer 3x payouts on 2 pick entries.

You're betting $10 for a $30 payout, $20 for a $60 payout.

That is NOT +300 odds ... That's +200 odds.

You're wagering $10 to win $20 in profit (plus your $10 stake back, so the total payout is $30).

(continue)