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Jan 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut. Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. #oil #opec
The total cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to market by OPEC+ is almost 1.1B bbls since we started sharing these metrics in January 2021.
13/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas.
Saudi Arabia’s production is down a bit this month, and still below quota. Russian production is down a bit. OPEC 13 production decreased by 0.09 MM bbl/d.

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More from @BisonInterests

Bison Interests Profile picture
Dec 17, 2022
There’s been quite a selloff in oil the past few months. Ironically, many of the same market participants who were excited about oil and gas prices and equities this spring and summer have since turnelid bearish—price drives narrative.
1/ As negativity increases so does the potential for outsized investment returns, particularly as underlying fundamentals improve. Persistent negative coverage in the media and declining net interest in oil in the commodities futures markets illustrate bearish sentiment:
2/ Oil supply is strained both in OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries. OPEC+ has repeatedly missed its quotas for more than 2 years now, even after a 2MM bbl/d cut, and total OPEC+ total production levels may be topping out for now:
Read 16 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022
OPEC+ missed it's October 2022 production quota by 3.31 MM bbls/d, according to third party surveys.
1/ Many smaller producers are definitively out of spare capacity, indicated by repeated production misses vs. quota. When removing the effects of large producers that may have some remaining spare capacity, we see that small producers have missed their quotas by more than 20%:
2/ This is the 20th consecutive month OPEC+ has missed production targets since we started tracking this in January 2021. In that timeframe, the cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to the market vs. expectations has ballooned to over 900MM bbls:
Read 5 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Oct 19, 2022
On October 5th, 2022, OPEC+ agreed to cut 2MM bbl/d from its monthly oil production quota, despite vocal opposition by the Biden Administration. For Bison white paper readers, this came as no surprise.

Here’s our analysis of the OPEC+ cuts, and implications for oil markets.🧵
(1/10) Lack of investment is a key driver of diminished OPEC+ spare capacity. Since we we first identified this in September 2021, it has translated to repeated production misses vs. quota by OPEC+. Most recently in September, OPEC+ missed its 42.2MM bbl/d quota by 3.57MM bbl/d:
(2/10) There are several indications that production misses will persist, and that OPEC+ production levels have peaked. For one, OPEC+ investment has remained low since the oil price crash of 2020, indicated by the flattening rig count in OPEC countries for most of this year:
Read 11 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Aug 23, 2022
Shortages of oil and gas are reverberating across world economies. High inflation is coinciding with Central Bank tightening and slowing economic activity. This could trigger a recession and potentially lower oil prices.

Here's why OPEC+ may support higher prices. 🧵
(1/22) Europe and parts of Asia are already facing an unprecedented energy crisis, with the price of natural gas in Europe (TTF) having increased 10x in 18 months:
(2/22) In the aftermath of the spike in oil and diesel prices earlier this year, and with the energy crisis worsening, OPEC+ is increasingly drawing attention as it repeatedly misses production quotas:
Read 23 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jul 27, 2022
Oil is in demand and on sale. Oil prices and equities are down significantly from their highs, despite strong demand, limited supply, and low valuations. Recession fears are overwhelming positive indications of a tight oil market and compelling investment opportunities.🧵
(1/20) Many observe market price movements and use them to filter and interpret fundamentals: price drives narrative. We have an alternative approach—focusing on fundamentals, “looking through” price movements and sentiment—and finding opportunity amid market turbulence.
(2/20) Despite all the noise, fundamentals are strong. Oil demand is growing, while supply is being limited by continued under-investment across the value chain and limited OPEC+ spare capacity. Let’s revisit the oil bull thesis.
Read 21 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jul 8, 2022
OPEC+ oil production update. Still substantial deviation from output targets
Total oil production in June for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.11, falling short of the 40.81 quota by 2.70 MM bbl/d

OPEC 13 production increased by 0.51
16 out of 19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their oil production quotas, the highest number of misses in a month since the agreement started
Read 6 tweets

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