Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #oil

Most recents (24)

US oil demand was 300,000 barrels per day higher in July than the #EIA STEO forecast. The gasoline demand number looks a little low, but higher than in the weeklies. This is much less bad than consensus. Bullish #oil
Read 5 tweets
1- #Oil US Gasoline demand rebounds somewhat again seasonal trends Image
2- Inventory draws remain substantial, and the end of the SPR release is now in sight Image
3- #Oil current picture can be summarised as follows:

PRO:
- End of SPR
- China Reopen
- EU Gas-to-Oil Switch
- Strong US consumer

CON:
- Global economic downturn
- QT liquidity reduction
Read 3 tweets
(1/4) Ein Retweet (Tread-1&2) vom 05.09.22 zur Frage der eiskalt einkalkulierten #Kanibalisierung D's & der #EU durch die #USA in/d Folge des #Ukraine-Krieges: die Sache rechnet sich je länger der #Krieg dauert umso gewinnträchtiger f/d #Amerikaner, darüber besteht kein Zweifel:
(2/4) ... Im 2. Teil der unbarmherzig klarsichtige Artikel von Michel Houdson (US-Ökonom) vom 01.03.22:

[...] ... So the most pressing U.S. strategic aim of #NATO confrontation with #Russia is soaring #oil and #gas #prices, above all to the detriment of #Germany. ...
Read 6 tweets
In response to DM’s:

Flights Investment Discord -
Please read 🧵 before joining:

$panr $ptal $btu $yca $pslv
#oil #uranium #Commodities
#investing

discord.gg/E46sDzDwt5
2/
In ‘The most important thing' by Howard Mark, he say's....Large amounts of money are not made by buying what everybody likes, they're made by buying what everybody underestimates.
3/
Disclaimer: Nothing in this Discord server is intended as investment advice. We are not your financial advisor, and this is not financial advise. Please, always do your own due diligence when it comes to investing and always take responsibility for your own choices.
Read 6 tweets
$XLE #oil $panr. The market is being incredibly myopic worrying about recession fears and thinking oil will collapse even though a # of catalysts ive highlighted repeatedly will soon end. 1. SPR sales go from sales to purchases 2. Rig count in US and Non opec not really rising.
3 oil demand is still resilient despite China being in lockdown. I wont address the first 2 as they are relatively self explanatory (and many smarter folks have posted those charts). I want to address the fact that 0 covid is IMHO nothing more than a ruse for Xi to get re-elected
Without a ton of protests (chinese protests were really going up significantly in 2019 prior to covid). HK just announced today an end to all quarantines and now were hearing that Sing will see a big influx in Nov. So what happens to oil demand with chinese oil demand growing -
Read 5 tweets
Probably President Biden should not talk about gasoline prices again. He just said something and we lost three refineries in 24 hours!
#Oil #OOTT #COM #EFT Image
Ok, now they are 4 refineries! #Argentina #Refinery #Gasoline Image
could you please post the link? thanks
Read 4 tweets
RE: #OIL

Oil is abiotic. That means it's naturally formed and isn't the byproduct of dead animals. The earth produces oil in the intense pressure cooker of the crust and mantle. It's an endless supply. My family made a lot of money in oil.
My great, great-grandfather, among others, could spot a bump in a hill and knew that oil was pushing & seeping up through the tectonic plates. He'd put up a derrick and drill and come a gusher. That was about a century ago when the lies hadn't been created yet.
He found "Signal Hill" for Shell in Long Beach, CA and many of the CA and Texas oilfields and bought much of the land others in the company thought was worthless. Signal Hill. Circa 1920s.
Read 13 tweets
1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/
2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC
3/ is $ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that's #crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis tradingview.com/x/ipsp0FQs/
Read 16 tweets
I was helping a friend with some market stuff and i discovered something interesting -
#OIL #VIX #SWAP #CANADA

Study this chart... this is how oil is crushed w/ monetary games...
👇🧵 Image
notice how CA30y dropped so much?
as the canadian 30y drops, oil responds... Image
notice the gap btw US30y and CA30y
usdcad got weaker relative to dollar Image
Read 5 tweets
BREAKING: Amtrak is canceling all long distance trains starting tomorrow in preparation for a potential railroad union strike.

The @JoeBiden administration is saying they're not going to get involved if there's a rail strike. Some implications: 🧵
1/ less coal by rail could mean more natural gas use for power gen. With already tight inventories, US natural gas prices could spike and potentially stay elevated. This brings potential convergence with international prices into play (sorry Europe!) - bullish #natgas
2/ less crude by rail could mean much worse Canadian oil differentials until the TMX expansion comes online. This would be particularly negative for oil sands producers. Particularly if AECO gas prices spike. - bullish AECO gas, bearish WCS realized pricing
Read 7 tweets
🚨 Headline: Biden officials said to mull buying oil at around USD 80/bbl to refill strategic reserves

Wow. They might actually get something right for once. They should go buy a bunch in the futures market below $80 and take delivery. #oil @JoeBiden
I expected an #opec put for #oil and might be getting a @JoeBiden put? bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…
Read 6 tweets
<thread> Tesla & #Lithium - a decade in the making

A lithium refinery has been in Tesla & Elon Musk’s @elonmusk thinking for ~10 yrs now & in (a serious way) for the best part of 3 yrs

The logic is sound

2020: 70-80% of lithium ion battery costs are raw materials

2010: 20-30%
Tesla has filed to build a lithium hydroxide refining facility in Texas (Gulf Coast).

This is a revisiting of its 2020 plan to build a spodumene conversion facility to make lithium hydroxide at #GigaTexas

Originally planned to launch Q4 2022.
This #GigaTexas lithium refinery would have been using a new hydromet process, as not to be reliant on sulphuric acid.

Our estimation was a smaller refinery to start with 15,000 tpa lithium hydroxide. Could now be 25,000tpa

@benchmarkmin story>>>

benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exc…
Read 24 tweets
Now comes the real market moves, catalysts are set . How to safely navigate what's to come! ⚠ 
Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10 -
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening.
We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It's time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: $CL $SPX $BTC #Ruble $RUBUSD
First, #Russia is screwed and #Ukraine made an extremely significant and successful military play. I've been writing on the professional side about how significant this is, but it cannot be understated the impact of these two countries.
Read 21 tweets
I've never been more excited about #silver. And it has nothing to do with the Fed or the USD. It's a story of the #oil and #gas crisis and it's 2nd/3rd order effects.

Let's start with the supply side. 73% of silver is a byproduct of Zinc, Copper, Lead, and Gold.
Smelting is energy intensive. According to @Eurometaux, half of the EU's Zinc output has already been shut off. As Zinc's smelting process separates the Silver from the ore, this is decreasing supply.

Since only 27% of Silver supply is primary,
the cure for high prices is not necessarily high prices. Silver rocketing to $50 wouldn't bring much more mine supply online (although it could incent bullion sales).
Read 17 tweets
1/ On the #oil price cap: After listening to this excellent Brookings discussion, I am more optimistic it could work, but I also believe it may need to be postponed by 8-12 weeks. Here is why...
2/ First on the cost of delaying #sanctions: The sooner, the more, the better. But this is just a small delay, and the goal - depriving Russia of FX and budget revenues - is a multi-year goal that will be gradually achieved, because Russia still has considerable buffers in both.
3/ The key question is of course Russia's reaction: Russia could reduce its exports, causing oil market prices to rise. From Russia's perspective, compliance would show weakness. Russia has shown it can reduce some production in 2020, and it is willing to bear costs (eg: gas...).
Read 14 tweets
Well... that requires a clarification. Lest people think the #German government hadn't spent two decades working on the country's demise.(/) @Halsrethink @ektrit @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Ed___________0 @petunianelsole @LorenaLuVi @andrepaltry @AlessandroPonz4 @eshow1969
"Competitive advantage" comes from "Competition", i.e. trying to be on average better or at least adequate in a game where may players are involved and where everyone sees everyone else. Think "bicycle race". (/)
But it is not enough to be adequate on a STATIC framework: there are ups and downs, hills and turns. So there is an element of foresight and tradeoffs needed. Time lags are also EXTREMELY important. Look up #OODA Loop for reference. (/)
Read 8 tweets
WTI #oil up 3% on no news to over $86 / barrel. No idea what the near term looks like, but the longer term looks quite promising, and the stocks are very cheap

No recommendation, consult an advisor, do not rely. Image
Two relevant news items. 1) European oil inventories are down
And 2) reportedly some oil production in Kazakhstan may be offline for a month or two
Read 4 tweets
#Oil production in Karachaganak will be temporarily stopped

This has been reported by the press service of the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. A planned overhaul will be carried out at the largest oil and gas field of the republic.
/1
"In the period from September 12 to October 6, it is planned to stop oil production at Karachaganak to carry out planned major repairs at the field," the ministry explained.
/2
The Karachaganak field is one of the largest in the world. proven oil reserves amount to 1.2 billion tons, gas — 1.35 trillion cubic meters.
/3
Read 4 tweets
Tokayev received Magzum Mirzagaliyev, Chairman of the Board of JSC NC KazMunayGas
 
The President heard a report on the measures taken by JSC NC "KazMunayGas" to stabilize the situation on the fuel market.
/1
According to the company, this year Kazakhstan will produce a record volume of petroleum products – 17 million tons.
/2
It has been decided to postpone scheduled repairs at the Shymkent and Atyrau refineries, which will additionally send up to 150 thousand tons of diesel fuel to the domestic market.
/3
Read 7 tweets
🔥Thread on the costs of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)! (simplified calculations)
1- In 3 years, between the start of 1979 & the end of 1981, 168 mb of crude oil were added to the SPR at an average cost of about $32/b. That is about $125/b in Today's money!

#Oil #OOTT #SPR
2- The fixed cost incurred by the taxpayer to prepare the caverns was around $4 billion. That translates to about $6/b assuming 650 mb existed from day one in 1977 (of course that was not the case, but I am trying to use the low numbers). $6 in 1977 equals about $29.40/b today!
3- So far, the cost is $125 +$29.40 = 154.40/b
The yearly SPR budget in 2019 was about $235 million. That translates to about 40 cents per barrel per year in today's money. The cost for 42 years is about $16.80/b

Now the cost is $154.40 + $16.80= $171.20!
#COM #EFT #Oil #SPR
Read 12 tweets
JUST IN:
China August trade balance(in USD term) $79.39 bln; Est. $92.40 bln, Prev. $101.26 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +1.20%, Prev.+2.3%;
#Exports +7.1% y/y ; Est. +13.0%, Prev.+18.0%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
JUST IN:
#China August Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +535.91 bln yuan, Prev.+682.69 bln yuan.
Imports +4.6% y/y, Est. +6.3%, Prev.+7.4%.
Exports +11.8% y/y, Est. +18.5%, Prev.+23.9%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
CHINA JAN.-AUG.IMPORTS RISE 5.2% Y/Y, EXPORTS +14.2%, TRADE SURPLUS 3.66 TRILLION YUAN.-CUSTOMS
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Read 6 tweets
OPEC+ HAS AGREED TO CUT OIL OUTPUT TARGETS BY 100,000 BPD IN OCTOBER

@BisonInterests "OPEC+ is Protecting Oil Market Downside"
bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…
The consensus was no cut, even among my Twitter followers. It's not a huge cut, but this does seem like a big deal. More to come, soon?
WTI #oil is back over $90
Read 5 tweets
@MikaLintila Ns. 'hallitus', #WEF-#GreatReset -kätyrit #MikaLintilä ja #Caruna-#PekkaHaavisto @pekkahaavisto ovat omatoimisesti katkaisseet Venäjän sähkön ja kaasun, aiheuttaen jälleen, kuten ns. '#pandemia'ssakin, mittaamatonta vahinkoa suomalaisille
- #EU on sanktioinut vain hiilen tuonnin
@MikaLintila @pekkahaavisto #GreatReset -logikkaa #SuomenTuulivoimaYhdistyksen haarakonttorista, Suomen tuhoksi:
#Fingrid: - "Venäjän rajasiirtoyhteyksien siirtokapasiteettia rajoitetaan käyttövarmuuden turvaamiseksi".
- Katkaisu kokonaan on siis ääriturvallista...
@MikaLintila @pekkahaavisto Samaan aikaan kun #Jauhojengi katkaisi kaiken, #USA'n #tuonti #Venäjä'ltä takoo ennätyksiä.

#UnitedStates #Imports from #Russia - 2022. Data 2023 Forecast 1992-2021 Historical
-data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on Aug of 2022.
tradingeconomics.com
Read 12 tweets
Disturbing trend becomes 'staggeringly common' in Putin's wartime #Russia: @npwcnn reports on the death of #Lukoil Chair Ravil #Maganov—at least the 6th high-profile Russian #energy/#oil executives who Russia says died by suicide cnn.com/videos/world/2…
@npwcnn Lukoil head Ravil Maganov, seen being honored by Putin, died on Thursday after falling from his Moscow hospital window. Suicide, #Russia reported. The energy giant said he died after a severe illness. Lukoil under his leadership came out against the war in Ukraine early in March.
@npwcnn Lukoil's Maganov's death makes him the 6th prominent Russian #oil/gas executive to die from "suicide" in almost as many months.

4 dead execs from Russian state #gas giant Gazprom, currently at the forefront of #Russia's #energy battles with the West since invading #Ukraine.
Read 7 tweets

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