Phillips O’Brien (@PhillipsPOBrien) has an article up on the UK Spectator on Ukraine's pressing need for ATACMS.

I agree...with a caveat.

1/6

spectator.co.uk/article/ukrain…
ATACMS comes in several variation of both 150km and 300km range. The former isn't what AFU needs, it's the latter.

Getting the USA to break the 'ATACMS Taboo' weeks or months from now for only the 150km range version would represent a real setback for Ukraine.

2/6
Since the extended-range version of GMLRS is designed to fly up to 150 km and went into production in October of 2022.

The Biden Administration should provide GMLRS-ER right now for a couple of reasons.

3/6
insidedefense.com/insider/extend…
1st, to demonstrate on the battlefield what the additional range buys in terms of warfighting capability for AFU.

2nd, to politically salami slice the "Escalation" barriers to entry for onramping ATACMS into Ukraine's inventory.

4/6
If GMLRS-ER is striking 150 km deep right now. Then adding 150km ATACMS would happen sooner.

And once ATACMS at 150km showed its capabilities.

The move to 300km ATACMS would happen sooner for Ukraine.

5/6
The reality is the sooner the Russo-Ukrainian war is ended with the complete abject defeat of Russia's imperial ambitions.

The safer the world will be for this generation.

6/6

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 19
What you are seeing may have nothing to do directly with Ukraine and everything with Putin 'coup proofing' his regime.

Military Coup 101🧵

1/
The following data is from a couple of presenters from the US Naval War College who did a role playing military-political seminar of a North Korean invasion of ROK in an Early 1990's Origins wargaming convention in Ft. Worth that I attended the out brief of.

2/
It surprised them in that it was the 1st time this scenario went nuclear.😱

In any case, most successful military coups to that date (Early 1990's) started in the Air Force for military professionalism reasons.

Doing the logistics for maintaining flying aircraft generally...
3/
Read 13 tweets
Jan 19
German Chancellor Scholz is an utter disaster for Germany's defense industry. Nobody in NATO is going to want German weapons after his current performance.

About 25% of Germany's politicians support Russia & hate Ukraine. Some of the Greens & SDP plus all of the AFD are
1/
...Russian proxies & brazen to boot. Scholz is a jackass for pandering to them.

He is sticking his & Germany's neck out to appease a minority in his governing coalition.

Scholz really drags Germany down into the Merkel morass of Germany as "Big Switzerland".

2/
It's all "If Europe burns, who cares ..."

Scholz is proving Pres. Trump to have been right about Germany. Worse, Scholz actions are powering up an isolationist wave in America politics.

"If Europe won't defend itself, why should we?" covers that attitude.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
The UK Combined Operations Pilotage Parties (COPP ) were one of those here today, and gone at the end of WW2, special forces units of the British military.

This Tweet thread is on one of their most important missions.👇
1/3
My first exposure to their existence came in a UK report on American preparations for the invasion of Japan, Operation Downfall, where in the Alamo Scouts of the SWPA's American 6th Army were compared to a COPP party.

alamoscouts.com
2/3 ImageImageImage
Doing internet searches on "COPP" lead me to this web site by @copp_survey

Both the thread & the web site are worth your time, if the little known history of WW2 secret military units is an interest to you.

3/3
coppsurvey.uk
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Whenever you see Western political or media elites talk about "A major escalation in the war" whenever Ukraine is armed to defend itself.

You are seeing another victory for the Russian "Reflexive Control" information warfare doctrine.

1/5
I've referred to this Russian infowar doctrine repeatedly.



2/5
And I've dropped relevant excerpts here.

3/5

Read 5 tweets
Jan 16
@thinkdefence has a very interesting question on the Russo-Ukrainian War with a set of answers that reflects his interests.

I think this is a useful crowdsourced learning exercise.

I'm going to repost my top three takeaways & add my reasons.

Please post yours in reply.
1/
What Ukraine has changed or reinforced my thinking on:

1. Industrial warfare never went away.
2. Western military procurement is broken
3. Western Intelligence is broken/incompetent on anything to do with logistics & supply chains.

2/
My reasons for that list

#1 - Russia was throwing 65,000 shells a day and Ukraine was throwing 5K to 15K shells a day in return. Russia has lost ~8K armored fighting vehicles/artillery/trucks & Ukraine ~2K.

#2 - Everyone in the West prefers shiny new platforms, jets, tanks
3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
This is the first picture I've seen of the Russian GTD-1250 gas turbine engine.

It looks smaller but not that different than an M1 Abrams get turbine from the same angle.

[A reflections on Western military maintenance practices & Western weapons transfers to Ukraine🧵]
1/
Comparing it to a similar angle with the AGT 1500 gas turbine engine of the M-1 Abrams MBT...

...leaves me asking why Ukrainians who currently maintain that Russian engine couldn't be rapidly transitioned to the Abrams engine.🤨🤔

2/
The fundamental principles of operation are the same and the culture the Ukrainian maintenance force comes from is simply far more computer savvy than Egyptian, Saudi & Iraqi maintainers of the M1 Abrams.

3/
Read 22 tweets

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