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Jan 17 13 tweets 3 min read

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More from @imetatronink

Jan 13
What’s Next?🧵

The always impressive @witte_sergei treated us to a great thread yesterday, wherein he discusses the possibilities for the soon-to-come Russian winter offensive. I highly recommend it.

I also continue to contemplate these questions.

1/16
One unknown is the actual number of combat effectives (and accompanying equipment) Russia has in the theater at this time – and their current disposition.

My approximation would be ~500k currently uncommitted combat-capable troops in fully equipped battalions.

2/
This ~500k estimation assumes that only about half of the recent mobilization + volunteers (~400k total) is combat-ready today.

Neither do I include Belarusian troops.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Jan 12
Response 🧵

It was I that characterized Peter Zeihan as a clueless #EmpirePropagandist clown.

In any case, as I read your posts, it is evident to me that your perspective on this war has been substantially informed by the very same species of propaganda Zeihan echoes.

1/18
The western intel propaganda psyop that commenced before the conflict went hot in early 2022 has effectively inverted the truth of what has actually occurred. And its overriding success has been predicated upon establishing fallacious parameters for interpreting events.

2/
Foremost among those fallacious interpretive parameters has been the degree to which the conquest and retention of territory has been established as THE measure of military success. In relation to this, I strongly recommend my analysis from early July:

3/
imetatronink.substack.com/p/destroying-m…
Read 18 tweets
Jan 1
🧵Auld Lang Syne

In honor of the momentous year of 2022 grinding to a halt not with a bang, but a whimper, and in light of my having become a somewhat reluctant blogger and small-time internet influencer, I present my top five blog posts of 2022.

1/
My criteria is entirely subjective. It represents the short list of those essays I personally feel had the most important things to say. I also believe they all remain pertinent, and will continue to do so into the future.

2/
#5 – No Fly Zone

I continue to believe the unprecedented display of air defense prowess by Russia remains arguably the single most underappreciated aspect of this war.

No nation in the world has previously demonstrated this capability.

3/
imetatronink.substack.com/p/no-fly-zoneh…
Read 8 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
Short 🧵

So Putin and Xi had a video conference.

Apparently it was all very cozy.

Against all the naïve predictions of the dopes who believed Russia/China could never be more than a strained marriage of convenience, there appears to be A LOT of romance in the relationship.

1/
Sure, it may not last long, compared to some marriages.

But I predict it lasts at least a decade, and probably much more.

The US State Department is not pleased. It has issued “warnings” to the two lovers.

2/
"Beijing claims to be neutral, but its behavior clearly shows that it continues to invest in close ties with Russia," a State Department spokesman said.

They then commanded China to cease further military support for Russia, and to stop defying US sanctions edicts.

Oh, my!

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 21, 2022
Short 🧵

I’ve been talking about the Russian build up of forces in Belarus since October. Now this build up is being noted by many western media sources and military analysts. This *may* suggest a decreasing likelihood of a Russian counter-offensive south from Belarus.

1/
Indeed, many of the Russian-friendly analysts whom I respect are dubious of a “big arrow” Russian offensive out of Belarus. And it’s difficult to dismiss their sound logic.

That said, I think it is worthwhile to revisit Soviet strategy from WW2.

2/
In the famous and decisive Battle of Kursk – which took place in the vicinity of current operations in this war – the Red Army incorporated an unprecedented amount of “maskirovka” to conceal their intent from the German high command.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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