The recent UK and Euromomo death figures are frightening. In the last few weeks, deaths have surged to higher than any point since early 2021...
2/ And those numbers are much worse than they seem. They follow a YEAR of high excess non-Covid deaths (not to mention earlier Covid waves in 2020 and 2021 which mostly targeted the very old and sick and should mean that deaths now are LOWER than normal)...
3/ The weather can't be blamed. In fact, this winter has been very warm in Europe. There's efforts to blame delayed medical care or "long Covid" look sillier by the week; they do not fit the pattern of what we're seeing...
4/ I take no pleasure in writing any of this. NONE. With the exception of my immediate family, almost everyone I know has had the mRNAs. But it is time to stop pretending that the obvious explanation is not the obvious explanation and start looking for underlying mechanisms...
5/ We already know these shots are causing long-term immune system changes in a way no one predicted. What we don't know is what those changes may mean. We need to find out, instead of pretending they're not happening...
6/ If deaths go back to normal in a few weeks, great. We STILL need to do this research - and lots of other work that we skipped in 2020. But at this point the media and government silence around these numbers is only going to feed conspiracy theories.
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1/3: Let's be clear, @MarionKoopmans: @NIHDirector_Jay is right. You absolutely pushed lockdowns.
In 2020, you and everyone at the top of @WHO (along with Tony Fauci) were caught between China and your secret fear that Chinese scientists were responsible for a dangerous virus...
2/3: Instead of telling the truth and letting the world navigate a few weeks of uncertainty, you pushed a lockdown and containment strategy - contrary to every previous plan for respiratory viruses - even as it became clear that Covid posed almost no risk to healthy people...
3/3: I know. I was there. And I didn't need a PhD in epidemiology to understand what was happening. Neither did anyone else.
You and the gang did extraordinary harm to public trust in science and medicine. Get yourself a less ridiculous avatar photo and apologize to the world.
Professional leagues basically need to suspend most prop betting (that is, betting on individual players's statistics) and in-game betting, but they won't, because those bets make far more money for betting companies than the topline game spreads.
In-game and prop bets are more profitable for several reasons
1: Traditional sports bets take hours to resolve. In-game bets win or lose in seconds and facilitate loss-chasing.
2: Prop bets let the betting companies use their massive databases to set more favorable odds...
3: In-game and prop bets facilitate parlays (multiple simultaneous bets that win or lose as one bet), which have much larger payouts (sometimes lottery-like) but also offer a much larger and hidden house edge (because the house has an edge on EACH leg of a parlay)...
1/ No, I don't trust a Chinese company to produce "safe" AI.
But the DeepSeek breakthrough is fantastic for both practical and philosophical reasons.
Here's what I mean: we've never had a tech hype bubble bigger than AI - not even the early Internet...
2/ And a key element of the hype the huge complexity and expense of the systems these companies are building to produce AI.
We're gonna need a whole new electrical grid! But it'll be worth it, because reasons. We promise!
3/ The race for complexity and cost has taken on its own logic. You're paying a guy who writes transformer code $500,000? Screw it, we'll pay him $700,000! You're buying $20 billion in Nvidia chips this year? We'll go $30!
There aren't just longitudinal studies, there are longitudinal studies examining both causation and reverse causation (looking at use and psychosis over multiple periods to see if psychosis in N is causative for cannabis in N+1. It's not)...
2/ The associational data is incredibly strong, with unadjusted ratios on the order of 10x.
There is clear biological/cellular level data showing that THC use dysregulates the cannabinoid system and that heavy users have changes in brain morphology...
3/ Many cannabis users (and practically all heavy users) have some experience with cannabis paranoia - which looks a lot like prodromal psychosis, why is everyone laughing at me? This is so common users joke about it - and have strategies to deal with it...