Very interesting to interview the German finance minister Christian Lindner for BBC News again at #WEF23… @c_lindner -
* inflation peaked & faster European recovery than expected
* Germany “completely diversified” energy & is today “not dependent on Russia”
* “new German model”
FULL STORY:
German finance minister @c_lindner
“Germany still dependent on energy imports, but today, not from Russian imports but from global markets…” as Germany completed LNG terminal in record 8 months.. claiming it as basis for “new economic model”
Thread: 1. Lindner claims with a series of supply side reform “we are about to change the German business model” and is no longer dependent on Russian energy: #Wef23
2.
Bit of a dig at the “Merkel era” of low competitiveness, epitomised by the fact it took 20 years to build Berlin airport… now says “the new German speed is 8 months” a reference to the 2 new LNG terminals commissioned from scratch on the Baltic coast
3. NEW
German finance minister tells BBC says “negative side effects of [US] Inflation Reduction Act for European economies” is an “opportunity for new negotiations” via US-EU trade diplomacy, waivers or even a US-EU trade deal but “have to avoid competition on more subsidies”
4. Is Germany on board with US push to reduce dependence on China?
Lindner: “I’m not in favour of any kind of decoupling from the Chinese market… we have to have a different approach.. we have to maintain China’s dependency on our technologies… diversification not decoupling”
5. Is Germany doing enough to help Ukraine defeat the Russians?
“We make our decisions in close cooperation with our allies, especially the US..and we jointly decide about the support of Ukraine with further military goods, then Germany will participate”
Ref to Leopard 2 tank?
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Coutinho co-opting the Treasury Permanent Secretary into backing idea that Labour will raise taxes by thousands…
All this arises because the OBR (unlike its equivalent in Ireland, Australia the US, the CBO) is prevented from doing comparable truly independent costings…
This whole “debate” is, for now, rather absurd, as next week we will get the actual policies in manifestos, the parties’ own assumptions and separate truly independent numbers on the implications for tax, spend & borrowing from the likes of the IFS & Niesr.
The Treasury Permanent Secretary who Coutinho deployed this morning to defend the £38bn/ £2k claim wrote to the Opposition to say it “should not be presented as having been produced by civil service”… this could be problematic…
Looks like a major “announcement” on energy bills is imminent … another @politicalpics long lens scoop… Big Six have been briefed … something to do with the energy price cap adjustment (cut) from July (coming by Friday), further policy on smart meters (rollout has stalled)
”Note we do not necessarily want their advocacy as consumer trust is so low in suppliers that if a package of this kind is backed by them then consumers will instinctively regard it as not in their best interests” the memo says of the Big Six energy providers
Logically, some sort of announcement that builds on the inflation fall (energy driven) on Wednesday and the further fall in the cap on Friday, to promote the idea that the cost of living crisis is behind us, but something not all the energy companies will back - perhaps rolling back some of the green additions ???
1 in 4 Scottish adults on anti-depressants doctor just told Amol on @BBCr4today re inactivity…
Can’t find directly comparable England stat … but NHS England business data says there were 8.6m patients prescribed antidepressants in 22/23 (up from 6.8m in 2015)… 19% of adults
Thanks followers - the doc did say 1 in 5, and the fact is here from NHS business data … 8.6m antidepressant prescriptions out of an adult population of 45 million… 5.6m women, 2.9m men. Up from 2015 6.8m prescriptions/ 43m population… (1 in 6)
these numbers seem astonishing.
By age
English children on prescribed antidepressants, including a handful of toddlers - big spike up is for teenage girls…
1. Leading African figures told me privately that Kagame’s clear frustration with the UK-Rwanda deal, communicated to me “it’s UK’s problem” & “have money back” also reflect eyebrows being raised in other African nations about general look for a man who likes to be seen as the modern leader of a confident Africa, and who may have clocked that it may be reversing his considerable investments in nation-branding (sponsoring PL footy teams) etc. Watch this space. Here’s my iPhone video…
2. Remember, there are two sides to this deal:
I got a note from a very connected commentator after my doorstep: “It's a really bad look for him. He knows that the whole point of this policy is to make the UK govt look tough on migrants, on the grounds that Rwanda is presumptively a terrible place to be sent to. It puts the Rwanda country brand back like 20 years. … the only thing people associate with the country is "the worst place the Brits can think to send people"….
Context here - some real buzz about Africa jumping value chains, not just producing minerals but the finished products the world needs and doing so within a massive new free trade area…
3. Heard an interesting theory from business leader Brits out here… the autumn election promise is a feint, and earlier (May?) will happen as a result of the “shock” of the ECHR (possibly?) quashing the Rwanda policy and fought on that basis, with an attempt to reenergise Brexit vibes… if that’s even half true… then worth noting that Ireland has just formally lodged its ECHR case against the UK on Troubles Legacy Act… oh… and coming up imminently on @BBCNews is my interview with the Taoiseach covering this topic…
Governor Bailey says the risk on inflation “remains on the upside” when talking to MPs… backdrop to the Autumn Statement push to declare a turning point - MPC member Catherine Mann also suggests rates should be higher, because of continuing price and wage pressures …
Mann: inflation forecast points to not hitting 2% inflation target until mid 2026
🚨
Bailey:
“Market is putting too much weight on current data releases” showing “inflation come down quite rapidly”… we are “concerned” about “potential persistence” of inflation as “we go through remainder of journey down to 2% and I think the market is underestimating this”…
extraordinary testimony from Dep Cabinet Sec Mcnamara, about “jovial tone” and “breezy confidence” of PM Johnson in face of Italian “overreacting” re first European Covid wave even there was “laughing at the Italians”…
at time Italian docs implored Brits to learn its lessons
There was definitely some lobby briefing at the time with some sneering at the Italians - which I recall being really rather revealing, because my medical family were recirculating accounts from Italian doctor friends repeatedly warning UK to take advantage of headstart eg below