Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jan 18 7 tweets 4 min read
Very interesting to interview the German finance minister Christian Lindner for BBC News again at #WEF23@c_lindner -
* inflation peaked & faster European recovery than expected
* Germany “completely diversified” energy & is today “not dependent on Russia”
* “new German model”
FULL STORY:
German finance minister @c_lindner
“Germany still dependent on energy imports, but today, not from Russian imports but from global markets…” as Germany completed LNG terminal in record 8 months.. claiming it as basis for “new economic model”

bbc.com/news/business-…
Thread:
1.
Lindner claims with a series of supply side reform “we are about to change the German business model” and is no longer dependent on Russian energy:
#Wef23
2.
Bit of a dig at the “Merkel era” of low competitiveness, epitomised by the fact it took 20 years to build Berlin airport… now says “the new German speed is 8 months” a reference to the 2 new LNG terminals commissioned from scratch on the Baltic coast
3. NEW

German finance minister tells BBC says “negative side effects of [US] Inflation Reduction Act for European economies” is an “opportunity for new negotiations” via US-EU trade diplomacy, waivers or even a US-EU trade deal but “have to avoid competition on more subsidies”
4. Is Germany on board with US push to reduce dependence on China?

Lindner: “I’m not in favour of any kind of decoupling from the Chinese market… we have to have a different approach.. we have to maintain China’s dependency on our technologies… diversification not decoupling”
5. Is Germany doing enough to help Ukraine defeat the Russians?

“We make our decisions in close cooperation with our allies, especially the US..and we jointly decide about the support of Ukraine with further military goods, then Germany will participate”

Ref to Leopard 2 tank?

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More from @faisalislam

Jan 20
NEW

In first British broadcast interview since returning as Taoiseach at #WEF23, in further conciliatory remarks, Leo Varadkar tells BBC of his “regrets” NI Protocol “imposed” on unionists, and that he gets why they feel it weakened the Union “without them having a proper say”:
Full Story here:

Varadkar says chances of deal before 25th Anniversary of Good Friday Agreement are “very real” and acknowledges that part of the solution could lie in the fact the Protocol has functioned even given the unilateral grace periods on checks
bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
More interesting things from that rather conciliatory interview by Taoiseach with me at Davos……

Why not continue with the grace periods on checks if the single market has been unaffected?

Varadkar: “think there is some room to manoeuvre. When it comes to the grace periods”
Read 5 tweets
Jan 19
NEW

Opposition leader Starmer & shadow Chancellor Reeves meet with Europe’s top bankers & some energy firms at World Economic Forum saying they want to turnaround UK falling share of world investment - “this is the sort of turn out a PM would get” said a business figure present Image
One chief Exec told me is that in both Sunak and Starmer, general relief that main two parties are both “pro business” but forward looking business people can see polls and want to know what a Labour administration would do, hence strong demand for meetings with Starmer/Reeves
…bigger point for both Govt and Opposition though is that at the same time the US Inflation Reduction Act and European equivalent are capturing the attention of investors & a tidal wave of investment in green economy - what’s the UK strategy? Especially given Brit Volt collapse
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
NEW …

At Davos I asked head of ILO, UN workers rights agency routinely cited by Government in support of its anti-strike legislation, if it supported the moves…

A: “not aware of any bilateral discussions”.. “v worried workers having to accept situations” under job loss threat
ILO DG Gilbert Hungbou told me at #WEF23 it did not want to interfere in national discussions, but said unions could file a complaint against the Government on adherence to its international workers rights convention, and it was already in conversations about that
… And then fairly extraordinarily… President Biden’s Labour Secretary (former union leader Marty Walsh) sat next to ILO DG suggested I ask him same q…
Q: does America support minimum service agreements?
A: “No…. I will not support anything that would take away from workers”.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
First foreign speech from top Chinese official since the momentous Congress last year, VP Liu Hei coming to #wef23 with what appears conciliatory message direct from Xi…

“Have to abandon the Cold War mentality… an equitable international economic order must be protected”…
Hei says:
“will work with international community on debt sustainability of emerging economies, & stick to international commitments on climate change (carbon peak before 2030 and neutrality by 2060)
must promote “positive sum games” and “work together to promote world peace”
On Covid situation, Hei:
“We are shifting our focus from dynamic zero covid” to managing Covid as a class B infectious disease - “a signal of reopening”.

“China has passed infection peak…, this years spring festival will see 5bn trips
Life has been restored to normal in China”
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Morning from WEF:

The green trade row dividing the Davos elite

- European CEOs tell me Biden’s green subsidies are tempting them to move production
- European leaders v concerned, will respond
- US not clear on response
- questions for UK strategy here bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
British Volt collapse obv of deep concern locally where promise had been thousands of good jobs in a key growth area…

bigger point is this though - UK really needs to have started building 4 of these battery plants to sustain current size of car industry… market is unconvinced
The “Global Britain” strategy was never about the car industry really -but if better pro-innovation regulation, and looking beyond Europe would have worked here, Tesla would have opened up here, were massively wooed, but Musk chose Berlin instead, (& publicly cited Brexit factor)
Read 5 tweets
Jan 4
PM Rishi Sunak addresses country in New Year speech from Olympic Park in Stratford…

Says wants to provide “relief and peace of mind” for the months to come…

Says he wants “reasonable dialogue with unions” will soon update on “next steps”
PM makes “five promises” including:

- halving inflation this year - though this is already forecast (actually a bit more) by the Bank of England and OBR by year end.

“Growing the economy” and “falling debt” too but they do not have the calendar year timeframe attached..
The fourth promise is that NHS waiting lists will fall (they are currently at a record high of 7.2 million)

And fifth promise is to “pass new laws” to stop small boats - though tellingly not a target on numbers
Read 10 tweets

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