Thread by @minna_alander

On 🇩🇪 angst of escalation:

There’s a growing frustration with the Chancellor’s position on delivering tanks in Germany too. However, many Germans nevertheless think that his Besonnenheit (sober-mindedness/ level-headedness, carefully considering risks) is the right approach.

In this logic, which is very susceptible to threats of escalation, any other outcome is better than a nuclear/ NATO-Russia war. Hence, the argument of costs of appeasement and inaction is overridden by the calculation that escalation must be avoided at all costs.

That also explains why Scholz insists on Abrams for Leos. So that if Russia answers with some kind of an escalation, he can say: “look, it wasn’t me, the Americans did it too (or preferably: first). I didn’t bring this upon us (at least alone).”

Essentially that is what Scholz means with “keine Alleingänge” (not going it alone): not taking responsibility for triggering any potential escalation alone. He has been very consistent about this and it won’t change, so whenever Germany takes a new step, it’ll have to be with 🇺🇸

It’s also the reason why Scholz still says that Ukraine shouldn’t lose and Russia shouldn’t win, but not the other way round. Because the outcome of 🇺🇦 actually winning and 🇷🇺 losing entails too many risks & unknowns, according to this logic that prioritises avoiding escalation.

There are parts of the German electorate that at this point absolutely disagree and understand that Ukraine needs to win and must get the equipment that enables it to do so.

But there’s no clarity what Ukrainian victory would mean. Many still think that Crimea is off the table.

Remember that Twitter is not your average German breakfast table and you get very easily labelled as Warmonger™️. Germany and Germans have come very far from initially delivering 5000 helmets and even that taking 2 months. But getting over these self-imposed red lines is hard

In the past weeks and months, it has been a huge debate in Germany what would make Germany a party to this war. It may sound counterintuitive as all the support the West is giving is well within the rights of international law. But there’s this constant search for the red line.

These self-imposed red lines have been constantly moving with every new weapons system that has been delivered to Ukraine. And every time, there was the same debate.

However, the main battle tanks seem to have crystallised as the one thing that surely would be too much.

The problem is that no amount of positive examples from the past (i.e. that no matter what was delivered until now, Russia didn’t escalate with nuclear weapons) can guarantee that it will not happen in the future, and that makes it so hard to overcome this fear.

(End)

P.S. of course the reason for all this is that Germany/ Germans want to avoid becoming responsible for yet another world war at all costs. It’s a flawed logic as also inaction and appeasement can lead to it. But having been the aggressor previously, these mental hurdles are high