Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
In today's #vatnik soup and the newest edition of "You pronounced this nonsense, not me", I'll talk about the NATO expansion and how - according to Russia - NATO and the West are actually at fault for the war in Ukraine.

1/13
In 2007, around the same time when Russia started their "economic war" against Europe, Putin held a fiery speech at a Munich Security Conference in which he accused the West of expanding NATO, thus breaking a "solemn pledge" given by a US secretary ...

2/13
... of state James A. Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990. According to some, Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand to the east if Russia accepted Germany's unification.

But this was never agreed. What Baker actually promised was that NATO would expand ...

3/13
... "not one inch eastward", but he was referring to Germany, not Eastern Europe. No agreements on hindering NATO expansion were signed, and Gorbachev himself confirmed that NATO's enlargement was not discussed.

Allegedly Putin never forgave Gorbachev for his "blunders".

4/13
Instead,the only formal agreement between the USSR and NATO countries was the Treaty of Final Settlement with Respect to Germany,which related only to troop placement & nuclear weapons inside Germany and former East Germany - & the promise made with this treaty has been kept.5/13
While some of the old Warsaw Pact countries were asking for membership to join NATO in 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed at the same time. The act stated that "NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries" and that NATO expansion ...

6/13
... is "a process that will continue". Before this, in 1993, Boris Yeltsin's wrote a letter to Bill Clinton saying that "Any possible integration of east European countries into NATO will not automatically lead to the alliance somehow turning against Russia."

7/13
Yet, academics like Stephen Cohen, John Mearsheimer, the Grayzone bloggers and other pro-Russian propagandists refer (or referred) to the Baker-Gorbachev "agreement" all the time, stating that the US and NATO betrayed Russia's trust.

8/13
Now, it's worth mentioning that NATO does not force anyone to join its ranks. Each country can put in their membership applications, and after it has been ratified by all other members, the country gets to join NATO. So, completely voluntary.

9/13
NATO has carried out an offensive military operation without the UN Security Council mandate once, in 1999 in Yugoslavia. This triggered some discussions on the operations legitimacy: its critics argued that the campaign violated international law and supporters argued...

10/13
... that the attack brought an end to the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo's Albanians.

During the 90's Russia had no interest (or resources) to stop the NATO expansion, and Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland joined the alliance in 1999.

11/13
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia joined the club in 2004, as did Slovakia. Actually, of the members added between 1990 and 2020, all were either formerly part of the Warsaw Pact or former Yugoslavia.

12/13
It's strange how all these countries, previously oppressed by the USSR, wanted to join NATO as soon as they could.

For example in Hungary, 85% of voted in favor of joining NATO. It's almost like they were still afraid of Russia's imperialistic endeavours.

13/13

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

May 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the state of X in May 2025. Since its acquisition by Elon Musk, this platform has rapidly transformed into his personal political tool and a breeding ground for hate speech and disinformation.

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Not everyone is following this shitshow as closely as I am, so I thought it would be good to write a summary of all the changes that have happened on this forum and outside of it. These changes have drastically changed how the platform operates and who gets “a voice” here.

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Elon’s team has been tweaking the algorithm many times after the takeover. One of these tweaks happened already around Nov 2022, when the platform heavily suppressed the visibility of pro-Ukraine accounts. This change was then noticed & reported by many pro-Ukraine accounts.
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Read 23 tweets
May 2
In today’s 350th Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American comedian and podcaster, Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith). He’s best-known for his numerous appearances on the Joe Rogan Experience and for his unhinged takes on the Russo-Ukrainian War.

1/22 Image
Smith has a massive megaphone - he’s a good friend of Joe Rogan, and he’s appeared on Joe’s podcast a whopping 16 times. Naturally, he’s also visited Lex Fridman’s podcast and frequently appears on Fox News’ Kennedy and The Greg Gutfeld Show.

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Dave is part of the Kremlintarian section of the Libertarian Party called Mises Caucus. They took control of the party in May 2022, and with the help of their new leader, Angela McArdle, turned it into an extension of the MAGA Republicans:

3/22

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Read 24 tweets
Apr 29
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian journalist, Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin). He’s best-known for posing as a Russian dissident, while at the same time sneakily promoting the Kremlin’s narratives about the Russo-Ukrainian War.

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On paper, Leonid doesn’t look like your typical Kremlin apologist - he’s written and worked for prestigious Western outlets like the BBC, the Guardian, and he’s even written some Lonely Planet guides for the Baltic countries!

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But Ragozin’s public commentary often seems to walk a fine line: condemning the war while pushing narratives that shift blame, dilute responsibility, or quietly carry the same old imperial baggage Russia - or its opposition - has never truly forgotten.

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Read 21 tweets
Apr 28
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll introduce a bank that is well-known in both Austria and Russia: Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) and its Russian subsidiary, AO Raiffeisen. It is one of the few foreign banks that still does business in Russia.

1/21 Image
Raiffeisen’s Russian branch was founded in 1996 and expanded dramatically after the acquisition of Russia’s Impexbank in 2006. A year later, it was the largest bank trading in foreign capital (seventh in size) in Russia.

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In the early 2000s, Raiffeisen opened new branches in Russia, including in Saint Petersburg, Samara, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Krasnodar. After 2018, it focused on digital expansion and by 2021 it had a digital presence in more than 300 cities.

3/21 Image
Read 22 tweets
Apr 24
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an Estonian lawyer, social activist, politician, and useful idiot for the Kremlin, Varro Vooglaid (@varrovooglaid). He’s best-known for promoting pro-Kremlin viewpoints under the guise of “traditional family values.”

1/20 Image
Vooglaid has an academic background, which usually gives people plenty of credibility in the eyes of the Kremlin. Most of his academic career was spent at the University of Tartu, but he was also a researcher between 2007 and 2011 at the University of Helsinki.

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Varro is likely the most influential vatnik in Estonia. His academic credentials provide him credibility, while his religious image appeals to “traditionalists” - many of whom oddly admire Russia and its imperialistic nature.

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Read 21 tweets
Apr 4
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll introduce a Russian ultra-nationalist propagandist and “philosopher”, Aleksandr Dugin. He’s best-known for his blueprint on Russia’s geopolitical strategy and for his genocidal rhetoric towards Ukrainians.

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In my first Dugin Soup, I covered the man’s 1997 book Foundations of Geopolitics — a manual for dismantling the West, breaking up NATO, and building a Russian-led empire. In it, he makes eerie “predictions” that seem to be playing out today.

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Dugin called for destabilizing the US by exacerbating internal divisions. Fast forward to today: culture wars, conspiracy theories, far-right lunatics, and social media algorithms doing half the work for him.

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Read 18 tweets

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