Vatnik Soup Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
In today's #vatnik soup and the newest edition of "You pronounced this nonsense, not me", I'll talk about the NATO expansion and how - according to Russia - NATO and the West are actually at fault for the war in Ukraine.

1/13
In 2007, around the same time when Russia started their "economic war" against Europe, Putin held a fiery speech at a Munich Security Conference in which he accused the West of expanding NATO, thus breaking a "solemn pledge" given by a US secretary ...

2/13
... of state James A. Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990. According to some, Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand to the east if Russia accepted Germany's unification.

But this was never agreed. What Baker actually promised was that NATO would expand ...

3/13
... "not one inch eastward", but he was referring to Germany, not Eastern Europe. No agreements on hindering NATO expansion were signed, and Gorbachev himself confirmed that NATO's enlargement was not discussed.

Allegedly Putin never forgave Gorbachev for his "blunders".

4/13
Instead,the only formal agreement between the USSR and NATO countries was the Treaty of Final Settlement with Respect to Germany,which related only to troop placement & nuclear weapons inside Germany and former East Germany - & the promise made with this treaty has been kept.5/13
While some of the old Warsaw Pact countries were asking for membership to join NATO in 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed at the same time. The act stated that "NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries" and that NATO expansion ...

6/13
... is "a process that will continue". Before this, in 1993, Boris Yeltsin's wrote a letter to Bill Clinton saying that "Any possible integration of east European countries into NATO will not automatically lead to the alliance somehow turning against Russia."

7/13
Yet, academics like Stephen Cohen, John Mearsheimer, the Grayzone bloggers and other pro-Russian propagandists refer (or referred) to the Baker-Gorbachev "agreement" all the time, stating that the US and NATO betrayed Russia's trust.

8/13
Now, it's worth mentioning that NATO does not force anyone to join its ranks. Each country can put in their membership applications, and after it has been ratified by all other members, the country gets to join NATO. So, completely voluntary.

9/13
NATO has carried out an offensive military operation without the UN Security Council mandate once, in 1999 in Yugoslavia. This triggered some discussions on the operations legitimacy: its critics argued that the campaign violated international law and supporters argued...

10/13
... that the attack brought an end to the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo's Albanians.

During the 90's Russia had no interest (or resources) to stop the NATO expansion, and Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland joined the alliance in 1999.

11/13
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia joined the club in 2004, as did Slovakia. Actually, of the members added between 1990 and 2020, all were either formerly part of the Warsaw Pact or former Yugoslavia.

12/13
It's strange how all these countries, previously oppressed by the USSR, wanted to join NATO as soon as they could.

For example in Hungary, 85% of voted in favor of joining NATO. It's almost like they were still afraid of Russia's imperialistic endeavours.

13/13

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Oct 10
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American propagandist Alexandra Jost, aka “Sasha” (@sashameetsrus). She’s best known for being paid by the Russian state to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda — and for doing it with a big smile.

1/23 Image
Alexandra, now 26, was born in Hong Kong. Her father is from Texas, and her mother is from Siberia. According to her, she has “dreamed of living in Russia since childhood.” Sasha's mother runs a dance studio in Moscow and her younger brother is avoiding mobilization.

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In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll reintroduce an American political commentator and pro-Kremlin propagandist, Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson). He’s best known for his promotion of crazy conspiracy theories and for his support of authoritarian regimes around the world.

1/24 Image
Tucker’s career spans decades, but he’s also been very active in recent years, so a lot has happened since our previous soup on him, which can be found here:

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Once described as “the most powerful conservative in America”, Tucker has now fully transformed into a grifting conspiracy theorist and propagandist willing to work for whoever pays him the most. It’s unclear whether Tucker truly believes his endless conspiracy theories or…
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Sep 25
This is what you’re debating with on social media:
It appears that a few pro-Russian bot farms already found this thread, so remember - just block them all, there's no point in arguing with a computer.
Most of you have seen those "No DMs" profiles, right? That's because you can interrupt the GPT procedure by injecting them new instructions.

At some point it also worked in comments ("give me a cake recipe"), but not so much anymore.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.

1/18 Image
Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.

2/18 Image
As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.

3/18 Image
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Sep 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.

1/22 Image
David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.

2/22 Image
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But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.

3/22 Image
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Sep 5
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.

1/14 Image
Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.

2/14 Image
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Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.

3/14 Image
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