Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
In today's #vatnik soup and the newest edition of "You pronounced this nonsense, not me", I'll talk about the NATO expansion and how - according to Russia - NATO and the West are actually at fault for the war in Ukraine.

1/13
In 2007, around the same time when Russia started their "economic war" against Europe, Putin held a fiery speech at a Munich Security Conference in which he accused the West of expanding NATO, thus breaking a "solemn pledge" given by a US secretary ...

2/13
... of state James A. Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990. According to some, Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand to the east if Russia accepted Germany's unification.

But this was never agreed. What Baker actually promised was that NATO would expand ...

3/13
... "not one inch eastward", but he was referring to Germany, not Eastern Europe. No agreements on hindering NATO expansion were signed, and Gorbachev himself confirmed that NATO's enlargement was not discussed.

Allegedly Putin never forgave Gorbachev for his "blunders".

4/13
Instead,the only formal agreement between the USSR and NATO countries was the Treaty of Final Settlement with Respect to Germany,which related only to troop placement & nuclear weapons inside Germany and former East Germany - & the promise made with this treaty has been kept.5/13
While some of the old Warsaw Pact countries were asking for membership to join NATO in 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed at the same time. The act stated that "NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries" and that NATO expansion ...

6/13
... is "a process that will continue". Before this, in 1993, Boris Yeltsin's wrote a letter to Bill Clinton saying that "Any possible integration of east European countries into NATO will not automatically lead to the alliance somehow turning against Russia."

7/13
Yet, academics like Stephen Cohen, John Mearsheimer, the Grayzone bloggers and other pro-Russian propagandists refer (or referred) to the Baker-Gorbachev "agreement" all the time, stating that the US and NATO betrayed Russia's trust.

8/13
Now, it's worth mentioning that NATO does not force anyone to join its ranks. Each country can put in their membership applications, and after it has been ratified by all other members, the country gets to join NATO. So, completely voluntary.

9/13
NATO has carried out an offensive military operation without the UN Security Council mandate once, in 1999 in Yugoslavia. This triggered some discussions on the operations legitimacy: its critics argued that the campaign violated international law and supporters argued...

10/13
... that the attack brought an end to the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo's Albanians.

During the 90's Russia had no interest (or resources) to stop the NATO expansion, and Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland joined the alliance in 1999.

11/13
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia joined the club in 2004, as did Slovakia. Actually, of the members added between 1990 and 2020, all were either formerly part of the Warsaw Pact or former Yugoslavia.

12/13
It's strange how all these countries, previously oppressed by the USSR, wanted to join NATO as soon as they could.

For example in Hungary, 85% of voted in favor of joining NATO. It's almost like they were still afraid of Russia's imperialistic endeavours.

13/13

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Sep 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.

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Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.

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As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.

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Read 19 tweets
Sep 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.

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David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.

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But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.

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Read 24 tweets
Sep 5
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.

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Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.

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Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.

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Read 15 tweets
Sep 2
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Swiss/French writer, Alain Bonnet, aka Alain Soral (@officielsoral). He’s best known for his rabid antisemitism and for his pathetic support for all the worst authoritarian regimes from Russia to North Korea.

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Alain’s childhood was problematic, as his father has been characterized as a “narcissistic pervert” who beat his children and did jail time for fraud. Alain himself has said he was “programmed to be a monster.” Born Alain Bonnet, he took the stage name of his sister,…

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… actress Agnès Soral. She wasn’t too happy about this, commenting “How would you like to be called Agnès Hitler?”. Like many grifters, he became a pick-up/seduction artist writer, à la late Gonzalo Lira, writing books and even making a B-movie, “Confessions d’un dragueur”.
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Read 23 tweets
Aug 18
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.

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Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.

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Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.

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Read 25 tweets
Aug 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about engagement farming: a cynical social media tactic to rack up likes, shares, and comments. From rage farming to AI-powered outrage factories, engagement farming is reshaping online discourse and turning division into profit.

1/23 Photo by JULIE OLIVER /Postmedia
Engagement farming is a social media tactic aimed at getting maximum likes, shares, and comments, with truth being optional. It thrives on provocative texts, images, or videos designed to spark strong reactions, boost reach, and turn online outrage into clicks and cash.

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One subset of engagement farming is rage farming: a tactic built to provoke strong negative emotions through outrageous or inflammatory claims. By triggering anger or moral outrage, these posts often generate 100s or even 1,000s of heated comments, amplifying their reach.

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Read 24 tweets

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