Dan Neidle Profile picture
Jan 20 6 tweets 2 min read
New development. Guardian reporting Zahawi paid the tax plus interest, plus a 30% penalty - over £5m.

30% is at the lower end of what I'd expect. But the obvious point: people whose taxes are "fully up to date" don't pay 30% penalties to HMRC. theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/j…
And - important point - if the £5m and 30% figures are correct, that is absolutely consistent with my original estimate back in July that Zahawi owed £3.7m in tax. taxpolicy.org.uk/2022/07/10/zah…
Here's the current HMRC guidance on penalties:
Tax nerd note: exactly on what basis the tax was charged, when interest was computed from, limitation periods, penalty regime etc, are all impossible questions to answer without more facts. In particular - when was the cash received by Zahawi in the UK and in what form?
Possibly this was put in the "too complicated and not really relevant" box and the settlement simply specifies an amount? @nimshah14 and #taxtwitter, what do you think?
And Zahawi's response of "Nadhim Zahawi does not recognise this amount". So it was £5.2m?

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More from @DanNeidle

Jan 22
I gave an interview to BBC Breakfast this morning on Zahawi's statement/partial admission. That, and my detailed response, can be found here: taxpolicy.org.uk/2023/01/22/zah…
Here's my commentary on the statement:
I agree. YouGov, and Zahawi’s role in founding it, is an amazing British success story. He should be proud of it. Image
Read 43 tweets
Jan 21
More questions. If Zahawi just made an innocent mistake and did his civic duty in cleaning it up… why did he threaten to sue people reporting on it? And try to keep those threats secret?

taxpolicy.org.uk/letters/
Why did he tell the Sun he “never had to instruct lawyers to deal with HMRC on his behalf”?

I’m guessing he instructed accountants. That doesn’t make his statement true. It’s clearly a deliberate attempt to deceive. Image
Why did he tell Newsnight his tax affairs “are and were fully up to date”. Not before the settlement they weren’t. Again, it’s an attempt to deceive. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
Quick note to people reporting on Zahawi. If he did fail to pay £3.7m capital gains tax, that likely means he failed to report receiving ***£27m***.

He presumably claimed this was merely “careless” (and so not tax fraud). How plausible is that?
Calculations in my original analysis here. taxpolicy.org.uk/2022/07/10/zah… Image
It’s easy to assume that this is a case of the cover-up being worse than the crime. But that ain’t necessarily the case.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
So Zahawi is currently briefing journalists on background that the only evidence against him comes from the blog of a Labour activist. That's a very weird way to describe The Sun.
As for me, I've never hidden my political views. But my tax analysis has always been non-partisan. I've defended Sunak, Hunt, Rees-Mogg and Cameron against accusations of tax avoidance taxpolicy.org.uk/2022/07/22/sun…
And in 2019 I was scathing about Labour's tax and nationalisation plans - McDonnell's people briefed that I was the Tories' favourite lawyer. ft.com/content/dc17d7…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
It’s wrong to say Nadhim Zahawi evaded tax. It’s also wrong to say he didn’t. Here’s why.

taxpolicy.org.uk/2023/01/20/zah…
It’s increasingly likely that Nadhim Zahawi should have paid £3.7m in tax at some point after 2005, but didn’t. What are the legal consequences? Did he evade tax? As lawyers always say: it depends.
Here’s my handy tax avoidance/evasion infographic:
Read 37 tweets
Jan 20
Stonking piece by Jawad Iqbal in today’s Times:

thetimes.co.uk/article/01e426…
And The Guardian:
But they’re too ready to say Zahawi didn’t evade tax. Depends on whether he was dishonest at the time. We don’t know if he was, probably won’t ever know, and probably HMRC wouldn’t be able to prove it. But it is absolutely a possibility - particularly given his cover-up in 2022
Read 5 tweets

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