Latest Twitter Threads by @DanNeidle on Thread Reader App

Jul 23 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

Tax avoidance promoter Property118 tried, and failed, to silence me with legal threats. Now they’re riling up their followers to the point of physical threats:

They sold a scheme that’s been attacked as hopeless by just about every public tax commentator, and which HMRC have now made it a criminal offence to promote.

It suits Property118 to personalise this as being about me. It isn’t.

Jul 5 • 45 tweets • 8 min read

Before we bask too luxuriously in the majesty of democracy, here's new evidence (thanks to @wethinkpolling) that half the public doesn't understand income tax. Half of voters believe that, once you hit the higher rate threshold, the 40% higher rate applies to all your earnings. Our report, with full polling data is here. taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/07/05/hal…

Jul 4 • 100 tweets • 13 min read

Here's my dozen tax reform ideas for the new Chancellor: The full article is here:

thread belowtaxpolicy.org.uk/2024/07/04/a-t…

Jul 3 • 47 tweets • 10 min read

Last month we reported that HMRC errors had let Paul Baxendale-Walker, the UK's most notorious tax avoidance promoter, escape a £14m penalty in 2023.

It gets worse. A few months later, HMRC issued a "stop notice" to a PBW company, without noticing that it had been struck-off. Our report is here:

Thread follows below.taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/07/03/ano…

Jul 2 • 18 tweets • 4 min read

HMRC did it again. Missed a deadline on an important avoidance case. The result: HMRC's entire case struck out.

Got to wonder if something is seriously wrong.

This time the deadline wasn't in the slightest bit complicated. The judge set the deadline in writing, and it was an "unless order", i.e. if you fail to comply, you get struck out

Jul 1 • 20 tweets • 5 min read

Opinion polls often show lots of people personally willing to pay more tax. But they never ask the obvious follow-up question: how much more tax?

We did. It wasn't pretty.

https://twitter.com/Mubin_Haq/status/1807695518333554701

Full findings, and complete polling data, is here.

Thread below.taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/03/17/tax…

Jun 28 • 22 tweets • 5 min read

The Telegraph says Lord Pannick thinks the ECHR stops Labour putting VAT on private school fees.

He's wrong, and I think almost every tax lawyer will agree with me.

Thread:

The most important point is a practical one: ECHR challenges can override acts of Ministers/public officials, but can't override Acts of Parliament.

Jun 24 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

Scotland is about to create an amazing new legal vehicle for money launderers, tax evaders and sanctions-busters. By accident.

"Private purpose trusts" have been widely used abroad for tax evasion, money laundering and sanctions-busting. They've never been permitted in the UK.

But Scotland is about to introduce them. This seems a serious mistake.

Jun 22 • 32 tweets • 7 min read

Exclusive report: new data reveals that HMRC's failure to close the small business tax gap costs £15bn/year.

Our report is here:

Summary thread belowtaxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/22/hmr…

Jun 21 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Fun point: if Labour *isn't* planning to raise capital gains tax, then newspaper reports like this (saying they are) will result in additional tax revenue.

theguardian.com/politics/artic… Why?

Imagine I have £50,000 in a fund that tracks US stocks. It's gone up £25,000 since 2020.

If I sell now, I'll pay CGT of £5k (20% x £25k)

If Labour equalise the rate, I'll pay twice that.

Jun 20 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

Okay, here’s what I don’t understand. Why are the amounts so small?

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1803802474408456443

I’m not being funny, or trying to make a point. But if Evil Dan had inside information, and wanted to bet on it, he would get his mate to put a large large bet. Untraceable and worth doing.

Jun 19 • 58 tweets • 12 min read

Exclusive report: a series of errors by HMRC let Paul Baxendale-Walker, probably the UK's most notorious tax avoidance scheme promoter, escape a £14m penalty

He's threatening to prosecute me for harassment, sue me for libel *and* sue me for £500,000 if I report this. Here goes: Our full report is here: taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/19/bax…

Jun 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read

What's more surprising?

That the Green Party want to tax graduates with three kids earning £60k at a marginal rate of 72%?

Or that the Tories want to tax graduates with three kids earning £120k at a marginal rate of 78%? The Greens used to want to abolish student debt. Now it's just a "long term aim". But the interaction of student loans, child benefit, and the Green's tax rise on people earning £50k is truly horrid:

I don't think they understand their own proposal.

Jun 17 • 69 tweets • 11 min read

Reform UK plan tax cuts which they say will cost £70bn; however our analysis shows the actual cost will be at least £93bn.

And their funding figures are out by £15bn+

All this means Reform UK have a total unfunded cost of at least £38bn - about two Liz Trusses. Our complete analysis is here, with links to all sources, calculations and models taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/ref…

Jun 16 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Some people think the highest rate of income tax should be 20%. Some people think it should be 60%.

Of course nobody thinks the highest rate should be 62%, but only on people earning £100-125k. That would be mad.

But that's the tax system we have:

There's an interactive version of the chart here - it lets you play with the different parties' manifesto promises

(works better on desktop than mobile; sorry)taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/03/10/inf…

Jun 15 • 21 tweets • 6 min read

Starmer, if he becomes PM, will inherit the highest British taxes since the war. Only an idiot would say this is his fault. Thing is, it's not Sunak's fault either.

A thread where I will annoy everyone.

Arguing about which small tax rises politicians may or may not make is an unforgivable failure to deal with the real questions: How come taxes are so high, when public services are often so poor? And what can be done about it?

Jun 14 • 13 tweets • 3 min read

I'm not generally in favour of politicans ruling out every conceivable tax rise. But Labour should rule out CGT on homes, because it's a hopeless idea. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/… Why?

Imagine you buy an average house worth £300k. House prices rise, it's worth £350k. You want to move jobs, and move house to somewhere else also costing £350k,

If there's CGT on your home, that's £15k of tax.

Jun 14 • 113 tweets • 24 min read

Our take on the Labour manifesto: the numbers seem realistic, but there's not much tax in it, certainly nothign that's new, and an almost total absence of pro-growth tax reform measures. A disappointment. Our full analysis is here:

Thread follows (not as long as the last one):taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/14/our…

Jun 13 • 14 tweets • 4 min read

This is a good question. Here's the answer:

https://twitter.com/JohnLewisEU/status/1800892191042335093

First, this isn't just a UK thing. Almost every country in the world taxes capital gains on shares less than labour income.

The arrowheads on this chart show the CGT rate: the end of the tail is the labour income rate.

Just three exceptions: Denmark, Australia, Mexico

Jun 12 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

OK this is weird. Yesterday the Tory Party accidentally proposed a top tax rate of 70%. This morning, the Green Party accidentally proposed cutting petrol duty.

Quick thread: The Greens are proposing a carbon tax. That's fantastic - a carbon tax is the best way to incentivise everybody to reduce carbon emissions, without government trying to micro-manage everything.

Jun 11 • 65 tweets • 13 min read

Our take on the Conservative manifesto:

It proposes £6bn of tax cuts in 2024/25, rising to £17bn in 2029/30. These figures appear realistic.

But the bigger question: why is the manifesto almost completely silent on tax reform, when so much of the UK tax system is badly broken? And the manifesto itself falls into a tax trap our broken tax system creates. A proposed change to child benefit tax accidentally creates a new marginal rate of 70% for a parent earning £120k who has three children under 18.

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