Thread by @minna_alander

It seems to me that the key to Germany’s reluctance to deliver tanks is what Scholz always says:

That Ukraine should not lose and Russia should not win.

Instead, Ukraine should get enough support to prevail until both sides are ready for negotiations.

Scholz doesn’t say that Ukraine should win because he’s not certain whether a Ukrainian military victory should be the aim.

The reasoning is that if Russia lost, the consequences would be too unpredictable and dangerous (this is what Mützenich has said btw).

That is reflected in the nature of Germany’s military aid: it has delivered everything that can be thought of as defensive and enables Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks, but not to attack back (at least not very effectively).

So when Scholz says that Germany will support Ukraine as long as necessary, he means until both sides agree to negotiate. Ukraine should be supported enough to achieve a strong enough position militarily so that Russia can’t dictate the conditions („kein Diktatfrieden“).

That is also what most Germans believe to be the end of the war (“wars always end at the negotiation table”) and it’s the best way to make the weapons deliveries to Ukraine palatable for the public: that their purpose is to give Ukraine a better position in the negotiations.

This poll shows that Germans are quite split on the issue of delivering leopard tanks: 46% in favour, 43% against

According to this poll for RTL, 54% are in favour of delivering leopards to Ukraine but 58% don’t want Ukraine to use them to take back Crimea.

Crimea is indeed quite widely believed to be a definite red line that Ukraine will just have to accept - despite international law

https://twitter.com/nikolausblome/status/1616389312152567809

Here’s an interesting study from 2016 about how successful the narrative in the Russian influence campaign in Germany was that “Crimea was always Russian”

laender-analysen.de/russland-analy…

Since a Ukrainian military victory would most likely have to entail also taking back Crimea (that is the absolutely legitimate ambition on the Ukrainian side), it’s hard for Germany to endorse considering the public opinion on the matter.

Btw I’m not aware whether Baerbock, who has said that Ukraine should win, has mentioned Crimea as part of that deal.

I believe that this is the crux of the issue in Germany - the fear of the consequences if Ukraine pushes too hard & too far, esp to Crimea.

(End)

P.S. to those who say Germany’s leadership should just ignore public opinion: Baerbock got bad backlash in September when she said she doesn’t care what German voters think and sanctions will remain in place even if there are protests against high energy prices