Akshay Badjate Profile picture
Jan 20 3 tweets 1 min read
If #AsianPaints went back to its ATH of 3600 by 2033 (28% upside from CMP) + profits tripled to ~12,000 Crs (12% CAGR - Last 3/5/10/15 yr PAT CAGR was on an avg 13%)

The 25 Yr Stock Px CAGR would STILL be 15% and the stock would STILL be trading at ~30x FY33 PAT

1/n
If #Fevicol (Pidilite) went back to its ATH by 2033(22% upside from CMP) + Profits tripled to +4,000 crs, (12% CAGR - last 3/5/10 yr PAT CAGR avg was 8%)

The 25 Yr Stock Px CAGR would STILL be 15% & the stock would STILL be trading at 35x FY33 Earnings

2/n
Did similar exercise on 5 BAAP stocks with a total Mkt Cap of $110 bn

All of them r trading between 5-12x PEG

DII + Retail are currently holding a Stinky bag worth ~$30bn in JUST THESE 5 NAMES

May the good Lord bless those poor souls for a world of pain awaits them

~Fin~

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Akshay Badjate

Akshay Badjate Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @abadjate

Sep 18, 2022
"This time it's different"

The most abused word on social media today.

Well. You and I are not the only ones to have believed this.

It has happened to your elder brother, your father, your chacha, your mama, heck even your grand dad when they were YOUR AGE

1/n
Most of us on this side of 40 have an avg investing experience of barely 10 years.

It is but natural that we are shaped by not only our own personal experiences but also of those around us, especially our own peer set within an age band of 10 years

2/n
Our fathers and uncles at some point were our age too. They had the same arrogance and confidence as the world was theirs for the taking when they were 25-30 years of age.

Each bull market brought different levels of misplaced arrogance and a false sense of "new normal'

3/n
Read 18 tweets
Jun 5, 2022
Let me tell you guys a story.

I was a part of the institutional equities team that was bought out by Lehman Brothers in mid 2007.

For those who don't know, Lehman was the top of league tables globally in the investment banking world right next to Goldman & even

1/n
A cut above the Morgan Stanley's and JPMorgans of the world at the time. (From an employees point of view: The employee compensations, the work place, the quality of people, everything was absolutely top notch)

Now let's get to the story at hand

2/n
Our team at Lehman published a major flagship report in October 2007.

So much that we even kept a party at the Taj Mahal Hotel to inaugurate the report called

"India: Everything to play for"

All the bigwigs attended this party. From the top CIOs of Mutual Funds

3/n
Read 25 tweets
May 27, 2022
Yesterday I said tht perhaps we r still some time away from a "Possible" durable market bottom. Why do I say that ? A thread with certain tables & graphs

Mind you: Mkts are like the multiverse. There are infinite ways in which things can ultimately play out!

So here goes

1/n
Nifty 500 Divergence from its 200 Daily Moving Avg. Barring 2008/09 and 2020 flash crash, most important bottoms have happened at the RED LINE. We are still ~8% away from there. Its Similar for Nifty 50 as well

2/n
This is one of my favorites. % of Stocks Above their 200 Daily Moving Avg. The Universe is a list of top 1000 Names (which qualify).

Important Mkt bottoms have happened at or below the RED line. We still need ~15-20% of stocks or 150-200 stocks to go BELOW their 200 DEMAs

3/n
Read 12 tweets
Feb 26, 2022
Let me tell you a story where everyone was a winner till the music was playing:

Meet a group of HNIs. They decide to put $2.5mn in a VC fund as investors.

Now this group of HNIs float a start up.

They hire a few people, make a nice PPT and conjure up a biz model

1/6
They decide to raise $25mn by diluting 10% stake.

They hire a banker and go thru a bunch of investor meetings armed with their fancy PPT and futuristic biz plan.

Now they go to the same fund that they had first invested in.

2/6
Voila! They get a commitment of $2.5mn for their desired valuation (the same money they invested in the fund)

Suddenly other VCs who were on the fence pour in.

The $25mn gets locked up in a jiffy.

The group of HNIs on paper have suddenly turned richer by $250mn

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Feb 17, 2022
SAIL: Steel Authority of India Ltd.

Let's discuss this stock.

What if I told you that CMP of 95 = 20-25 rupees seen in March 2020

Yes. 95=25 I kid u not!

How is that so?

Ok so it's just a little bit of simple maths & I will take you guys through it. Read on.

1/n
Let's look at some key stats:

Mcap: 40,000crs
Net Debt (Mar'22E): 20,000crs

EV (Enterprise Value) = 60,000Crs

Capacity by FY22/23: 21.4MT

Capacity 10 yrs ago: 12.6MT

Capex: 70,000crs for 8.8MT (8,000crs/MT)

Ok Not great TBH. Efficient guys do this in 4000-6000crs

2/n
But this is where d magic of a sharp upcycle kicked in

Betwn Apr'20 - Mar'22 SAIL effectively reduced it's net debt by a cool 35,000crs!

Wht was d EV in Mar'22? It was 65-70,000crs (55,000crs Debt + 10-15,000crs Mcap)

I.e. EV remained d same but capacity went up!

3/n
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2, 2022
Here are some interesting Statistics about India to give you some perspective:

1390mn - Total Pop
1030mn - Literates
600mn - Use smartphones
500mn - Employed People
490mn - Use Whatsapp
450mn - SBI Customers
440mn - Facebook Users
420mn - Jio Users
384mn - Informal Workers

1/7
350mn - PhonePe Users
350mn - Flipkart Users
355mn - Airtel Users
338mn - Kids <15 Yrs
327mn - PAN Card Holders
250mn - 2 Wheeler Owners
225mn - Youtube viewers
220mn - Googlepay Users
215mn - Telegram Users
160mn - Homemakers
140mn - Instagram Users
138mn - Senior Citizens

2/7
130mn - Gmail Users
130mn - Paytm Users
105mn - Airplane Travellers
105mn - JioSaavn Users
100mn - Crypto Holders
100mn - Below Poverty Line
76mn - Linkedin Users
75mn - Demat Account Holders
60mn - Income Tax Filers
53mn - Unemployed People

3/7
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(