If #AsianPaints went back to its ATH of 3600 by 2033 (28% upside from CMP) + profits tripled to ~12,000 Crs (12% CAGR - Last 3/5/10/15 yr PAT CAGR was on an avg 13%)
The 25 Yr Stock Px CAGR would STILL be 15% and the stock would STILL be trading at ~30x FY33 PAT
1/n
If #Fevicol (Pidilite) went back to its ATH by 2033(22% upside from CMP) + Profits tripled to +4,000 crs, (12% CAGR - last 3/5/10 yr PAT CAGR avg was 8%)
The 25 Yr Stock Px CAGR would STILL be 15% & the stock would STILL be trading at 35x FY33 Earnings
2/n
Did similar exercise on 5 BAAP stocks with a total Mkt Cap of $110 bn
All of them r trading between 5-12x PEG
DII + Retail are currently holding a Stinky bag worth ~$30bn in JUST THESE 5 NAMES
May the good Lord bless those poor souls for a world of pain awaits them
~Fin~
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Well. You and I are not the only ones to have believed this.
It has happened to your elder brother, your father, your chacha, your mama, heck even your grand dad when they were YOUR AGE
1/n
Most of us on this side of 40 have an avg investing experience of barely 10 years.
It is but natural that we are shaped by not only our own personal experiences but also of those around us, especially our own peer set within an age band of 10 years
2/n
Our fathers and uncles at some point were our age too. They had the same arrogance and confidence as the world was theirs for the taking when they were 25-30 years of age.
Each bull market brought different levels of misplaced arrogance and a false sense of "new normal'
3/n
I was a part of the institutional equities team that was bought out by Lehman Brothers in mid 2007.
For those who don't know, Lehman was the top of league tables globally in the investment banking world right next to Goldman & even
1/n
A cut above the Morgan Stanley's and JPMorgans of the world at the time. (From an employees point of view: The employee compensations, the work place, the quality of people, everything was absolutely top notch)
Now let's get to the story at hand
2/n
Our team at Lehman published a major flagship report in October 2007.
So much that we even kept a party at the Taj Mahal Hotel to inaugurate the report called
"India: Everything to play for"
All the bigwigs attended this party. From the top CIOs of Mutual Funds
3/n
Yesterday I said tht perhaps we r still some time away from a "Possible" durable market bottom. Why do I say that ? A thread with certain tables & graphs
Mind you: Mkts are like the multiverse. There are infinite ways in which things can ultimately play out!
So here goes
1/n
Nifty 500 Divergence from its 200 Daily Moving Avg. Barring 2008/09 and 2020 flash crash, most important bottoms have happened at the RED LINE. We are still ~8% away from there. Its Similar for Nifty 50 as well
2/n
This is one of my favorites. % of Stocks Above their 200 Daily Moving Avg. The Universe is a list of top 1000 Names (which qualify).
Important Mkt bottoms have happened at or below the RED line. We still need ~15-20% of stocks or 150-200 stocks to go BELOW their 200 DEMAs