Those rebuking S Jaishankar need to be given a basic 101 in economics and strategic warfare.
India is currently running a trade deficit in excess of $100bn (3% of GDP) which cannot be wished away.
China is and will remain a large economy than India for decades to come
1/n
They have more economic fire power and can last out a hot and a cold war far longer than India if we go head to head with them without outside powers intervening
China's GDP is ~5x the size of India. He is right about that
Get this: even at 1.5% GDP growth They will STILL
2/n
Sep 18, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
"This time it's different"
The most abused word on social media today.
Well. You and I are not the only ones to have believed this.
It has happened to your elder brother, your father, your chacha, your mama, heck even your grand dad when they were YOUR AGE
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Most of us on this side of 40 have an avg investing experience of barely 10 years.
It is but natural that we are shaped by not only our own personal experiences but also of those around us, especially our own peer set within an age band of 10 years
2/n
Jun 5, 2022 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Let me tell you guys a story.
I was a part of the institutional equities team that was bought out by Lehman Brothers in mid 2007.
For those who don't know, Lehman was the top of league tables globally in the investment banking world right next to Goldman & even
1/n
A cut above the Morgan Stanley's and JPMorgans of the world at the time. (From an employees point of view: The employee compensations, the work place, the quality of people, everything was absolutely top notch)
Now let's get to the story at hand
2/n
May 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Yesterday I said tht perhaps we r still some time away from a "Possible" durable market bottom. Why do I say that ? A thread with certain tables & graphs
Mind you: Mkts are like the multiverse. There are infinite ways in which things can ultimately play out!
So here goes
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Nifty 500 Divergence from its 200 Daily Moving Avg. Barring 2008/09 and 2020 flash crash, most important bottoms have happened at the RED LINE. We are still ~8% away from there. Its Similar for Nifty 50 as well
2/n
Feb 26, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Let me tell you a story where everyone was a winner till the music was playing:
Meet a group of HNIs. They decide to put $2.5mn in a VC fund as investors.
Now this group of HNIs float a start up.
They hire a few people, make a nice PPT and conjure up a biz model
1/6
They decide to raise $25mn by diluting 10% stake.
They hire a banker and go thru a bunch of investor meetings armed with their fancy PPT and futuristic biz plan.
Now they go to the same fund that they had first invested in.
2/6
Feb 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
SAIL: Steel Authority of India Ltd.
Let's discuss this stock.
What if I told you that CMP of 95 = 20-25 rupees seen in March 2020
Yes. 95=25 I kid u not!
How is that so?
Ok so it's just a little bit of simple maths & I will take you guys through it. Read on.
1/n
Let's look at some key stats:
Mcap: 40,000crs
Net Debt (Mar'22E): 20,000crs
EV (Enterprise Value) = 60,000Crs
Capacity by FY22/23: 21.4MT
Capacity 10 yrs ago: 12.6MT
Capex: 70,000crs for 8.8MT (8,000crs/MT)
Ok Not great TBH. Efficient guys do this in 4000-6000crs
2/n
Feb 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Here are some interesting Statistics about India to give you some perspective:
Jan 2018 - MCAP - $2.3 trn GDP $2.6trn
Jan 2022 - MCAP - (est) $4.3 trn GDP $3.3trn
Difference : in 4 Years for a total addition of $700bn in GDP, we rewarded Equity investors an additional $2,000bn in Mcap. That's almost 3x.
1/n
Corp Profit to GDP stands at about 2.5-2.7% roughly. So that's about an incremental $20bn in additional profits added into the total mix. And we are roughly valuing this at 100x
Note that This assumes ALL incremental GDP comes from listed companies
Yeah Seems about normal.
2/n
Oct 12, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
9.15am: First I will take a 2Lac rupee loan via a Digital lending mobile app . Time: 5 mins
9.20am: Next I will open a trading account with a discount broker. Time: 5 mins.
9.25am: Next I will watch three 2 min YouTube videos on trading options. Time: 6 mins
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9.31am: Wait for 9.45 candle (because youtuber trader said not to trade for first 30 mins)
9.45am: Punch in my first BUY order (well because that is all I was taught in all 3 videos - where is the BUY button on screen"
10.15am: 30 mins is too long so I close my trade
2/n
Jun 20, 2020 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Don't want 2 play party pooper but while small/midcap stocks can continue ringing d cash registers on d long side 4 d nxt few wks, TBH IMHO this is d time to b CASHING OUT - Not d best of times 2 b pyramiding or hunting actively for "breakouts" & "long term buy ideas"
1/n
Sure thing stocks fell vertically by 50-70% and have risen 50-300% frm the bottoms.
But most of them are STILL down for the Yr.
Narrative, flows, liquidity notwithstanding, stocks are SLAVE to earnings grwth
While we may see a near term resurgence in demand
2/n
Jun 13, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The stock market is inefficient. Period!
People buy & sell in the stock mkt daily.
These people have their own underlying biases & perhaps flawed thought processes which makes them take those buy sell decisions
When a trade is exchanged betwn an inexperienced & a smart
1/n
Investor, it transfers money frm one pocket to another
But when 2 idiots make up d entire mkt while d experienced hands sit by d sidelines, what do u call tht situation exactly ?
The madness of crowds.
2/n
May 2, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Let me tell u a story:
I am someone betwn d age of 35-45. Married. Hve a kid. Wife doesn't work. Am a higher/mid level exec wid a large Co.
I hve 5 yrs worth of savings in financial assets - stocks, bonds. I hve bought the flat tht I live in on a 20 yr loan in 2016.
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Hve 2 credit cards. No revolvers. But hve a 5 Yr car loan for a nice car bot 3 yrs back & 2 EMIs running for an iPhone and a big tv purchased last Diwali.
Usually take 1 dom trip every yr & a foreign trip perhaps once in 2 yrs. Go to movies 2x a month. Eat out 2x a week
2/7
Dec 30, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Betwn 1985-2000 & again 2009-19 host of "quality" & "growth" stks performed extremely well in India
Betwn 2003-08 was the era of cyclicals largely based on the "investment theme"
So 25 of last 35 yrs hve gone largely towards quality / growth theme . That's a long time !
1/7
Today most 'fear" over priced consumption related stocks and during onset of any mkt correction, most are cheering a fall in "expensive" consumption stocks .
What does all of this mean ?
5/7
Dec 14, 2019 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Did u know ?
After BBTC broke out of a 20 yr consolidation phase , it generated 82% CAGR over next 3 Yrs ?
After ABB broke out of a 10 yr consolidation phase, it generated 63% CAGR over next 3 Yrs ?
More to follow ...
After Kotak Bank broke out of a 11.5 Yr consolidation phase, it generated 63% CAGR over next 3 Yrs ?
After HUL broke out of a 11 Yr consolidation phase, it generated 22% CAGR over next 3 Yrs ?
