🧵 Reading final technical report CCSA recommended guidelines on alcohol consumption 2 drinks a week
ccsa.ca/sites/default/…
big part of the report is laying out disease risk based on trends from weekly alcohol consumption - both in relative risk changes & years of life lost
ccsa.ca/sites/default/…
big part of the report is laying out disease risk based on trends from weekly alcohol consumption - both in relative risk changes & years of life lost
Here is the table of risk change, the report uses lifelong abstainers as the control.
Darker the red, higher the risk.
Scary, yes?
Keep in mind, negatives numbers indicate a protective effect.
Darker the red, higher the risk.
Scary, yes?
Keep in mind, negatives numbers indicate a protective effect.
This is their data for “years of life lost per 1,000” & “per 100”
Clearly shows an increase in years lost by increased alcohol consumption.
Clearly shows an increase in years lost by increased alcohol consumption.
However, there are problems.
No where in this report do they establish what base risks are.
A relative number has points that are being compared.
If my risk for A is 0.01% and my alcohol habit increases it by 100%, my new risk for A becomes 0.02%.
1%? Now 2% risk.
Etc.
No where in this report do they establish what base risks are.
A relative number has points that are being compared.
If my risk for A is 0.01% and my alcohol habit increases it by 100%, my new risk for A becomes 0.02%.
1%? Now 2% risk.
Etc.
Without the actual risk numbers it is impossible to determine the magnitude of the risk change.
And it would be the same in reverse.
Both absolute and relative risk changes are needed to fully understand impact, but this is absent in the report.
And it would be the same in reverse.
Both absolute and relative risk changes are needed to fully understand impact, but this is absent in the report.
Now look at years of life lost.
Eyeballing their graph, averaging ~13 drinks a week yields 500 years of life lost per 1000 people.
Sounds like a lot.
Work backwards, that can mean 0.5 years of your life lost by averaging 13 drinks a week.
How can I say this?
Eyeballing their graph, averaging ~13 drinks a week yields 500 years of life lost per 1000 people.
Sounds like a lot.
Work backwards, that can mean 0.5 years of your life lost by averaging 13 drinks a week.
How can I say this?
The report doesn’t distinguish between types of drinking habits.
Binge drinking, gaps between drinks, etc all included, you can only work from averages.
Nor does it address the type of alcohol ( look at red wine & polyphenols, tannic acid etc)
But this isn’t my concern.
Binge drinking, gaps between drinks, etc all included, you can only work from averages.
Nor does it address the type of alcohol ( look at red wine & polyphenols, tannic acid etc)
But this isn’t my concern.
My main concern is what the reports policy implications are
One of the intents of the document is to lend towards policy change around alcohol, with more government involvement
What in the world would “minimum prices” mean? A set additional price of $1 per unit of alcohol? $2?
One of the intents of the document is to lend towards policy change around alcohol, with more government involvement
What in the world would “minimum prices” mean? A set additional price of $1 per unit of alcohol? $2?
It’s important to talk about alcohol in society.
But when I read this report, this isn’t it.
It just opens the door for fear based decisions and unnecessary government involvement.
End
#alcohol
But when I read this report, this isn’t it.
It just opens the door for fear based decisions and unnecessary government involvement.
End
#alcohol
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