Thread by @DofConsequence

1/ I haven't written about the Svatove-Kreminna axis because the fog of war is thick. Now that 🇺🇦 is knocking on Kreminna's door, we're getting clarity. Here's a short 🧵 explaining what's going on, & why it's a big deal.

h/t @AndrewPerpetua @BruckenRuski @Suriyakmaps for maps

2/ The first thing to understand is that this war is all about logistics. Ukraine's strategy has been to interdict GLOCs (ground lines of communication, aka supply lines), until 🇷🇺 is forced to retreat or die. That applies to Kharkiv too. It was only possible because of Kherson.

3/ Most people look at Google maps and wonder why Ukraine doesn't so things that seem obvious. The reason is usually because they're looking at the wrong map. @BruckenRuski tracks bridges & other infrastructure on the second map in his bio. Follow him if you don't already.

4/ You CANNOT understand what's happening on the ground unless you take bridges, waterways, rail lines, and other critical infrastructure into account.

Why is 🇷🇺 hammering Bakhmut) aside from the mines)? To try to force Ukraine to redeploy from Svatove-Kreminna axis to Bakhmut

5/ Why is Ukraine throwing everything into Svatove-Kreminna despite devastating casualties in Bakhmut? Because taking Svatove & Kreminna is a game changer. Let me explain why. (Hint: It's all about logistics.)

6/ Before the Kharkiv counter-offensive, there were 3 main GLOCs to supply the front around Lysychans'k and Severodonetsk. They were Kup'yans'k, Svatove, and Starobil's'k. Svatove & Starobil's'k were also used to repair damaged equipment.

7/ During the Kharkiv offensive, Ukraine captured Kup'yans'k. That forced Russia to retreat from Izyum, because there wasn't a way to supply it. (Izyum was supplied by roads from Kup'yans'k, by the way, not rail).

8/ The next logical target was Svatove. There are some indications that Ukraine *almost* routed them past Svatove into Starobil's'k, but Ukraine had to stop and consolidate their gains. That gave Russia an opportunity to setup a new defensive line west of Svatove.

9/ Ukraine has been hammering that defensive line ever since, all the way from Kup'yans'k down to Svatove & Kreminna. They haven't broken through yet, but they did put Svatove under fire control almost immediately. That has left Starobil's'k as the primary way to resupply 🇷🇺

10/ When Ukraine captures Svatove and Kreminna, it will give them a foothold to put Starobil's'k under fire control. (Technically it's within range of HIMARS now, but they can't just drive them to the front line.)

11/ Once that happens, Ukraine has options. They could move east to take Starobil's'k, or they could hammer that GLOC into oblivion like they did at Kherson, while attacking another section of the line.

12/ I don't know which option they'll choose, but either way, if they capture Svatove & Kreminna soon then they'll be in an excellent place to consolidate gains and weaken Russia's supply lines while they prepare for a spring offensive.

13/ One other point: Today, @Suriyakmaps reported Ukrehas made gains north / northeast of Bilohorivka in Luhansk. If confirmed, it means Ukraine is now advancing up both banks of the Siversky Donetsk River. On the north, they're threatening Kreminna with encirclement.

14/ On the south (if they continue to advance) they put Russia in the position of having their backs forced against both banks of the river. That's a terrible tactical situation, and would almost certainly result in Russia retreating from one or both banks.

/end 🧵

"Ukrehas" should have been "Ukraine." Damn you autocorrect.

https://twitter.com/DofConsequence/status/1616922394077335552?t=wFJDnV8hAAX0oOrrEuGl3A&s=19