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Bree Profile picture
Bree
@DofConsequence
Only in my pain, did I find my will. Only in my chaos, did I learn to be still. Only in my fear, did I find my might. Only in my darkness, did I see my light.
2 subscribers
Feb 21, 2023 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Hey, remember that one time 5 days ago that I said Russia would try to overthrow the Moldovan government, then pro-Russian politicians would appeal to Russia for aid? Also, remember how everyone told me I was wrong?

(open-ended 🧵) 2/ I really wish I had been wrong about Russia's goals. Also, I'm not saying that Russia will succeed. It looks like they'll try, though, even though their plan was uncovered.
Feb 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Today I tried to review @DarthPutinKGB's book "How to Tankie: The Anti Imperialist's Guide to the Modern World," but Amazon wouldn't let me--probably because I ran out of adult accounts and added myself as a teen. I'm not a teen so I'm reviewing it here a.co/d/2OMr5iu 2/ When Russia launched a fullscale invasion on Feb. 24, I was a tankie and didn't know it. Sure, I knew that invading a country and trying not to commit war crimes is as bad as invading a country and committing ALL the war crimes, but I didn't know there was a word for it.
Jan 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 100% agree. There is a place for the people who want to rappel out of helicopters, bust down doors, and clear buildings: the military. If you still want to go into law enforcement, do it once you've learned those things. 2/5 Many people assume that combat veterans shouldn't go into law enforcement, because they'll be quicker to shoot. That's rubbish. Being in the military teaches you when NOT to shoot. See the difference 👇? (1st pic is police in Ferguson, 2nd is 82nd airborne in Afghanistan)
Jan 23, 2023 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/ I agree. Here's how I feel about Abrams, F-16s, and everything else Ukraine has requested. There are people far more qualified than me to discuss the technicalities. The problem is, they disagree. So I say, let Ukraine be the tie breaker. Here's why. (a short 🧵) 2/ Most of the arguments I see against providing advanced weapons boil down to two things: Logistics (including maintenance) and training. I do not think either of those arguments carry any weight.
Jan 22, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
1/ This thread 👇 really took off, so I want to address a few points people have raised. They are: 1) why doesn't 🇺🇦 go for Troits'ke; 2) is the 🇷🇺 offensive at Bakhmut really designed to pull 🇺🇦 troops away from Svatove-Kreminna; 3) what about other supply lines into Luhansk? 🧵 2/ At face value, Troits'ke seems like a better objective than Svatove, because it would cut the GLOC to Starobil's'k and, as a side effect, Svatove. I think 🇺🇦would have loved to do it, but there a few reasons it wasn't feasible.
Jan 21, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
1/ I haven't written about the Svatove-Kreminna axis because the fog of war is thick. Now that 🇺🇦 is knocking on Kreminna's door, we're getting clarity. Here's a short 🧵 explaining what's going on, & why it's a big deal.

h/t @AndrewPerpetua @BruckenRuski @Suriyakmaps for maps 2/ The first thing to understand is that this war is all about logistics. Ukraine's strategy has been to interdict GLOCs (ground lines of communication, aka supply lines), until 🇷🇺 is forced to retreat or die. That applies to Kharkiv too. It was only possible because of Kherson.
Jan 21, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Since Twitter is once again going batshit crazy over the word "negotiate," I'll address it.

Negotiate doesn't mean "give up land." Some of Ukraine's goals, like the return of kidnapped Ukrainians, can *only* be achieved through negotiations.

🧵 2/ Let's say Ukraine wins an overwhelming victory on the battlefield, Russia flees Crimea, and Ukraine is liberated. Does that end the war? No.

For example, there's nothing to force Russia to return kidnapped slaves and children.
Jan 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 I swear, @mccaffreyr3 is the only retired high ranking general & commentator who understands what Ukraine needs to defeat Russia and accepts that they have the capability (& logistics) to do it. He's like a breath of fresh air in the information space. 2/6 He recognized what should have been obvious to everyone: A limited response caused by fear of escalation was a terrible mistake. And he's been proven right. Sure, Ukraine is winning the war, but at what cost? "Well over" 100k casualties according to Gen. Milley.
Jan 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Really good ISW update today. It confirms much of what I said over the last 2 days about Prigozhin, Gerasimov, the VDV's deployment to Svatove, etc. However, what's most interesting is they think Russia's attack on Bakhmut has culminated.

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… 2/5 I don't have enough knowledge of the situation on the ground to make an educated guess about 🇷🇺's remaining combat power around Bakhmut, but I think it's likely that 🇷🇺 has had to redeploy units to Svatove-Kreminna. The situation there seems to be deteriorating for 🇷🇺.
Jan 8, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
8/ I think that failing to understand that is the biggest mistake most analysts made. Most of them, including strategists I respect, couldn't accept the idea of an entire population--40+ million people--giving the finger to Putin and fighting until the end, no matter the cost. 9/ They didn't envision a fight where mothers knocked down drones with jars of tomatoes, civilian systems (IIRC the DMV was one) were repurposed to ID Russian troop movements, or tanks and "elite" troops were destroyed by fleets of hobby drones dropping grenades on their head.
Oct 17, 2022 • 19 tweets • 9 min read
1/ In early July, Ukraine said they were amassing a "million-strong" army. Most viewed it as a rallying cry, not a concrete plan. I didn't. In this 🧵I'll share why I believe Ukraine has much greater reserves than we realize, and speculate about how they did it. 2/ First, let's talk about concrete numbers. Contrary to popular belief, 🇺🇦 has never been outnumbered. In February 2022, they had about 900k reservists (someone with military experience in the last 5 years). What they lacked was equipment books.google.com/books?id=vOFeE…
Oct 16, 2022 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
1/ I know there's a lot of concern about nukes right now. It's understandable. I often tell people they shouldn't worry about it (yet). There are many reasons for that, but in this thread I want to highlight two: "escalate to de-escalate" and "strategic ambiguity." 2/ When it comes to potential nuclear war, nuclear powers have a problem: All the available evidence indicates that nobody wants to do it--even when their nuclear doctrine says they should, and even when failing to act could destroy their country. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…
Oct 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 This is how RUMINT spreads. You take one or two tweets that are true and are great news. But that's not enough the big accounts. It has to be even better.

Tweet 1: An Iranian drone is downed or crashed intact. This is TRUE (as far as I know). 2/4 It's retweeted in English by @CasualArtyFan, and it confirms the Google auto translation of the original tweet. This is also TRUE (as far as I know), and the source is linked.
Oct 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
You know how when you go to retweet an article, Twitter asks if you want to read it first? This is why. Musk is a giant baby, but the letter was sent in September and it said SpaceX couldn't afford to projected cost of $400 million over the next year. Nothing to do with Musk. And yes, I know that many of the terminals were purchased by the Pentagon, but the article says the letter was responding to a request from Ukraine for more. SpaceX directed them to the Pentagon. Based on this, there doesn't seem to be anything nefarious going on.
Oct 13, 2022 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/ I haven't yet speculated on the cause & source of the explosion on the Kerch Bridge. However, I think we now enough data to draw at least one conclusion about the method, and to engage in some speculation about who was (or wasn't) behind it. A short 🧵 @kdvncm @BruckenRuski 2/ Caveat: I have surgery in a few hours and am jacked up on pain meds. If something doesn't make sense, comment and I'll try to clarify tomorrow. Now, to the fun stuff.

Most of the speculation I've read has been about the method that was used. Truck bomb? Boat? ATACMS?
Oct 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/3 This! This this this! It's what I've been saying since February. The parallels between what victim-blamers say and what western pro-Russian propagandists say are eerie. For example... 2/3 I said it at least as early as April...
Oct 4, 2022 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Yet again we are seeing large swaths of territory liberated with either A) no footage, or B) carefully curated footage. One day we'll find out how much of it is 1) Ukraine embedding PR with troops, and 2) excellent opsec by the troops themselves... 2/ To clarify for those who didn't read my earlier tweets about opsec, I think much of the footage we see--even footage that appears to be random, taken by individual soldiers--is filmed by media specialists, sent to a special unit for screening, then...
Sep 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
👇 There's no indication that 🇷🇺 has managed to form a strong line of defense to protect their rear flank. Even worse (for them) is that they have to protect 100s of kilometers along the front, without knowing where 🇺🇦 might attack next. They're spread very thin. They say in war that the other side gets a vote. However, based on public info, I don't see a way for 🇷🇺 to hold west of Severodonetsk. They might do something like this 👇. Others have pointed out that's not very defensible terrain. True. But 🇷🇺 doesn't have many good options.
Sep 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Short 🧵 on force ratio. I haven't seen many people talk about it. Understanding it helps explain A) why 🇺🇦's successes will be taught in war colleges, B) why U.S. is adapting our strategies in real time, & C) one reason why so many analysts were wrong about the war. 2/ Force ratio is a complex topic. It's been the subject of serious study since antiquity. This thread is a /very/ high level summary.

The graphic below shows the minimum ratios that militaries have for various types of operations. Note the infamous 3:1 ratio we all hear about.
Apr 21, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
@TAPSTRIMEDIA 1/n There's a difference between acting like it can't happen and taking a calculated risk that it won't happen. I'll give 3 reasons why there won't be a nuclear exchange, then 1 way to handle it if I'm wrong.

1. Putin can't personally launch nukes. A nuclear exchange requires... @TAPSTRIMEDIA 2/n...many people down the chain of command. Are that many people willing to destroy their country, their families, and themselves? I argue "no." In fact, the 2 times Russian doctrine said to use nukes, officers did refuse. Nobody wants to end all life.

2. Russia's nukes...