When markets are grinding down it is important to have long short trend and momentum strategies.
When the markets are panic puking it is important to have market puts protection.
Safer to use both together, but knowing when to overweight one or the other is alpha #regimes
Holding Zee Puts while trading into Stage 3 will be one of the biggest trades this bear market. Not saying that is now but it could be. Until CQ trades Stage 3 allocations I will not know exactly.
What would happen to the VIX if bonds and equities, let’s use SPY and TLT in this example, are down > -750 bps intraday?
Like in CQ pinned tweet.
The only safe havens are cash (USD) and equity volatility in limit down markets.
and cash equivalents ofc (US T-Bills)
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Every bear market rally people have called for a new bull market and been rekt. Now that inflation has come off short-term for a bit they are more confident ... not applicable rn but wait until they discover that deflation is actually bad for risk assets when in a recession.
Stage 4, my lieges
You want to be long to the fucking zig zag on bonds … longer duration the better. It will come but not now.
Bonds are a short in Stages 1, 2 and 3 of the 4 Stages of inflationary bear markets.