Henry Gao Profile picture
Jan 22 7 tweets 3 min read
New Chinese TV drama #三体电视剧 (Three Body) is interesting to watch, not only because it is based on a @HugoAwards-winning novel, but because it helps to understand China’s highly-confrontational wolf warrior diplomacy which kept emphasizing "struggle".
As stated in the first episode by a Chinese general, the fact that we humans have survived from the Neolithic age until today without major catastrophes is a pure coincidence.

Similarly, the Chinese leadership believes that the peaceful period since 1978 is a pure coincidence.
Now the period is over, which is why Xi has been emphasizing that the world is not peaceful at all, as he stated in his video call with @POTUS last year.

Three Body is full of metaphors with striking resemblances to China’s history since the mid-1970s:
Ye Wenjie sending signal to extraterritorial forces to help end the craziness on earth
V.
Deng sending signal to the US to help end the chaos in China;

The shattering of people’s faith in classical physics theory upon contact with the aliens from Three Body
V.
The shattering of people’s faith in communism upon contact with the West;

Those who argue for surrender to the Three Body aliens v. those who want to fight them
V.
the “spiritual Americans” v. the “patriots” or Wumao
More broadly, the Dark Forest theory, and the hypothesis that higher-level civilisation will always try to contain the development of lower-level civilization also help to understand the US-China tech competition, and China’s efforts to upgrade the tech in “neck-choking” sectors.
I don't know if Xi is also a science-fiction fan, but Communism, for those who understand its origin, is definitely both science and fiction.

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More from @henrysgao

Jan 18
In case anyone thinks that the tech crackdown is over with Didi allowed back on the app stores, China has just announced that a national ride-hailing platform will be online soon, and it will cover 90% of the market capacity, which, btw, was Didi's market before the crackdown.
Why a national platform?
Because data, esp geolocation data, is deemed too sensitive to be left to private firms, as I explained 2 years ago:
It is ironic that this announcement came right after Liu He's @Davos remarks that China will not practice a planned economy, which is not surprising as I said last year that his remarks must be read to the contrary.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
Who is China’s new US Ambassador Xie Feng?

Hints can be drawn from the Party Class he gave last Oct entitled “Study and implement XJP Thought on Diplomacy, Promote Big Power Diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”, where he spoke on how to “stick to principles, dare to fight”.
He described the three major encounters with @JoeBiden administration in military terms, and called the Mar 2021 Anchorage meeting an “ambush” where “the US ignored the basic rules of decency and hospitality & went beyond the fixed agenda to interfere in China’s domestic affairs”
The July 2022 meeting held in Tianjin was described as a “counter strike” where China accused the US approach of “competition, confrontation and cooperation” as an attempt to suppress China, where China responded by presenting the US with two lists:
Read 7 tweets
Nov 7, 2022
Great story from @WSJ confirming my earlier predictions
that China is on the road to reopening. But I do not think that the reopening will be slow with no fixed timeline as mentioned in the article.
wsj.com/articles/china…
I agree that the bureaucrats have various concerns, but these concerns do not matter as I have been saying.

To understand how reopening would happen, we only need to understand the action pattern of one person.
His motto, as I observed before, is "I will do what I got to do, even if thousands of people are against me."

So when the reopening happens, it will be as drastic as the lock down in Wuhan, and as resolute as the crackdown on the tuition companies.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18, 2022
Interesting comparison but I'd caution that this comparison is not accurate as it's based on the full-text version of the 18th v orally-delivered version of the 20th. If you compare the full-text version of the 20th the results are different. For example, reform appeared 48 times
while open appeared 28 times, rather than 16 and 14 times as listed in the chart.

But I'm always skeptical of the value of simple word frequency comparisons. As I warned on @VOAChinese program last night, bigger problem is that Xi has been putting new wine in the same old bottle
A case in point is the word 开放(Open). Traditionally the word refers to opening to the West, i.e., US and EU, but if you read the 20th Party report carefully, the flagship project for the opening has become the Belt and Road Initiative, which are now the main target of opening.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7, 2022
Want to know China's policies for the next 5 years (or maybe longer)?

Just look at the meeting summary of the 27th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms, which passed 5 major documents:
1.”Opinions on Improving the New Whole-nation-efforts System for Tackling Key Problems in Key Core Technologies under the Conditions of a Socialist Market Economy",
2”Several Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Academician System",
3”Opinions on Comprehensively
Strengthening Resource Conservation Work",
4”Opinions on Deepening the Construction of Rural Collective Operational Properties’ Guiding Opinions on the Pilot Work of Land Use in the Market",
5”Opinions on Further Deepening Reform and Promoting the Healthy Development of the
Read 9 tweets
Aug 28, 2022
For a long time, the inward-looking “闭关锁国” (Seclusion and Lockdown) policy in the Ming and Qing Dynasties has been regarded as one of the main reasons for China’s decline in the 500 years before 1949. However, a new paper tries to challenge that view. Image
Titled <A New Probe into the Problem of "Seclusion and Lockdown of the Country" in Ming & Qing>, the paper argues that the policy shall be called “自主限关” (Autonomous Self-restriction), which is “intended to safeguard national sovereignty & prevent Western colonial aggression”. Image
The measures taken by the Ming and Qing dynasties on the exchanges between China and the West were mainly restrictive and did not completely close the door of China. "Autonomous Self-restriction" is an autonomous behavior, and its motivation is to maintain national security and Image
Read 13 tweets

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