Thread by @CL4Syr

The #Donbass shelling that provoked Russia's invasion, pt.1. Start: Ukraine's plans & buildup from March 2021 for "peculiarities" of "de-occupation." New 🇺🇦 shelling then to 18 Feb. and some of the return fire analyzed, emphasis on #OSCE monitoring. 1/5
libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donbas…

2/5 People moved back into homes in #Donetsk repaired from old shelling, 2 weeks before 1/Nov/21 attack damaged them again. 18 shells, 122mm, prob. from NW. OSCE app. never tries to investigate, maps impacts late as 2 Nov. w/fudged trajectory.

3/5 1 Dec. RU complains half of Ukraine's army surrounds DPR & LPR. Pause in shelling, Dec-Jan, then electric substation hit 29 Jan. from NW, western-made 60mm shells. OSCE might observe/map the attack, but differently, and app. doesn't try to investigate, says nothing.

4/5 Near-daily shelling to the 16 Feb, heavy from there. But LPR forces to the SSE prob. hit that kindergarten on 17/2, likely accident. Next day 2 electric stations damaged by UA shelling from the NNW, not accident. OSCE SMM misses 1, gets the other, has the front line wrong?

5/5 water system hit hard from 19 Feb. Alleged 🇺🇦 saboteurs planning to blow water plants, etc. stopped early 20/2. So? on 21/2 2 artillery attacks on DFS cut water to 128k (+ Odd OSCE follow-up). 🇺🇦 turns off water to Luhansk same day, keeps hitting the water, blames 🇷🇺 4 all.

4/5 Near-daily shelling to the 16 Feb, heavy from there. But LPR forces to the SSE prob. hit that kindergarten on 17/2, likely accident. Next day 2 electric stations damaged by UA shelling from the NNW, not accident. OSCE SMM misses 1, gets the other, has the front line wrong?

5/5 water system hit hard from 19 Feb. Alleged 🇺🇦 saboteurs planning to blow water plants, etc. stopped early 20/2. So? on 21/2 2 artillery attacks on DFS cut water to 128k (+ Odd OSCE follow-up). 🇺🇦 turns off water to Luhansk same day, keeps hitting the water, blames 🇷🇺 4 all.🤨