ONCE YEARLY? Agree with most on here that 1) yearly vaccination needed but for older & more vulnerable (co-morbidities multiple, immunocompromised); 2) May not able to adapt mRNA vax quickly enough
FDA considers major shift in COVID vaccine strategy npr.org/sections/healt…
to new subvariants (e.g. our last bivalent is against BA4/BA5 but Omicron up to XBB1.5) & not clearly better due to adaptive power of cellular immunity (see thread on B cells) so any boost probably ok. Latter in line with @WHO endemic plan put out on March 30, 2022
Immunity works beautifully. Lancet ID 30 million people UK study shows who is still at risk after 2 doses of vaccine for severe disease (>80, immunocompromised, multiple 5 comorbidities) & needed boost. B cells adapt antibodies they make - B cell thread:
Seeing ? on yearly shot which is fair as lot of people who follow my twitter know immunology!
Why would older/vulnerable need? Lancet shows us which groups still at risk after 2 doses: thelancet.com/journals/lance…
How long do T cells last? Half life LONG pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33408181/
How long do B cells last? We don't know for COVID but this study found survivors of 1918 influenza pandemic who were 91-101 years old (9 decades later) and found their B cells (still intact) could still produce antibodies directed against the 1918 strain! nature.com/articles/natur…
And finally, agree with #covidtwitter that FDA - like the WHO on 3/30/22 and the European equivalent of the CDC on 4/27/22 -trying to come up with a plan for endemic COVID management since 1) can't eradicate; 2) have excellent vaccines & therapeutics sfchronicle.com/opinion/openfo…
BOOSTERS & IMMUNITY: Reposting this AMAZING article by the @BarouchLab on immunity, variants & boosters to inform discussion (see piece we wrote Lancet ID: thelancet.com/journals/lanin… too)
Dr. Barouch piece in @NEJM - let's consider our booster strategy nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
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Excess deaths during COVID are very complicated & vary by region & duration/degree of lockdown; this was very true at Ward 86 (our HIV clinic at county hospital); sorry to hear this for the city of San Francisco; very much appreciate hard work of addiction teams at SFGH
Good article-excess mortality in COVID likely neglect other med care: "in countries like Belgium/Sweden [highly vax'd], ratio between excess deaths & COVID deaths 1..net change mortality [from] other diseases/injuries during pandemic period minimal" there thelancet.com/article/S0140-…
In US (like article in SF), excess deaths in young people up from accidents, overdoses, suicides, homicides, and internal causes from neglect of medical care (no, not from the vaccines). Very disruptive time for other services & caused despair bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Yes immune system works
-Please see cellular immunity pinned tweet; so many papers! Will post more
-This is 7th human coronavirus; we know how coronaviruses work
-Retroviruses (HIV: start RNA & go to DNA) & coronaviruses (RNA virus) different
-Basic principles of immunology hold
Below simple tutorial I hope is how cellular immunity & immune memory work- there will always be variants that may evade antibodies but we are lucky immune system more than antibodies! T and B cells too for variants; Media, good science reporting please! medscape.com/viewarticle/98…
Cellular immunity (high population immunity from the vaccine, natural infection or hybrid immunity) why hospitalizations not rising MA (& why hospitalizations so linked to vaccine rates with delta & BA1; now high immunity from natural/hybrid too)
EXTREMES: Alan Watts (“This is it”): “Furthermore, so far from being the smug rationalization of a Mr. Pangloss, the experience has a tendency to arise in situations of total extremity or despair, when the individual finds himself without any alternative but to surrender himself
entirely. Something of this kind came to me in a dream when I was about eight years old. I was sick at the time and almost delirious with fever, and in the dream I found myself attached face-downward and spread-eagled to an immense ball of steel which was spinning about the earth
I knew in this dream with complete certainty that I was doomed to be spun in this sickening and terrifying whirl forever and ever, and the conviction was so intense that there was nothing for it but to give up—for this was hell itself and nothing lay before me but a literal
NEW ANTIVIRAL FOR COVID: This one (related to remdesivir so a nucleoside analog- stops viral replication) is being compared to Paxlovid so will first remind you of Paxlovid data (which is a protease inhibitor- also stops viral replication). Both
should work against variants (as will molnupiravir) since they work upstream from production of the virus, variant or not. I have molnupiravir thread elsewhere which I will update since Lancet published PANORAMIC findings on it- this new one called VV116 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir–ritonavir) recommended & under EUA in many countries but access worldwide more limited & does have drug-drug interactions with the ritonavir (although just short period 5 days). VV116 is a deuterated remdesivir hydrobromide with oral bioavailability
EXCESS DEATHS YOUNGER: Seem to be from delayed medical care (even after vaccines; fear-based narrative & closures), not vax. How do we know? Highly vax'd Sweden didn't have excess deaths in young, had COVID mortality until vax. Other med care important too thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-…
My advice 2023: 1) work on non-communicable diseases/preventative health to make up lost time; 2) work on HIV, malaria, TB, antimicrobial resistance, vaccine hesitancy in ID; 3) Boost older/vulnerable COVID vax each winter; 4) Global COVID oral therapies
COVID does not have features of an eradicable pathogen- knew early 2020. How do we bring a pathogen under control?
Before biomedical advances, natural immunity; now we have advances for COVID! Vaccines & therapeutics. Will cover oral antivirals (new one!) in 2023; happy New Year!
TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS: Agree it's difficult to stop spread of highly transmissible respiratory viruses (which is why China abandoned this strategy although immunity is way to get through pandemic & they need higher rates of vaccination & boosting in elderly), But testing
prior to travel from China, from either an epidemiological or human rights perspective, makes little sense when SARS-CoV-2 is already circulating widely (such border controls are akin to confiscating matches after the forest is already ablaze). This paper pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33581746/
shows us such restrictions like pre-travel testing includes generating a false sense of security, discouraging travelers from engaging transparently with authorities, and potentially disincentivizing open disclosure by countries during future outbreaks; does not limit variants