$PANR  At current pricing, the 'Alkaid' production stream would generate approximately $40,000 per day in gross revenue once facilities are installed to separate and capture the NGLs and condensate. #PANR
In order to demonstrate potential project economics, Pantheon has developed a conceptual development model for the Alkaid anomaly (not including the shallower Shelf Margin Deltaic ("SMD") formation which is also oil bearing) based upon .. $PANR #PANR
the actual flow rates (137.5 barrels per 1000 ft of unblocked wellbore - and for conservatism ignoring potential improvements to flow rate that may arise as the well cleans up beyond its present 40%) and actual hydrocarbon mix (oil, NGLs & condensate) detailed in its .. $PANR
announcement of 30 December, 2022. At current pricing, this production stream would generate approximately $40,000 per day in gross revenue once facilities are installed to separate and capture the NGLs and condensate. $PANR #PANR
The modelling which was undertaken for illustrative purposes only, supports that the Alkaid project can be commercial at current production rates and hydrocarbon composition. A sensitivity table is provided below showing NPV's and IRR's at various pricing scenarios. $PANR #PANR
A detailed analysis of the valuation of the components of the liquid hydrocarbon stream at Alkaid#2 has been undertaken and it is estimated that the current production mix of oil/condensate and NGL's would achieve +80%-90%of the Alaska North Slope Crude price ("ANS crude") $PANR
ANS crude usually trades at a premium to WTI. Some of the more valuable NGL's known to be present but which were not measurable at this point have been excluded from this calculation for conservatism, but would be extracted in a development scenario, providing additional upside.
Additionally, should the ratio of oil continue to improve as the Alkaid#2 well cleans up beyond the present 40%, then this would provide additional upside to the modelled numbers above. $PANR #PANR

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More from @diegodoesdo

Aug 23, 2022
Theta West #1 Well - Independent Expert VAS 'Volatiles Analysis Service' Report Received 👀

Conclusions: Great Bear Pantheon's Theta West 1 drilled a world-class petroleum system comprised of...

$PANR #PANR
1) A 1,360 ft thick continuous column of oil-bearing cuttings. The actual length of the oil column is unquestionably greater than 1,360ft, as the base of the analyzed cuttings' oil column is the TD of the well, and the oil in the cuttings shows no sign of tapering off
$PANR #PANR
2) High quality oil of 37-39 degrees API gravity.

3) Abundant good quality reservoirs.

$PANR #PANR
Read 10 tweets
Aug 18, 2022
WHI View: "The successful casing of just over one mile of horizontal lateral represents, in our opinion, a significant achievement that essentially secures the well and thereby greatly reduces the operational risks to the well. " $PANR #PANR
"The well logs are again corroborating the geological and petrophysical (fluid) model of Pantheon Resources, which has largely been premised on the analysis of 3D seismic data. " $PANR #PANR
"In short, drilling operations have been successfully completed and the scene is now set to advance towards fracking and producing the well, with logs continuing to point towards a significant increase to the pre-drill oil in place and recoverable oil estimate." $PANR #PANR
Read 4 tweets
Aug 18, 2022
$PANR have drilled a 5,300ft lateral... What can we expect?
I anticipated that they would drill ~5,000ft in my previous write-up, here are some highlights...
“I expect that they aim for a middle-of-the-road estimate with 5000’ lateral for Alkaid-2.”  #PANR link.medium.com/5hJAyBMoAsb
I fit the below model to follow Tele’s 80% at 8,000’ lateral, he noted this represents the baseline and we could expect the results to be higher to an 80% probability. (See Below)

For modelling Alkaid-2 I will use 5000’ laterals, this gave us a EUR of 679mbo. $PANR #PANR
In modelling out Alkaid-2 I had several reference points, which unfortunately at times didn’t match up. Being that the data is not widely available, I had to make some judgement calls about what we should think is the most likely scenario. $PANR #PANR
Read 15 tweets
Aug 18, 2022
Alkaid #2 Well - Horizontal Lateral Target Depth Reached

Drilling operations at the Alkaid #2 horizontal well bore have now concluded, reaching a total measured depth of 14,300 feet ('ft') which includes a lateral length of 5,300 ft.
#PANR $PANR
A 5 ½ inch liner has been run, set, cemented at the bottom and tested for integrity. $PANR is extremely pleased that drilling of the lateral section was accomplished smoothly and without incident.

#PANR
As previously announced, future production wells will have a targeted lateral length of ~8000 ft. However, as this is #PANR first horizontal well on the NP, and to minimize operational risk and still deliver the production data needed to optimize development of the resource...
Read 10 tweets
Jul 4, 2022
🛢️I've just posted a write-up looking into #PANR post-Alkaid-2. It's based on a 3yr forecast which feeds revenues from modelled horizontal wells & future funding🛢️
I try to answer; What will $PANR look like in bear, most likely and best case going forward
diegodoesdo.medium.com/what-is-most-l…
TD: LR
- Pantheons analysts are under-pricing the firm, even on their metrics
- NSI and Lee Keeling likely modelled using Babu formulas
- Pantheon is likely underestimating flow rates
- Alkaid-2 is not certain to be long-term but could be $PANR #PANR
- Oil prices are likely to be $100 next year
- Modelling suggests Pantheon will need cash in 2023
- Farm-out/Buy-in deal should be done if it favours Pantheon
- Debt should be used over an equity raise - if it comes to that $PANR #PANR
Read 5 tweets
May 28, 2022
🚧 Nabors 105AC 🚧
The rig that will drill Alkaid-2 this July, on location in Summer 2012 drilling Alcor-1 for Great Bear. Paid for by Halliburton and chosen to drill horizontal wells.
👇 Below are some highlights from this 2013 article. #panr $panr geoexpro.com/articles/2013/…
“Great Bear’s initial 2-well drilling programme was completed in late November 2012, where they recovered over 183m of whole core from the Alcor #1 and Merak #1 wells and sampled oil from the conventional Kuparuk sand.” #panr $panr
“These operations were fully funded by Halliburton Energy Services, Inc. satisfying the earning provisions for a 25% working interest in 510 km. and an option to provide services in just that area.” $panr #panr
Read 12 tweets

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